Description
DEADLINE TO APPLY:   22 JUNE 2015

ONLINE APPLICATION: https://onlineapps.ictp.it//ENTER/APPLICANT/2714.mhtml


     The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
(ICTP), Trieste, Italy is organizing an ADVANCED SCHOOL AND WORKSHOP ON SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (S2S) PREDICTION AND APPLICATION TO DROUGHT PREDICTION, to be held at ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 23 November to 4 December 2015.   

       From the societal perspective, many management decisions in agriculture and food security, water, disaster risk reduction and health fall into the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time range (more than two weeks and less than a season). However, this time scale has long been considered a "predictability desert", and forecasting for this range has received much less attention. Recently, research has indicated important potential sources of predictability for this range, and with this School and Workshop it is intended to help understand better these sources, and also to improve the existing "tools" to translate and obtain more accurate forecasts. For more details on this topic please see http://s2sprediction.net
 
       Topics will cover the scientific and modeling basis for S2S prediction in the opening days of the activity, followed by a focus on the practical application of drought forecasting on weekly to seasonal timescales, including practical sessions involving hands-on analysis:
  • Mechanisms of subseasonal predictability: MJO, stratosphere, atmosphere interactions with land surface and ocean, teleconnections;
  • Modeling in the subseasonal range:  Initialization, ensemble generation, design of forecast systems;
  • Windows of opportunity for forecast skill through interactions between ENSO, MJO and other sources of predictability;
  • Subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation forecasts for applications in tropical developing countries: Focus on drought and prediction of monsoon breaks;
  • Forecast correction and verification: MOS correction, spread-skill relationships, forecast metrics;
  • Introduction to the new S2S multi-model database of subseasonal forecasts housed at ECMWF;
  • Description of other model archives including from the TIGGE, EUROSIP, CHFP databases;
  • Methodologies for tailoring of forecasts for applications in tropical developing countries;
  • Practical training sessions on analysis and skill assessment of ensemble prediction systems in the S2S and other databases for the countries of the participants, including drought and high-impact weather events, using open source tools: R, Climate Predictability Tool-CPT. 
       This is an advanced School, aimed at junior scientists already in possession of a Ph.D. Participants are expected to be working in a research or operational environment on the problem of S2S prediction, and are encouraged to make a poster presentation during the second week.  If interested, kindly submit a short one-page abstract of the contribution (size A4), attached to the online application.
                                     
PARTICIPATION
Scientists and students from all countries that are members of the United Nations, UNESCO or IAEA may attend the School.  As it will be conducted in English, participants must have an adequate working knowledge of this language.  Although the main purpose of the Centre is to help researchers from developing countries, through a programme of training activities within a framework of international cooperation, a limited number of students and post-doctoral scientists from developed countries are also welcome to attend.
As a rule, travel and subsistence expenses of the participants are borne by their home institutions.  Every effort should be made by candidates to secure support for their fare (or at least half-fare). However, limited funds are available for some participants, who are nationals of, and working in, a developing country, and who are not more than 45 years old.  Such support is available only for those who attend the entire activity.  There is no registration fee.


HOW TO APPLY FOR PARTICIPATION
 
The online application form can be accessed at the activity website:
https://onlineapps.ictp.it//ENTER/APPLICANT/2714.mhtml
Go to day
  • Monday, 23 November 2015
    • 08:30 - 09:30 Registration
    • 09:30 - 14:00 Morning Session: SAS context, History WMO/WCRP/WWRP
      • 09:30 Opening Ceremony 30'
      • 10:00 The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction Project 1h0'
        Speaker: Frederic Vitart (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Reading, UK)
        Material: Video notes
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:30 An introduction to numerical weather prediction and climate model uncertainly 1h0'
        Speaker: Adrian Tompkins (ESP, ICTP, Italy)
        Material: Video notes
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 20:00 Afternoon Session: Basics of weather: models & NWP, obs data, reanalysis
      • 14:00 An introduction to analysis and reanalysis systems 1h30'
        Speaker: Adrian Tompkins
        Material: Video notes
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
      • 16:00 Demonstration of the web databases for S2S and ERA-Interim 1h0'
        Speakers: Adrian Tompkins, Frederic Vitart
        Material: Video notes
      • 18:00 Official Reception 2h0'
  • Tuesday, 24 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:00 Morning Session
      Lab - Introduction to S2S DB 
      • 09:00 Group 1: Introduction to S2S Database 1h45'
        Speaker: Frederic Vitart
        Material: notes
      • 10:45 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:15 Group 2: Introduction to S2S Database 1h15'
        Speaker: Frederic Vitart
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Afternoon Session
      Seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting basics
      • 14:00 Seasonal forecasting basics, Forecasting system design 1h30'
        Speakers: Swadhin Behera (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science Technology (JAMSTEC), Takeshi Doi (JAMSTEC)
        Material: Video notes
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
      • 16:00 Sub-Seasonal forecasting,Forecasting system design 1h0'
        Speaker: Frederic Vitart
        Material: Video notes
  • Wednesday, 25 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:00 Morning Session
      Sources of S2S predictability, phenomena
      • 09:00 Equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves 1h0'
        Speaker: Fred Kucharski (ESP, ICTP, Italy)
        Material: Video notes
      • 10:00 Subseasonal modes, MJO 1h0'
        Speaker: Hai Lin (Recherche en Prevision Numerique, RPN, Quebec, Canada)
        Material: notes
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:30 Monsoon scale interactions 1h0'
        Speaker: Swadhin Behera
        Material: Video notes
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Afternoon Session
      Lab: Accessing S2S DB and IRI Data Library
      • 14:00 Introduction to IRI Data Library 1h30'
        Speaker: Paula Gonzalez (Columbia University, New York, USA)
        Material: notes
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
      • 16:00 Laboratory session 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
  • Thursday, 26 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:00 Morning Session
      S2S modeling ensembles
      • 09:00 S2S model initalialzation and ensemble generation 1h0'
        Speaker: Frederic Vitart
        Material: Video notes
      • 10:00 Role of teleconnections 1h0'
        Speaker: Hai Lin
        Material: notes
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:30 High resolution modeling 1h0'
        Speaker: Swadhin Behera
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Afternoon Session
      Laboratory: MJO exercise
      • 14:00 Laboratory: MJO exercise 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
        Material: notes
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
      • 16:00 Laboratory: MJO exercise 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
  • Friday, 27 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:00 Morning Session
      More sources of S2S predictability, phenomena
      • 09:00 Positive atmosphere and ocean feedbacks during ENSO, Gill model 1h0'
        Speaker: Fred Kucharski
        Material: notes
      • 10:00 Other forecast databases: CHEP, TIGGE, Eurosip, NMME 1h0'
        Speakers: Frederic Vitart, Adrian Tompkins
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:30 Laboratory Exercise 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
        Material: notes
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Afternoon Session
      Laboratory - basic analyses with the S2S DB
      • 14:00 Laboratory exercise 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
      • 16:00 Laboratory exercise 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
  • Monday, 30 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:00 Morning Session
      Applications, drought forecasting, statistical techniques
      • 09:00 S2S Applications, GFCS 1h0'
        Speaker: Andrew Robertson (Columbia University, The Earth Institute, USA)
        Material: Video notes
      • 10:00 S2S Applications: Drought forecasting 1h0'
        Speaker: Fredrik Wetterhall (Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Inst. Norrkoping, Sweden)
        Material: Video
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:30 Weather within climate: weather types 1h0'
        Speaker: Vincent Moron (Aix Marseille Universite AMU, France)
        Material: Video notes
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Afternoon Session
      Forecast verification, Laboratory work (case studies)
      • 14:00 Forecast verification 1h30'
        Speaker: Andrew Robertson
        Material: Video notes
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
      • 16:00 Laboratory exercise 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
  • Tuesday, 1 December 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:00 Morning Session
      Stratosphere, weather types, flood forecasting
      • 09:00 Stratospheric variability & prediction on sub-seasonal timescales 1h0'
        Speaker: Steven Woolnough (University of Reading, UK)
        Material: Video notes
      • 10:00 Toward the prediction of local-scale rainfall 1h0'
        Speaker: Vincent Moron
        Material: Video notes
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:30 Flood forecasting 1h0'
        Speaker: Fredrik Wetterhall
        Material: Video
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Afternoon Session
      Flood forecasting game. Laboratory work (case studies)
      • 14:00 Flood forecasting game 1h30'
        Speaker: Fredrik Wetterhall
        Material: Video notes
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
      • 16:00 Laboratory exercise 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
  • Wednesday, 2 December 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:00 Morning Session
      MJO modeling, tailored forecasts
      • 09:00 Modelling the MJO 1h0'
        Speaker: Steven Woolnough
        Material: Video notes
      • 10:00 Tailored forecasts 1h0'
        Speaker: Andrew Robertson
        Material: Video notes
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:30 ASEANCOF 1h0'
        Speaker: Raizan Bin Rahmat (Meteorological Service Singapore NEC, Singapore)
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Afternoon Session
      Laboratory work (case studies)
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory
      • 14:00 Laboratory exercise 1h30'
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
      • 16:00 Laboratory exercise 1h0'
  • Thursday, 3 December 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:00 Morning Session
      Participants Presentations
      • 09:00 S2S applications: Monthly to seasonal forecasting of malaria in Africa 1h0'
        Speaker: Adrian Tompkins
        Material: Video notes
      • 10:00 Overview of the WWRP 1h0'
        Speaker: Paolo Ruti (WWRD, Geneva, Switzerland)
        Material: Video
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:30 Participants Presentations 1h0'
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Afternoon Session
      Laboratory work ( case studies)
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory
      • 14:00 Laboratory exercise 1h30'
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
      • 16:00 Laboratory exercise 1h0'
    • 18:30 - 19:30 Afternoon Session: Get Together reception
      Laboratory work ( case studies)
      Location: Adriatico Cafeteria
  • Friday, 4 December 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:00 Morning Session
      General Q & A, Final presentations
      • 09:00 General Q / A session 2h0'
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
      • 11:30 Participants Presentations 1h0'
      • 12:30 Lunch Break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 16:00 Afternoon Session
      Final Presentations
      • 14:00 Participants Presentations 1h30'
      • 15:30 Closing Ceremony 30'