Scientific Calendar Event



Description
Topics

From a societal perspective, many management decisions in agriculture and food security, water, disaster risk reduction and health fall into the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range, from two weeks and up to a season, while interest has also grown in the potential to provide multiannual predictions in an initialized decadal prediction framework.
 
Research has indicated important potential sources of predictability over sub-seasonal ranges through better representation of atmospheric phenomena such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation and improved coupling with, and initialization of, the land–ocean–cryosphere and stratosphere, leading to the promise that better understanding of these potential sources of predictability together with improvements in model development, observations, data assimilation and computing resources will translate into more accurate forecasts. Over longer timescales, research has started to document the current limits of initialized climate prediction. Recent advances in open data resources to aid research in this area include the new subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) databases that contain both forecasts and hindcasts from many global operational centres with lead times up to 2 months, as well as the US Multi-model ensemble (NMME) which presently provides operational real-time seasonal forecasts, and also has a higher resolution S2S extension planned.

This one week school will include lectures by leading experts from the world Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) on predictability over the sub-seasonal to decadal timescales, with concrete examples from some of the world’s leading operational centers. Lab-based classes will introduce the participants to the new S2S Project subseasonal and CHFP seasonal forecast databases.
 
Participants are expected to be working in a research or operational environment on the problem of sub-seasonal, seasonal or decadal prediction and/or their societal applications in health, agriculture, energy or water resource management, for example. As instruction will be in English, a working knowledge of the language is required. Familiarity with linux would be a benefit but is not mandatory as the data acquisition can also be performed in a Windows environment. Both linux and Windows users are expected, however, to be able to already perform rudimentary data analysis with a programming language (examples include R, python or NCL).
 
NOTE: You are strongly encouraged to bring a laptop to the school (preferably with linux installed) as this will allow us to install the relevant software to access the databases and facilitate your continued use of the tools after the event. Please indicate this on the application form if you are able to do so to allow us to plan required computing resources.

Invited Speakers include:

Francisco Doblas-Reyes (BSC, Barcelona)
Alessandra Giannini (IRI, Columbia U.)
Maialen Iturbide (IFCA, CSIS, Santander)
Bill Merryfield (Environment Canada)
Andrew W. Robertson (IRI, Columbia U.)
Ramiro Saurral (CIMA, Buenos Aires)
Wassila Thiaw (NOAA)
 

 
Go to day
  • Monday, 21 November 2016
    • 09:30 - 18:15 Monday, 21 November
      • 09:30 Introduction to School 15'
        Speaker: Anna Pirani (ICTP) and Ousmane Ndiaye (ANACIM)
      • 09:45 Coffee break 45'
      • 10:30 Delivering actual climate services to farmers community in Kaffrine 1h0'
        Speaker: Ousmane Ndiaye (ANACIM)
      • 11:30 Seasonal forecasting with the NMME, with a focus on Africa 1h0'
        Speaker: William Merryfield (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis)
        Material: Slides
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30'
      • 14:00 Lab session 1h30'
        Speaker: William Merryfield (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis)
        Material: Slides
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 16:00 Lab session on the CHFP database as a comprehensive tool for seasonal forecasting 2h15'
        Speaker: Ramiro Saurral (Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET)
        Material: Slides
  • Tuesday, 22 November 2016
    • 08:45 - 18:15 Tuesday, 22 November
      • 08:45 Subseasonal forecasting and the S2S project 1h0'
        Speaker: Andrew Robertson (Columbia University)
        Material: Slides
      • 09:45 Coffee break 45'
      • 10:30 From seasonal to decadal seamless prediction 1h0'
        Speaker: Francisco Doblas-Reyes (Barcelona Supercomputing Center)
      • 11:30 Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting for Africa 1h0'
        Speaker: Wassila Thiaw (NOAA)
        Material: Slides
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30'
      • 14:00 Forecasting the WAM onset in S2S systems 30'
        Speaker: Adrian Tompkins (ICTP)
      • 14:30 Introduction to S2S lab 1h0'
        Speaker: Andrew Robertson, Wassila Thiaw and Adrian Tompkins
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 16:00 s2S lab (cont.) 2h15'
  • Wednesday, 23 November 2016
    • 08:45 - 18:15 Wednesday, 23 November
      • 08:45 EUROSIP seasonal forecasting systems and the Copernicus programme 1h0'
        Speaker: Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)
      • 09:45 Coffee break 45'
      • 10:30 Seasonal forecast downscaling in R: The downscaleR package 2h0'
        Speaker: Maialen Iturbide (Institute of Physics of Cantabria, Spanish National Research Council-CSIC)
        Material: Slides
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30'
      • 14:00 JOINT SESSION: Participants and WGSIP members mini-projects 1h30'
        Material: Slides
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 16:00 General Lab 2h15'
  • Thursday, 24 November 2016
    • 08:45 - 18:15 Thursday, 24 November
      • 08:45 The influence of the oceans on West African climate 1h0'
        Speaker: Alessandra Giannini (Columbia University)
        Material: Slides
      • 09:45 Coffee break 45'
      • 10:30 Introduction to the IRI Data Library for climate analysis 1h0'
        Speaker: Alessandra Giannini (Columbia University)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:30 General Lab 1h0'
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30'
      • 14:00 JOINT SESSION: Participants and WGSIP members mini-projects 1h30'
        Material: Slides
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 16:00 General Lab 2h15'
  • Friday, 25 November 2016
    • 08:45 - 18:15 Friday, 25 November
      • 08:45 Lab session 1h0'
      • 09:45 Coffee break 45'
      • 10:30 Lab session 2h0'
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30'
      • 14:00 JOINT SESSION - summary of findings 1h30'
      • 15:30 Trip - TBD 2h45'