Starts 4 Sep 2017
Ends 8 Sep 2017
KIgali - Rwanda
This school focuses on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction research and related climate products, as many management decisions in agriculture and food security, water, disaster risk reduction and health fall into this range. There is an urgent need to improve the resiliency of tropical developing countries to climate and weather shocks. Improved subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of rainfall hold the promise of effective early warning systems for floods and droughts, and actionable information for decision makers in agriculture, water management, and public health. Examples include the timing of the onset of rainy seasons, timing on monsoon breaks and active spells, and the probability of high-impact weather events. This school will expose participants from operational centers and universities to a major new initiative to bridge the gap between weather and seasonal climate forecasts; it will train them to access the new multi-model S2S database of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, and make analyses of forecast skill and predictability mechanisms. • Mechanisms of subseasonal predictability: MJO, atmosphere interactions with land surface and ocean, teleconnections • Modeling in the subseasonal range: initialization, ensemble generation, design of forecast systems • Introduction to the new S2S multi-model database of subseasonal forecasts • Practical training sessions on analysis and skill assessment of ensemble prediction systems in the S2S database for the countries of the participants • Teleconnections and variability Speakers: F. Kucharski (ICTP) A.G. Munoz (AOS/GFDL - Princeton University, USA) B. Safari (University of Rwanda) A. Tompkins (ICTP) As funds are strictly limited, travel grants are only available for applicants based in Africa, with priority given to those from Rwanda.
**DEADLINE: 23/06/2017**
**DEADLINE: 23/06/2017**


Fred Kucharski (ICTP-Trieste), Bonfils Safari (University of Rwanda-East Africa Institute for Fundamental Research), ICTP Scientific Contact: Adrian Tompkins