4th Summer School on Theory, Mechanisms and Hierarchical Modeling of Climate Dynamics: Atlantic Variability and Tropical Basin Interactions at Interannual to Multi-Decadal Time Scales | (smr 3864) (31 July 2023

Administration

Description

An ICTP hybrid meeting

The activity will combine a graduate-level summer school on state-of-the-science knowledge in Atlantic multi-decadal variability and tropical basin interactions, followed by a workshop on current research topics in the field on August 9th-11th.

Tropical ocean basins influence each other on seasonal and longer timescales. Variations in the Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) can drive changes in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans via atmospheric teleconnections, even modulating global warming.

The first week of the summer school will be devoted to:

(i) current theories for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and stability, governing mechanisms of AMV and role in TBIs
(ii) mechanisms underlying tropical mean climate, ocean-atmosphere interactions at interannual to decadal timescales.

The second week will be centered on current research topics, such as the potential factors driving and modulating TBIs, the relative role of AMV and AMOC, as well as historical and future changes.

Hands-on training will be aimed at introducing participants to a hierarchy of climate models for simulating AMV and TBIs.

Topics:

The relative role of AMOC in setting AMV spatial patterns and timescale;
Factors controlling tropical basins interactions (TBIs) at different timescales and their modulation;
How climate models simulate the AMV/AMOC interaction and TBIs
How do AMV/AMOC and TBIs evolve in a warming climate

Call for Contributed Abstracts: All applicants whether attending the summer school and workshop or just the workshop are encouraged to submit an abstract for a poster presentation and/or a contributed talk. Abstract templates are available below for download. Please click on 'Apply here' to submit your workshop abstract.

Grants: A limited number of grants are available to support the attendance of selected participants, with priority given to participants from developing countries. There is no registration fee.

The programme fro the school can be found also at the following link:

https://www.clivar.org/amv-and-tbi-summer-school-programme

while the programme for the workshop here:

https://www.clivar.org/amv-and-tbi-workshop-programme

Material

Abstract templates Booklet with poster abstracts Final list of Participants Group photo How to choose your time zone Poster

4th Summer School on Theory, Mechanisms and Hierarchical Modeling of Climate Dynamics: Atlantic Variability and Tropical Basin Interactions at Interannual to Multi-Decadal Time Scales | (smr 3864)

Go to day

Monday, 31 July 2023

08:00 - 08:30

Material:

Material

08:00 Registration formalities (in person participants) 30' ( Adriatico Guest House - Registration desk (Lower Level 1) )

Upon arrival, Visitors not staying in the ICTP Guest Houses, are kindly requested to complete registration formalities at the Adriatico Guest House (Lower level). The Registration Desk will be open from 8.00 to 8.30.

08:30 - 12:30

08:30 Introduction to summer school and the participants 1h0'

Speaker: Noel KEENLYSIDE (University of Bergen, Norway), Natalie BURLS (George Mason University, USA)

09:30 Lecture: Introduction to large-scale ocean circulation-AMOC-role for global climate 1h0'

Speaker:	Aixue HU (NCAR, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

10:30 Coffee break 30'

11:00 Lecture: Theories for AMOC 1h0'

Speaker:	Aixue HU (NCAR, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

12:00 Discussion 30'

14:00 - 17:00

14:00 Introduction to the student projects 45'

Speaker: All
14:45 Student project selection 45'
15:30 Coffee break 30'

16:00 Lecture: Understanding the AMOC from modelling and observational perspectives 1h0'

remote

Speaker:	Rong ZHANG (Princeton University and U.S. Department of Commerce N.O.A.A., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

18:30 - 20:00

18:30 Welcome Reception 1h30'

All participants are cordially invited to the Welcome Reception.

Tuesday, 1 August 2023

08:30 - 12:35

08:30 Lecture: Introduction to tropical climate 1h0'

Speaker:	Natalie BURLS (George Mason University, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

09:30 Lecture: Extra-tropical versus tropical air-sea interactions 1h0'

Speaker:	Rhys PARFITT (Florida State University, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

10:30 Coffee break 30'

11:00 Lecture: Mechnaisms for climate variability 1h0'

Speaker:	Noel KEENLYSIDE (University of Bergen, Norway)
Material:	Slides Video

12:00 Discussion 30'
12:30 Group photo 5'
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in presence and online participants
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14:00 - 17:00

14:00 Introduction to pacemaker experiments 45'

Speaker:	Ingo RICHTER (JAMSTEC, Japan)
Material:	Slides Video

14:45 The SPEEDY-TOM3 model: coupling approach and results from multi-decadal experiments 45'

Speaker:	Franco MOLTENI (ECMWF, UK)
Material:	Video

15:30 Coffee break 30'
16:00 Performing pacemaker experiments with SPEEDY-TOM3 1h0'

Speaker: Franco MOLTENI (ECMWF, UK)

Wednesday, 2 August 2023

08:30 - 12:30

08:30 Weather and climate 1h0'

Speaker:	Rhys PARFITT (Florida State University, USA), Noel KEENLYSIDE (University of Bergen, Norway)
Material:	Video

09:30 Interannual variability in the tropical Pacific 1h0'

Speaker:	Ingo RICHTER (JAMSTEC, Japan)
Material:	Slides Video

10:30 Coffee break 30'

11:00 Introduction to Project Dataset (All) including NorESM pacemaker experiments 1h0'

Speaker:	Ping-Gin CHIU (Uninversity of Bergen, Norway)
Material:	Video

12:00 Discussion 30'

14:00 - 17:00
- 14:00 Project work 1h30'
- 15:30 Coffee break 30'
- 16:00 Project work 1h0'

Thursday, 3 August 2023

08:30 - 12:30

08:30 Interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic 1h0'

Speaker:	Hyacinth NNAMCHI (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany)
Material:	Slides Video

09:30 Tropical Basin Interactions and climate variability: A review 1h0'

Speaker:	Chunzai WANG (Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
Material:	Slides Video

10:30 Coffee break 30'
11:00 Project work 1h30'

14:00 - 18:00

14:00 Project work 30'

14:30 Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean 1h0'

remote

Speaker:	Weiqing HAN (University of Colorado, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

15:30 Coffee break 30'

16:00 Lecture: External forcing of the AMV 1h0'

remote

Speaker:	Amy CLEMENT (University of Miami, USA)
Material:	Video

17:00 Lecture: Understanding the AMOC-AMV linkage and associated climate impacts 1h0'

remote

Speaker:	Rong ZHANG (Princeton University and U.S. Department of Commerce N.O.A.A., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

Friday, 4 August 2023

08:30 - 12:30

08:30 Lecture: Climate change tropics, including impacts Part 1: Tropical Pacific under Climate Change 1h0'

Speaker:	Natalie BURLS (George Mason University, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

09:30 Lecture: Climate change tropics, including impacts Part 2: TBIs 1h0'

Speaker:	Hyacinth NNAMCHI (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany)
Material:	Slides Video

10:30 Coffee break 30'
11:00 Project work 1h0'
12:00 Discussion 30'

14:30 - 18:30
- 14:30 Project work 4h0'

Saturday, 5 August 2023
- 08:30 - 12:30
  - 08:30 Lab is open for project work 2h0'
  - 10:30 Coffee break 30'
  - 11:00 Lab is open for project work 1h30'

Monday, 7 August 2023

08:30 - 12:30

08:30 Lecture: Future changes in AMOC and its impacts 1h0'

Speaker:	Katinka BELLOMO (Politecnico di Torino, Italy)
Material:	Video

09:30 Lecture: Modulation of TBI 1h0'

remote

Speaker:	Maria Belen RODRIGUEZ-FONSECA (Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain)
Material:	Slides Video

10:30 Coffee break 30'

11:00 Lecture: Insights from paleo-climate archives – AMOC, TBI, AMV, PDV, impacts 1h0'

Speaker:	Yuko OKUMURA (University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

12:00 Discussion 30'

14:00 - 17:00
- 14:00 Project work 1h30'
- 15:30 Coffee break 30'
- 16:00 Project work 1h0'

Tuesday, 8 August 2023

08:30 - 12:30

08:30 Lecture: Climate prediction (Part 1) 1h0'

Speaker:	Noel KEENLYSIDE (University of Bergen, Norway)
Material:	Slides Video

09:30 Lecture: Climate prediction (Part 2) Recent developments in decadal prediction 1h0'

Speaker:	Steve YEAGER (NCAR, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

10:30 Coffee break 30'
11:00 Discussion 30'
11:30 Student presentations 1h0'

14:00 - 17:00
- 14:00 Student presentations 1h30'
- 15:30 Coffee break 30'
- 16:00 Close 1h0'

Wednesday, 9 August 2023

08:45 - 09:20 AMV and TBI Workshop Programme
- 08:45 Welcome 15'
  
  Speaker: Riccardo FARNETI (ICTP, Italy)
- 09:00 Goals of the workshop 20'

09:20 - 12:35 Session 1: The relative role of AMOC in setting AMV spatial patterns and timescale

09:20 The Fingerprint of Ocean Processes on Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability 20'

Speaker:	Robert JNGLIN WILLS (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
Material:	Slides Video

09:40 Intermittent Behaviour in the AMOC-AMV Relationship 20'

Speaker:	Alessio BELLUCCI (Italian National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR - ISAC), Italy)
Material:	Slides Video

10:00 Does AMOC affect the AMV? 15'

Speaker:	Aixue HU (NCAR, USA)
Material:	Video

10:15 Applying Dynamical Adjustment Techniques to Quantify Contributions of Variability to North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature 15'

Speaker:	Douglas NEDZA (George Mason University, USA)
Material:	Video

10:30 Coffee break 30'

11:00 Posters 1h30'

    An investigation on the relationship between North Atlantic climate variabilities and the dominant role of oceanic conditions, Abhinav Rajalakshmi Subrahmanian
    Two regimes of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation: cross-basin dependent or Atlantic-intrinsic, Mengrong Ding
    Low-frequency AMOC variability: mechanism and impacts, Weimin Jiang
    Mid-20th Century Atlantic Circulation informed by Modern Observations and Models, Guillaume Hug
    Tropical Indio-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations, Brady Ferster
    A possible control of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) by the Antarctic stratosphere, Tatsuro Karaki

12:30 Group photo 5'
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in presence and online participants
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14:00 - 14:35 Session 1 (ctd): The relative role of AMOC in setting AMV spatial patterns and timescale

14:00 Can Stratospheric Processes Control the AMOC/AMV Linkage? 20'
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remote
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Speaker: Alexey FEDOROV (Yale University, USA)

14:20 Drivers of change in North Atlantic atmosphere and ocean circulation: findings from the UK ACSIS Programme 10'

remote

Speaker:	Rowan T. SUTTON (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK)
Material:	Video

14:40 - 18:00 Session 2: Factors controlling TBI at different timescales and their modulation

14:40 Multidecadal Modulations of Tropical Basin Interactions 20'

remote

Speaker:	Belen RODRIGUEZ-FONSECA (Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain)
Material:	Video

15:00 Exploring the symmetries of pan-tropical connections between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific basins 15'

Speaker:	Rajashree NAHA (Monash University, USA)
Material:	Video

15:15 Rethinking the influence of solar cycles on ENSO 15'

Speaker:	Yuko OKUMURA (University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, USA)
Material:	Video

15:30 Super El Niño: A product of three-ocean interactions 15'

Speaker:	Chunzai WANG (Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
Material:	Video

15:45 Revisiting the inconsistent influence of ENSO on the tropical Atlantic 15'

Speaker:	Ingo RICHTER (JAMSTEC, Japan)
Material:	Video

16:00 Coffee break 30'

16:30 Breakout sessions 1h30'

    Triple-dip La Niña in 2020-23: North Pacific footprint drives the 2nd year La Niña, Tomoki Iwakiri
    Boosting effect of the strong western pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole on El Niño decay, Jia Wu
    Non-ENSO Precursors for Northwestern Pacific Summer Monsoon Variability with Implications for Predictability, Pengcheng Zhang
    Chlorophyll-a as an indicator of tropical basin interactions, Elena Calvo Miguélez
    Investigating the Atlantic-Indian summer monsoon multidecadal teleconnections in the PMIP3/CMIP5 Last Millennium simulations, Arijeet Dutta 
    Lagged Interactions between South Atlantic and Equatorial Pacific SSTs and the mediating role of the South American Monsoon, Fabio Bellacanzone
    Evaluating the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole impacts on West African precipitation in CMIP6 Model Simulations, Uzoma Nworgu
    Drivers and impact of the 2021 extreme warm event in the tropical Angolan upwelling system. Rodrigue Anicet Imbol Koungue
    Impact of equatorial waves on rainfall modulation in Cameroon, Idene-Flore Mantho
    Revisiting the tropical Atlantic western boundary circulation from a 25-year time series of satellite altimetry data, Djoirka Minto Dimoune
    Quasi-decadal to interdecadal ocean surface temperature variability in the Southern Benguela Upwelling System, Folly Serge Tomety
 Past, present, and future impacts of the Atlantic equatorial mode of variability on the boreal summer Guinea Coast rainfall characteristics, Koffi Worou
    Multi model evidence of future tropical Atlantic precipitation change modulated by AMOC decline, Giada Cerato
    Simulating AMOC collapses driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm. Matteo Cini
    Recent warming of Greenland in the early summer and its link to atmospheric blocking trends in the Northern Atlantic sector. Michele Filippucci
    Impacts of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation decline on Euro-Atlantic circulation patterns, Andrea Vito Vacca
    Transient and Equilibrium Responses of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Radiative Forcing, Paul Curtis
    South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in present and future climate from the Community Earth System Model, Version 2, Large Ensemble Project: impacts on the heat balance, Maurício Rocha
    Ocean-atmosphere processes in response to climate change in the tropical south Atlantic, Isabelle Vilela De Oliveira

19:30 - 21:30

19:30 Dinner 2h0'

All participants are cordially invited to the Dinner.

Thursday, 10 August 2023

09:00 - 09:35 Session 2 (ctd): Factors controlling TBI at different timescales and their modulation

09:00 The contribution of Atlantic variability to ENSO in recent decades 15'

Speaker:	Noel KEENLYSIDE (University of Bergen, Norway)
Material:	Video

09:15 Indian Ocean Dipole leads to Atlantic Niño 20'

Speaker:	Lei ZHANG (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
Material:	Video

09:35 - 12:30 Session 3: Model simulations of AMV/AMOC interaction and TBI

09:35 Reduced Southern Ocean Warming Enhances Global Skill and Signal-to-Noise in an Eddy- Resolving Decadal Prediction System 20'

Speaker:	Steve YEAGER (NCAR, USA)
Material:	Video

09:55 AMOC variability on centennial timescales – a journey through the model hierarchy, from box models to CMIP6 15'

Speaker:	Oliver Mehling (Politecnico di Torino, Italy)
Material:	Video

10:10 Two distinct phases of the Subpolar North Atlantic variability and change under global warming conditions 20'

Speaker:	Daniela MATEI (Max Planck Institut Fuer Meteorologie, Germany)
Material:	Video

10:30 Coffee break 30'

11:00 Posters 1h30'

    Changes in the relationship between the North Atlantic and Tropical Pacific due to climate change in the CMIP model, Jigwang Kim
    Determining dynamical drivers of intra-basin differences in spectral slope from the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble, Noah Rosenberg
    Improved Extratropical North Atlantic Atmosphere–Ocean Variability with Increasing Model Resolution, Casey Patrizio
    Impact of the location of tropical convection on climate variability, Lucía Montoya-Carramolino
    Tropical subsurface dynamic adjustment and pattern formation responses to idealized subtropical low cloud forcing, Matthew Luongo
    North Atlantic Oscillation impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shaped by the mean state, Hyojeong Kim
    Strongly forced North Atlantic decadal variability within anomaly initialized CESM2 decadal reforecast experiments, Natalie Burls

14:00 - 15:10 Session 3 (ctd): Model simulations of AMV/AMOC interaction and TBI

14:00 Ocean and climate responses to North Atlantic Oscillation surface heat flux forcing in a hierarchy of models 15'

remote

Speaker:	Who KIM (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

14:15 Understanding Multidecadal AMOC Variability 15'

remote

Speaker:	Rong ZHANG (Princeton University and U.S. Department of Commerce N.O.A.A., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, USA)
Material:	Slides Video

14:30 Recent tropical Atlantic multidecadal climate variability is mostly driven by external forcings 20'

remote

Speaker:	Chengfei HE (University of Miami, USA)
Material:	Video

14:50 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse effects on the tropical Pacific 20'

remote

Speaker:	Bryam ORIHUELA (Colorado State University, USA)
Material:	Video

15:10 - 17:30 Session 4: AMV/AMOC and TBI in a warming climate

15:10 Evolving AMOC variability in climate change 20'

remote

Speaker:	Wei LIU (University of California, USA)
Material:	Video

15:30 Coffee break 30'
16:00 Breakout sessions 1h30'

18:00 - 19:30

18:00 Get-together drink 1h30'

All participants are cordially invited to the Get-together drink.

Friday, 11 August 2023

08:45 - 10:15 Session 4 (ctd): AMV/AMOC and TBI in a warming climate

08:45 The influence of a weakened AMOC on weather regimes, blocking, and extreme events in idealized climate model experiments 20'

Speaker:	Katinka BELLOMO (Politecnico di Torino, Italy)
Material:	Video

09:05 Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater 20'

Speaker:	Qian LI (MIT, USA)
Material:	Video

09:25 Critical role of biomass burning aerosols in enhanced historical Indian Ocean warming 20'

Speaker:	Yiqun TIAN (Duke University, USA)
Material:	Video

09:45 Pacific-Atlantic sea-surface temperature variability in a multi-model ensemble of historical and scenario simulations 15'

Speaker:	Davide ZANCHETTIN (University of Venice, Italy)
Material:	Video

10:00 The EPESC Lighthouse Activity 15'

remote

Speaker:	Rowan T. SUTTON (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK)
Material:	Video

10:15 - 12:15
- 10:15 Coffee break 30'
- 10:45 Wrap up 1h30'