Description
Please access this link for Livestreaming: http://ictp.it/livestream


CLIVAR WEBPAGE AT: http://www.clivar.org/dcvp2015

The role of decadal variability in climate has been a subject for investigations since the advent of modern climate research and a title for many past meetings and workshops. That said, several recent developments make the holding of another workshop on the subject timely:

    Recent years saw the proliferation of new instrumental observations, particularly in the ocean and from space. These lead to advancements in coupled model-based climate prediction, including initialized decadal prediction. The international effort under CMIP 5 in this area provided material for an initial but incomplete assessment of the benefit and use of such predictions.
    Reconstructions of past, pre-instrumental climate variability from high-resolution single and multiple proxy datasets advanced and provided new information on decadal variability during the pre-industrial era.
    The proxy-based reconstructions also served as validation for a concerted CMIP 5 effort on coupled model simulate of last millennium climate variability. In particular these simulations were conceived to assess the response of surface temperature and precipitation to solar variability, volcanic forcing, and changes in land use and to contrast this response with the response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission and industrial aerosols. The analysis of these experiments has provided useful understanding of the response to external natural forcing but also revealed perplexing model inconsistencies that require further analysis and study.

Despite all the advances in observational analysis and modeling, the research community was caught by surprise by the slowdown in the rate of global surface temperature change since the late 1990’s. Climate researchers were quick to propose and test various hypotheses for this “warming hiatus” but the verdict is still out as to its cause and to the failure of initialized coupled model predictions to detect it. Faced with these developments, the WCRP and its core projects, particularly CLIVAR identified the need to advance the study of decadal climate variability and predictability (DCVP) and to continue experimental climate prediction under WGCM and WGSIP. Given these considerations, a workshop on DCVP to discuss the progress, identify the remaining challenges and lay out the way to address them is timely
Go to day
  • Sunday, 15 November 2015
    • 17:00 - 19:00 Registration
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - (Lower Level 1)
      • 17:00 Registration 2h0'
  • Monday, 16 November 2015
    • 08:30 - 09:00 Registration
      Location: Leonardo Building - Lobby
      • 08:30 Registration 30'
        After you have Registered: Administrative Formalities (daily living allowances/travel reimbursements, bank transactions, etc.) at the E. Fermi Building - just above the Leonardo Da Vinci Bldg.
        - Meal coupons: balance will be issued by the Guesthouse Receptions one day after the on-line registration is completed according to the following timetables:
        GALILEO Guesthouse: Tuesday to Friday 10.00-12.00 & 13.00-15.00
        ADRIATICO Guesthouse: Tuesday To Friday 13.00-15.00 
    • 09:00 - 09:30 Opening Session- Chair: In-sik Kang
      Location: Leonardo Building - Budinich Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Welcome 10'
        Speaker: In-Sik Kang (Seoul National University, Rep. of Korea)
        Material: Kucharski Intro Training Sessions Video
      • 09:10 ICTP/ESP Introduction 10'
        Speaker: Filippo Giorgi (Head -ICTP/ESP Section)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:20 Workshop Objectives and the CLIVAR DCVP Research Focus - 10'
        Speaker: Yochanan Kushnir (Columbia Univ., USA)
        Material: Slides Video
    • 09:40 - 20:00 Session 1: -General Introduction to Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) - Chair: Yochanan Kushnir
      • 09:40 Decadal climate variability and predictability: Overview and challenges 20'
        Speaker: Mojib Latif (GEOMAR, Germany)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:00 Decadal climate variability, attribution and prediction 20'
        Speaker: Rowan Sutton (U. Reading, UK)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:20 Climate shifts versus decadal-to-centennial variability 20'
        Speaker: Edwin Schneider (COLA/George Mason University, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:45 GROUP PHOTO 15' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
      • 11:30 Decadal climate variability during the Last Millennium from high-resolution proxies - 20'
        Speaker: Ed Cook (Columbia Univ., USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 11:50 Consistency Between planetary energy balance and ocean heat storage 20'
        Speaker: Karina von Schuckman (MERCATOR, France)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 12:10 REMOTE TALK: Ocean heat content and Earth's energy imbalance: insights from climate models 20'
        Speaker: Matthew Palmer (Met Office, UK)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 12:30 BUFFET LUNCH (at the back of the cafeteria) 2h0' ( Leonardo Building - Cafeteria )
      • 14:30 Forced aspects of decadal climate variability 20'
        Speaker: Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 14:50 Volcanically forced decadal climate variability: A historical perspective based on ensemble climate simulations 20'
        Speaker: Davide Zanchettin (U. Venice, Italy)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 15:10 Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections 20'
        Speaker: Ed Hawkins (U. Reading, UK)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
      • 16:00 REMOTE TALK: An overview of decadal climate variability in the historical record 20'
        Speaker: Clara Deser (NCAR, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 16:30 Discussion Session 1h0'
      • 17:30 POSTER SESSION 1h30' ( Poster Gallery, Lobby (area around the back of the LH), )
         51 magnetic boards, wall-mounted, mts 1,25 (height) x 1,22 (width) + - 5-10 stand-up double-sided boards (2mx1.20 each side) outside the the LH.
      • 18:30 WELCOME RECEPTION 1h30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
  • Tuesday, 17 November 2015
    • 08:40 - 10:50 Session 2: The Cryosphere and DCV - Chair: Paul Kushner
      Location: Leonardo Building - Budinich Lecture Hall
      • 08:40 Between trend and chaos: the evolution of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice 20'
        Speaker: Dirk Notz (MPI, Germany)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:00 The Arctic sea ice forecast horizon: how do we get there? 20'
        Speaker: Jonathan Day (U. Reading, UK)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:20 Impact of Low Frequency Variability of the Atlantic Ocean on Arctic Sea Ice Extent 20'
        Speaker: Rong Zhang (NOAA/GFDL, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:40 The challenge of modelling liquid-bearing clouds in the Arctic and implications for DCV 20'
        Speaker: Amy Solomon (NOAA/ESRL, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:00 Understanding the response of polar ice sheets to oceanic (and atmospheric) forcing 20'
        Speaker: Patrick Heimbach (U. Texas at Austin, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:20 Coffee Break 30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
    • 11:00 - 18:00 Session 3: Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability - Chair: Amy Solomon
      • 11:00 The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its connection to Atlantic Multi- decadal Variability in ocean and coupled climate models 20'
        Speaker: Gokhan Danabasoglu (NCAR, USA)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:20 The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on climate through its influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 20'
        Speaker: Thomas Delworth (NOAA/GFDL, USA)
      • 11:40 The impact of volcanic activity on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability 20'
        Speaker: Juliette Mignot (IPSL, France)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 12:30 BUFFET LUNCH (at the back of the cafeteria) 1h30' ( Leonardo Building - Cafeteria )
      • 13:30 The generation and application of novel records of North Atlantic variability over the last millennium 20'
        Speaker: David Reynolds ((U. Cardiff, UK))
      • 13:50 Multi-proxy reconstruction of Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability since 1360 20'
        Speaker: Halimeda (Hali) Kilbourne (Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 14:10 Mid-Latitude Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions 20'
        Speaker: Noel Keenlyside (U. Bergen, Norway)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 14:30 A recent reversal of trends in the N. Atlantic 20'
        Speaker: Jon Robson (U. Reading, UK)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 14:45 Extra-tropical origins of Equatorial Atlantic decadal variability 20'
        Speaker: Hyacinth Nnamchi (U. Nigeria, Nigeria)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 15:00 Coffee Break 30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
      • 15:30 Interference between Forced and Unforced Climate Variability: Implications for the North Atlantic and the Arctic 20'
        Speaker: Neil Tandon (U. Toronto, Canada)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 15:45 A coupled decadal-scale air-sea interaction theory: the NAO-AMO-AMOC coupled mode and its impacts 20'
        Speaker: Jianping Li (GCESS/BNU, China)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 16:00 Skillful North Atlantic predictability beyond decadal time scale 15'
        Speaker: Daniela Matei (MPI, Germany)
      • 16:15 Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability in an ensemble of multi-century climate simulations 15'
        Speaker: Irene Mavilia (CMCC, Italy)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 16:30 REMOTE TALK: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation - 20'
        Speaker: Amy Clement (RSMAS, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 16:50 Discussion Session 1h10'
  • Wednesday, 18 November 2015
    • 08:30 - 14:30 Session 4: Pacific Decadal Climate Variability - Chair: Mat Collins
      Location: Leonardo Building - Budinich Lecture Hall
      • 08:30 Coral Records of IPO and ENSO Variability in the South Pacific: New Results from the Expanding Coral Network 20'
        Speaker: Brad Linsley (U. Columbia, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 08:50 Observed strengthening of the Walker Circulation and limitations of CMIP5 models 20'
        Speaker: Scott Power (BoM, Australia)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:10 The Pacific Decadal Oscillation revisited 20'
        Speaker: Matt Newman (NOAA/ESRL, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:30 Estimating the continental response to global warming using pattern-scaled sea surface temperatures and sea ice 20'
        Speaker: Paul Kushner (U. Toronto, Canada)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:50 Pacific inter-decadal variability driven by tropical-extratropical interactions 15'
        Speaker: Riccardo Farneti (ICTP, Italy)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:05 Effects of volcanism on tropical modes of variability 15'
        Speaker: Nicola Maher (UNSW, Australia)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
      • 11:00 Tropical oceans drive hemispheric hydroclimate patterns during North American mega- drought 15'
        Speaker: Sloan Coats (U. Colorado, USA)
      • 11:20 Influence of 21st Century climate change on internal atmospheric variability and precipitation predictability over the Southwestern US 15'
        Speaker: Nikolaus Buenning (USC, USA)
        Material: Video
      • 11:30 Studying interdecadal Pacific variability using a perfect model framework 15'
        Speaker: Simon Borlace (IPSL, France)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 11:45 Discussion Session 1h15'
      • 12:30 BUFFET LUNCH (at the back of the cafeteria) 2h0' ( Leonardo Building - Cafeteria )
    • 14:30 - 18:30 Session 5: The Recent Hiatus and Atlantic/Pacific Decadal Variability Connection - Chair: Scott Power
      • 14:30 Hiatus and acceleration of surface global warming due to tropical Pacific decadal variability 20'
        Speaker: Yu Kosaka (U. Tokyo, Japan)
      • 14:50 Tropical Pacific decadal variability and the likelihood of a continued global warming hiatus 20'
        Speaker: Mat Collins (U. Exeter, UK)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 15:10 Modulation of air-sea fluxes by extra-tropical variability and its contribution to the warming hiatus 20'
        Speaker: Franco Molteni (ECMWF, UK)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 15:30 Impact of initial conditions and atmospheric model resolution in predicting 'climate hiatuses' 20'
        Speaker: Susanna Corti (CNR, Italy)
        Material: Video
      • 16:00 Coffee Break 30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
      • 16:30 ICTP COLLOQUIUM: Problems, Methodology and Philosophy in Climate Dynamics 1h0' ( Leonardo Building - Budinich Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: Geoff Vallis (U. Exeter, UK)
      • 17:30 Reception and Poster Session 1h0' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby and Poster Gallery, Lobby (area around the back of the LH), )
         51 magnetic boards, wall-mounted, mts 1,25 (height) x 1,22 (width) + - 5-10 stand-up double-sided boards (2mx1.20 each side) outside the the LH.
  • Thursday, 19 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 14:30 Session 6: Monsoon and Teleconnections - Chair: Fred Kucharski
      Location: Leonardo Building - Budinich Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Decadal variability of the Asian Monsoon 20'
        Speaker: Tianjun Zhou (LASG/IAP, China)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:20 Interplay between the Indian Ocean, ENSO and the Monsoon in a warming environment 20'
        Speaker: Roxy Mathew Koll (IITM, India)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:40 Decadal variability of the West African Monsoon and eastern equatorial Africa 20'
        Speaker: Alessandra Giannini (IRI, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:00 20th Century decadal variability of Sahel rainfal and moisture budget analysis 15'
        Speaker: Catherine Pomposi (U. Columbia, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:15 Decadal Prediction of Sahel rainfall using dynamics based indices - 15'
        Speaker: Elsa Mohino (UCM, Spain)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
      • 11:00 Decadal variability of ENSO teleconnections in the South Asian region 20'
        Speaker: In-Sik Kang (Seoul National U., Republic of Korea)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 11:20 Simulated sensitivity of the tropical climate to extra tropical thermal forcing 15'
        Speaker: Stefanie Talento Costa (U. Uruguay, Uruguay)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 11:35 ENSO teleconnections with the North Atlantic 15'
        Speaker: Belen Rodriguez Fonseca (U. Complutense Madrid, Spain)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 11:50 Sources of multi-decadal predictability in the Mediterranean region: the role of forced versus internal variability 15'
        Speaker: Alessio Bellucci*, Annarita Mariotti** (CMCC, Italy*, NOAA, USA**)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 12:05 Discussion Session 55'
      • 13:00 BUFFET LUNCH (at the back of the cafeteria) 1h30' ( Leonardo Building - Cafeteria )
    • 14:30 - 18:30 Session 7: Predictability and Prediction - Chair: Francisco Doblas-Reyes
      • 14:30 Beyond CMIP5 Decadal Predictions and the role of aerosols in the warming slowdown 20'
        Speaker: Doug Smith (UK Met Office, UK)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 14:50 Decadal predictability associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 20'
        Speaker: Rym Msadek (CERFACS, France)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 15:10 The role of ocean data assimilation in initialized decadal climate prediction 20'
        Speaker: Alicia Karspeck (NCAR, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 15:30 Drift dynamics in a coupled model initialized for decadal forecasts 15'
        Speaker: Emilia Sanchez (CERFACS, France)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 15:45 Coffee Break 30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
      • 16:15 A comparison of two ensemble generation methods based on oceanic singular vectors and atmospheric lagged initialization for decadal predictions 15'
        Speaker: Iuliia Polkova (U. Hamburg, Germany)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 16:30 Initialized Decadal Predictions by LASG/IAP Climate System Model FGOALS-s2: Evaluations of Strengths and Weaknesses 15'
        Speaker: Bo Wu (IAP, China)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 16:45 Is the PDO predictable? 15'
        Speaker: Rosemary Eade (Met Office, UK)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 17:00 Decadal predictions (2010-2040) using pattern scaled Sea Surface Temperature and Sea-Ice concentration 15'
        Speaker: Adeline Bichet (LGGE, France)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 17:15 Towards impact-relevant climate projections: the challenge of internal variability 15'
        Speaker: Claudio Saffioti (ETHZ, Switzerland)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 17:30 Discussion Session 1h0'
  • Friday, 20 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 12:30 Session 8: Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenge and Opportunity Chairs: Yochanan Kushnir, Christophe Cassou
      Location: Leonardo Building - Budinich Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Decadal predictability and prediction in a complex international context 30'
        Speaker: Francisco Doblas-Reyes (IC3, Spain)
        Material: Video
      • 09:30 CMIP6 Pace Maker Experiments 30'
        Speaker: Christophe Cassou (CERFACS, France)
        Material: Video
      • 10:00 Coffee Break 30' ( Leonardo Building - Lobby )
      • 10:30 Discussion Session 1h30'
      • 12:00 Workshop Close 30'
    • 14:00 - 18:00 1st Meeting of the Decadal Climate Variability & Predictability (DCVP): Working Group
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Lundqvist Lecture Hall (Lower Level 1)
      • 14:00 Introduction and start 4h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Lundqvist Lecture Hall )
        Speaker:
    • 14:00 - 18:30 HANDS-ON TRAINING SESSIONS: F. Kucharski
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - INFOLab (Lower Level 1)
      • 14:00 Computer exercises 4h30' ( Adriatico Guest House - INFOLab )
        Speaker:
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House - area outside of the INFOLab )
  • Saturday, 21 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 17:00 1st Meeting of the Decadal Climate Variability & Predictability (DCVP): Working Group
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Lundqvist Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Working Group 8h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Lundqvist Lecture Hall )
    • 09:00 - 18:00 HANDS-ON TRAINING SESSIONS: F. Kucharski
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - INFOLab (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:00 Computer exercises 9h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - INFOLab (Lower Level 1) )
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House - area outside of the INFOLab )
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House - area outside of the INFOLab )
  • Monday, 23 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 18:00 HANDS-ON TRAINING SESSIONS: F. Kucharski
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - INFOLab (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:00 Computer exercises 9h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - INFOLab (Lower Level 1) )
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House - area outside of the INFOLab )
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House - area outside of the INFOLab )
  • Tuesday, 24 November 2015
    • 09:00 - 12:00 HANDS-ON TRAINING SESSIONS: F. Kucharski
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - INFOLab (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:00 Computer exercises 3h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - INFOLab (Lower Level 1) )