Scientific Calendar Event



Starts 19 Jul 2017 11:00
Ends 19 Jul 2017 12:00
Central European Time
ICTP
Central area, 2nd floor, ex-SISSA bldg.
Based on several reanalysis and observational datasets, this study suggests that the Silk Road pattern (SRP), a major teleconnection pattern stretching across Eurasia in boreal summer, shows clear interdecadal variations that explain approximately 50% of its total variance. The interdecadal SRP features a strong barotropic wave train along the Asian subtropical jet, resembling its interannual counterpart. Besides, it features a second weak wave train over the northern part of Eurasia, leading to larger meridional scale than its interannual counterpart. The interdecadal SRP contributes to approximately 10~20% of the summer precipitation’s variance and 40% of the summer surface air temperature’s variance over large domains of Eurasia. Especially, the interdecadal SRP shows two regime shifts in 1974 and 1998, respectively, and the latter explains over 40% of the observed rainfall reduction over Northeastern Asia and over 40% of the observed warming over Eastern Europe, West Asia, and Northeastern Asia, highlighting its importance in the recent decadal climate variations over Eurasia. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) does not show significant linear relationship with the interdecadal SRP. However, the Monte Carlo bootstrapping resampling analysis suggests that the positive (negative) phase of spring and summer AMO facilitates the occurrence of negative (positive) phase of the interdecadal SRP significantly, implying plausible prediction potentials for the interdecadal variations of the SRP.