Description
The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) is orgamzmg, in collaboration with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), a Summer School on Attribution and Prediction of Extreme Events, to be held at ICTP, Trieste (Italy), from 21 July to 1 August 2014. 
 
PURPOSE OF THE SCHOOL 
The purpose of the School is to train students with outstanding research potential in the techniques that will be required to better understand observed and future changes in extremes. There is a pressing need to educate future researchers in the techniques given the prominence and importance of societal and scientific questions about extreme events that are receiving increasingly intense attention in the minds of the public and their policy makers. The School will be organized around three broad topic areas:

• Statistical theory underpinning extreme value analysis; 
• Detection and attribution of observed changes in the frequency and/or intensity of extremes; 
• Event attribution, and the physical mechanisms that are involved in amplifying and/or extending the duration of some specific extreme events such as heat waves. 
 
The School will also educate students in the development of some of the key data resources that are used to place current extremes into a historical context, and will provide insights into some of the emerging thinking on the near term prediction of the likelihood of extreme events. 
The School will also teach the importance of understanding the physical mechanisms that produce many of the most impactful extreme events, including "complex" hydrologic extremes such as drought and the role of coupled land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms in amplifying extreme temperature events. 

FORMAT 
The two-week School will consist of lectures combined with the practical application of the material covered in the lectures through introductory lab sessions and a set of research problems that will form the core of the School. The research topics will include data set development, detection and attribution, extreme events prediction, and event attribution. These will rely on the use of the advanced analysis techniques that will be taught at the School and an understanding of the relevant underpinning physical processes.
Go to day
  • Monday, 21 July 2014
    • 08:15 - 21:00
      • 08:15 Registration 45' ( Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1) )
      • 09:00 What is an extreme event? 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: D. Karoly
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 09:45 How do extremes changes in the context of climate change? 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: S. Seneviratne
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:00 Registration & Administrative formalities 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 12:00 Lunch 2h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Statistical Theory 2h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: E. Gilleland
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 16:00 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 16:30 Presentation of potential projects and first group discussions 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Eklund Informatics Lab (Lower Level 1) )
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 19:00 Welcome reception 2h0' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
  • Tuesday, 22 July 2014
    • 09:00 - 22:30
      • 09:00 Extreme Value Theory (multi-variate) 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: P. Naveau
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 09:45 Extreme Value Theory (non-startionarity) 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: P. Naveau
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:00 Introduction to R & NCAR extreme package 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: E. Gilleland
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Introductory exercises with NCAR extreme package 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        Speaker: E. Gilleland
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 16:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
      • 19:30 Dinner 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 20:30 Statistical Theory – Advanced talk 2h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: P. Naveau
        Material: Video
  • Wednesday, 23 July 2014
    • 09:00 - 17:30
      • 09:00 Detection and Attribution (General introduction) 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Zwiers
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 09:45 Detection and Attribution (Optimized & Non-optimized methods) 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Zwiers
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:00 Practical exercise with R: Optimal fingerprinting 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        Speaker: F. Zwiers/Q. Wan
        Material: Instructions Materials lecture notes
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 16:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
  • Thursday, 24 July 2014
    • 09:00 - 21:00
      • 09:00 Physical mechanisms (Large-scale circulation) 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: D. Karoly
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 10:00 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 10:30 Climate extremes: Data issues 2h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: L. Alexander
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        Material: Movies
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 16:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        Material: lecture notes
      • 19:00 Dinner Outing 2h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        The bus will depart from outside the Adriatico Guesthouse at 7 p.m. Dinner will be held at the restaurant "Lupinc" on the Karst.
  • Friday, 25 July 2014
    • 09:00 - 17:30
      • 09:00 Prediction - seasonal prediction systems 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: A. Kumar
        Material: Video
      • 10:30 Coffee break 20' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 10:50 Prediction - Predictability and extremes 55' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Doblas-Reyes
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 11:45 Prediction - seasonal prediction systems 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: A. Kumar
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 16:00 Project progress reports (15 min each) 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Material: Video
  • Monday, 28 July 2014
    • 09:00 - 17:30
      • 09:00 Detection and attribution (Extreme values) 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Zwiers
        Material: Video
      • 09:45 Detection and attribution (Extreme values) 1h15' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Zwiers
      • 11:00 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:30 Practical exercise with R: D&A Extreme values 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        Speaker: F. Zwiers/Q. Wan
        Material: Exercises lecture notes
      • 13:00 Lunch 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 16:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
  • Tuesday, 29 July 2014
    • 09:00 - 17:30
      • 09:00 Physical mechanisms (Land-climate feedbacks) 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: S. Seneviratne
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 09:45 Physical mechanisms (Local vs large-scale drivers) 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: S. Seneviratne
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:00 Practical exercise -land-climate inter-actions and soil moisture memory 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: R. Orth / S. Seneviratne
        Material: lecture notes
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 16:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
  • Wednesday, 30 July 2014
    • 09:00 - 19:30
      • 09:00 Event attribution: Theory 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: P. Stott
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 09:45 Event attribution: Theory 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: P. Stott
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:00 Practical exercise with climate prediction.net data 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        Speaker: F. Otto
        Material: Exercises
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 16:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
      • 18:00 Response of hydroclimatic regimes to global warming 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Giorgi
  • Thursday, 31 July 2014
    • 09:00 - 21:00
      • 09:00 Event attribution: Theory 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Otto
        Material: Video lecture notes
      • 09:45 Event attribution: Theory 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Otto
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:00 Practical exercise with climate prediction.net data 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        Speaker: F. Otto
        Material: Exercises
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 16:00 Group projects 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
      • 19:00 End of school Dinner 2h0' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
  • Friday, 1 August 2014
    • 09:00 - 15:00
      • 09:00 Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Development 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: K. Koshi
        Material: Video lecture notes slides
      • 09:45 Final Project wrap up and ongoing collaboration planning 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Material: Video
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:00 Project presentations (30-minutes each) 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Material: Video
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 14:00 Project presentations (30-minutes each) 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Material: Video