Starts 28 Mar 2018 11:00
Ends 28 Mar 2018 12:00
Central European Time
Central Area, 2nd floor, old SISSA building, via Beirut
The human population is currently the largest ever, and it is still increasing. Even though the fertility rate is decreasing, the growth is maintained by the unbalance in the age distribution with a median around age 30y, and by a steadily decreasing mortality rate in developing countries. Uncertainties in the evolution of the main parameters mean that around the year 2100 the human population is predicted to be in a wide range — from 9.6 to 13 billion people at 95% confidence level. This uncertainty corresponds to different scenarios and perspectives for humanity as a whole. In this talk I will give an overview of the basics of the mathematical models, the current data, and the current predictions.