Description
Regional climate projections are a key element for adaptation to climate change, but are afflicted with high uncertainties. Therefore a thorough validation is essential to provide users with plausible, defensible and actionable information in order to avoid ill-informed decisions. This training school presents general aspects of downscaling, including a brief discussion of different approaches, and a general introduction to validation of climate models. The focus will be on the VALUE validation framework, and a critical discussion of the difficulties in validating climate projections. Lectures will be complemented by hands-on exercises. The VALUE framework starts from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models?

Go to day
  • Monday, 26 October 2015
    • 08:30 - 21:00
      • 08:30 Registration 30'
      • 09:00 Welcome, Conference scope 30'
        Speakers: Douglas Maraun (Wegener Center, Graz), Erika Coppola (ICTP)
      • 09:30 Coffee break 30' ( AGH Cafeteria )
      • 10:00 Brief history and review of downscaling 45'
        Speaker: Douglas Maraun (Wegener Center, Graz)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:00 Decision making in a climate context 1h30'
        Speaker: Bojan Srdjevic (University of Novi Sad)
        Material: Slides
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30' ( AGH Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 Hands-on Session 3h0' ( AGH Informatics Lab )
        Speaker: Bojan Srdjevic (University of Novi Sad)
        Material: Slides
      • 19:30 Ice Breaker - Reception 1h30' ( Trieste - Italy ( AGH Cafeteria ) )
  • Tuesday, 27 October 2015
    • 09:00 - 17:00
      • 09:00 Dynamical downscaling 45'
        Speaker: Sven Kotlarski (ETH Zurich)
        Material: Slides
      • 09:45 Perfect prognosis statistical downscaling 45'
        Speaker: Joanna Wibig (University of Lodz)
        Material: Slides
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( AGH Cafeteria )
      • 11:00 Model output statistics and bias correction 45'
        Speaker: Douglas Maraun (Wegener Center, Graz)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:45 Validation in a climate information distillation context; the VALUE framework 45'
        Speaker: Douglas Maraun (Wegener Center, Graz)
        Material: Slides
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30' ( AGH Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 Hands-on Session 3h0' ( AGH Informatics Lab )
        Speakers: Sven Kotlarski (ETH Zurich), Douglas Maraun (Wegener Center, Graz)
  • Wednesday, 28 October 2015
    • 09:00 - 17:00
      • 09:00 Uncertainties of regional climate projections 1h30'
        Speakers: Sven Kotlarski (ETH Zurich), Joanna Wibig (University of Lodz), Douglas Maraun (Wegener Center, Graz)
        Material: Slides
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( AGH Cafeteria )
      • 11:00 Validation for extreme events 45'
        Speaker: Joanna Wibig (University of Lodz)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:45 Pitfalls I 45'
        Speaker: Sven Kotlarski (ETH Zurich)
        Material: Slides
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30' ( AGH Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 Hands-on Session 3h0' ( AGH Informatics Lab )
        Speaker: Douglas Maraun (Wegener Center, Graz)
  • Thursday, 29 October 2015
    • 09:00 - 17:00
      • 09:00 Validation for temporal variability 45'
        Speaker: Radan Huth (Academy of Sciences, Prague)
        Material: Slides
      • 09:45 Validation for spatial variability 45'
        Speaker: Radan Huth (Academy of Sciences, Prague)
        Material: Slides
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( AGH Cafeteria )
      • 11:00 Validation for physical processes I+II 1h30'
        Speakers: Pedro Soares (Universidade de Lisboa), Douglas Maraun (Wegener Center, Graz)
        Material: Slides
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30' ( AGH Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 Hands-on Session 3h0' ( AGH Informatics Lab )
        Speaker: Douglas Maraun (Wegener Center, Graz)
  • Friday, 30 October 2015
    • 09:00 - 17:00
      • 09:00 Pitfalls II 45'
        Speaker: Douglas Mauraun (Wegener Center, Graz)
        Material: Slides
      • 09:45 Preparation of final presentations 2h15'
      • 12:00 Lunch break 1h30' ( AGH Cafeteria )
      • 13:30 Final presentations 3h0'
      • 16:30 Final remarks and feeback 30'