6th Summer School on Theory, Mechanisms and Hierarchical Modelling of Climate Dynamics: Artificial Intelligence and Climate Modelling

Description

An ICTP Hybrid meeting

Applications of ML/AI to weather and climate modelling have experienced an exponential growth. Weather forecasts based on AI models trained on re-analysis data are now possible with forecasting skills comparable to those of physical numerical models.

However, to what extent the AI approach can be extended to longer time scales is a research topic of increasing importance. At the same time, traditional atmospheric and ocean models based on numerical solutions of PDEs have increased their resolution to a few kilometers, which makes their application on climate time scale very challenging. In order to test the validity of these methodologies on climate time scales in a statistically sound way, experiments on several multi-decadal simulations are required. In this context, intermediate-complexity climate models provide convenient 'numerical laboratories'. The goal of this workshop is to present state-of-the-art applications of AI/ML, advanced numerical methods and innovative hardware/software solutions tested on intermediate-complexity models, such as the SPEEDY global model developed at ICTP. The workshop will also review the state-of-the-art of AI development.

Topics:

General introduction to AI/ML techniques
Review of state-of-the art of AI developments in global and regional Weather and Climate Modelling
AI/ML applications in Climate Modelling
Can AI be used to generate larger ensembles from physical simulations with just few members?
Uncertaincy estimation from numerical models and AI
Can AI replace physical numerical models on sub-seasonal to multi-decadal time scales for climate applications?
AI for physical parametezations: parameter calibration or full-AI modules?
AI models and convection-peremitting physical models: Complementary or contradictory?
Testing AI methods in an intermediate complexity modelling framework

Speakers and Panelists include:

Tom Beucler, University of Lausanne, Switzerland

Matthew Chantry, ECMWF, UK
Erika Coppola, ICTP, Italy

Alban Farchi, ECMWF, UK
Pierre Gentine, Columbia University, USA
Graziano Giuliani, ICTP, Italy
Scott Martin, University of Washington, USA

Shruti Nath, University of Oxford, UK

Tim Palmer, University of Oxford, UK
Erik van Sebille, Utrecht University, Netherlands
Jakob Schloer, ECMWF, UK

Research abstracts: In the application form, all applicants are requested to submit a brief research abstract for a poster presentation and/or contributed talk. A limited number of abstracts will be selected for the poster session or to give a talk. Please use ICTP templates available for download here and below under 'Material'.

Grants: A limited number of grants are available to support the attendance of selected participants, with priority given to participants from developing countries. There is no registration fee.

Material

AbstractTemplate BOOKLET Post.session online BOOKLET Post.session in person BOOKLET Specialized talks Final list of Participants Group photos Poster

6th Summer School on Theory, Mechanisms and Hierarchical Modelling of Climate Dynamics: Artificial Intelligence and Climate Modelling | (smr 4067)

Go to day

Monday, 5 May 2025

08:30 - 09:00 Registration and administrative formalities

09:00 - 17:30

09:00 Opening 1h0'

Speaker:	Fred Kucharski (ICTP), Serafina Di Gioia (ICTP), Riccardo Farneti (ICTP), Franco Molteni (Agenzia Italia Meteo), Adrian Tompkins (ICTP)
Material:	Slides

10:00 Testing Leonardo Accounts and Configuration 30'

Speaker: Serafina Di Gioia (ICTP, Italy)
10:30 Coffee Break 30'

11:00 Introduction to Atmospheric Modelling 1h30'

Speaker:	Franco Molteni (Agenzia Italiana Meteo, Italy)
Material:	Slides

12:30 Lunch 1h30'

14:00 Introduction to Ocean Modelling 1h0'

Speaker:	Erik van Sebille (Utrecht University, Netherlands)
Material:	Slides

15:00 Intro to Machine Learning 1h0'

Speaker:	Serafina Di Gioia (ICTP, Italy)
Material:	Slides

16:00 Introduction to Deep Learning 1h30'

Speaker:	Serafina Di Gioia (ICTP, Italy)
Material:	Slides

Tuesday, 6 May 2025
- 09:00 - 17:30
  - 09:00 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for Classification and Regression 1h30'
  - 10:30 Coffee Break 1h0'
  - 11:30 Deep Learning for Time Series (E.G. RNN, Long-Short Term Memory NN) 1h0'
  - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
  - 14:00 Lab activity: Typical Structure and Input-Output of Climate Data 1h30' ( AGH - Informatics Laboratory )
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    Speaker: Graziano Giuliani (ICTP, Italy)
  - 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
  - 16:00 Lab activity: Simple Deep Learning Model to Have Temperature Forecast from Other Input Fields 1h30' ( AGH - Informatics Laboratory )
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only for participants 'in person'
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    Speaker: Serafina Di Gioia (ICTP, Italy)
Wednesday, 7 May 2025
- 09:00 - 20:00
  - 09:00 Introduction To Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) 1h30'
  - 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
  - 11:00 Lab activity 1h30'
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only for participants 'in person'
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  - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
  - 14:00 Lab activity: Comparison Between Traditional Numerical Schemes For Climate Simulations (PINN) 1h30' ( AGH - Informatics Laboratory )
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only for participants 'in person'
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    Speakers: Serafina Di Gioia (ICTP, Italy), Graziano Giuliani (ICTP, Italy)
  - 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
  - 16:00 Lab activity: Comparison Between Traditional Numerical Schemes For Climate Simulations (PINN) 1h0' ( AGH - Informatics Laboratory )
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only for participants 'in person'
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    Speakers: Serafina Di Gioia (ICTP, Italy), Graziano Giuliani (ICTP, Italy)
  - 17:00 Poster session 1h30'
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Poster presenters P01 - P24

only for participants 'in person'
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    Material: Booklet
  - 18:30 Welcome reception 1h30'

Thursday, 8 May 2025

09:00 - 18:00

09:00 Introduction to Regional Climate Modelling and the Need of AI 1h30'

Speaker:	Erika Coppola (ICTP, Italy)
Material:	Slides

10:30 Coffee Break 30'
11:00 Introduction to Graph NN (GNN; Difference between Static and Dynamic GNN) 1h0'
12:00 Lunch 1h0'

13:00 AI Physical Routines in Physical Numerical Models 1h0'

Remote talk

Speaker:	Pierre Gentine (Columbia University, USA)
Material:	Slides

14:00 Online Poster Session in Breakout Rooms in Zoom 1h15'

BO room 1: AI for downscaling and regional climate modeling
BO room 2: AI for Monsoon patterns
BO room 3: Hybrid Climate modeling
BO room 4: Extreme events and renewable energy
BO room 5: Ocean modeling and satellite data analysis
BO room 6: Climate change/climate resilience

Material:

Booklet

15:15 Introducing PINA 45'

Speaker: Nicola Demo (MATHLAB, SISSA, Italy)
16:00 Coffee Break 30'
16:30 Lab Activity On GNN 1h30' ( AGH - Informatics Laboratory )
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Friday, 9 May 2025

09:00 - 17:30

09:00 Review of State-of-the Art of AI Developments In Weather and Climate Modelling 1h30'
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Remote talk
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Speaker: Matthew Chantry (ECMWF, UK)
10:30 Group photo 2'
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for remote participants
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10:30 Coffee Break 30'
10:50 Group photo 5'
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for participants 'in person'
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11:00 Towards Reliable Hybrid AI-Climate Modeling 1h30'

Speaker:	Tom Beucler (University of Lausanne, Switzerland)
Material:	Slides Slides with the blackboard discussion

12:30 Lunch 1h30'
14:00 Towards Reliable Hybrid AI-Climate Modeling 1h30'

Speaker: Tom Beucler (University of Lausanne, Switzerland)
15:30 Coffee Break 30'
16:00 Lab Activity 1h30' ( AGH - Informatics Laboratory )
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only for participants 'in person'
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Speaker: Tom Beucler (University of Lausanne, Switzerland)

Monday, 12 May 2025

09:00 - 19:00

09:00 Internal Variability in Decadal Ensemble Simulations 30'

Speaker: Franco Molteni (Agenzia Italiana Meteo, Italy)

09:30 Round Table Discussion on Uncertainty Evaluation 1h0'

Speaker:

Tom Beucler (University of Lausanne, Switzerland), Dario Coscia (SISSA, Italy), Franco Molteni (Agenzia Italiana Meteo, Italy), Jakob Schloer (ECMWF, Germany)

10:30 Coffee break 30'
11:00 Integrating AI, Ocean Models, and Satellite Observations for Eddy-Resolving Surface Ocean State Estimation 1h30'

Speaker: Scott Martin (University of Washington, USA)
12:30 Lunch 1h30'
14:00 Fine-Tuning of the Prithvi Foundational Model 1h0'

Speaker: Shruti Nath (University of Oxford, UK)
15:00 Coffee Break 30'
15:30 Open Problem Description for Hackathon, and Creating Groups to Resolve Them 1h30'

Speaker: Shruti Nath (University of Oxford, UK)

17:00 Poster session 2h0'

Poster presenters P25 - P49

only for participants 'in person'

Material:

Booklet

Tuesday, 13 May 2025

09:00 - 16:30

09:00 Hybrid models at ECMWF, from spectral nudging to online trained model error corrections 1h30'

Speaker: Alban Farchi (ECMWF, UK)
10:30 Coffee Break 30'
11:00 Date-Driven Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasts: From Domain-Specific to Global Models 1h30'
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Remote talk
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Speaker: Jakob Schloer (ECMWF, UK)
12:30 Lunch 1h30'

14:00 Investigating Extreme Precipitation Event Attribution Through Deep-Learning Approaches 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Jeremy Malcom Corner (University of Virginia, USA)
Material:	Abstract

14:15 Enhancing Seasonal Predictions with Machine Learning: A Global Perspective on SST Influence in Early Winter 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Victor Galvan Fraile (University Complutense of Madrid, Spain)
Material:	Abstract Slides

14:30 Retrieving tropical cyclone intensity from climate output: AI approaches and challenges 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Chanh Quoc Kieu (Indiana University, USA)
Material:	Abstract

14:45 Coffee Break 30'

15:15 Enhancing Local Climate Zone Classification in Jakarta Using AI: Machine Learning Approach with Landsat 9 and Land Surface Temperature Integration 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Rezky Yunita (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Indonesia)
Material:	Abstract

15:30 On the application of generative modelling for seasonal climate predictions 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Lluis Palma I Garcia (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain)
Material:	Abstract Slides

15:45 CNN-based forecasting of early winter NAO using sea surface temperature 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Elena Provenzano (Sorbonne University, France)
Material:	Abstract Slides

16:00 Fine-tuning a global weather model for superior subseasonal forecasting 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Vateanui Francois Ernest Sansine (French National Institute of Research for Sustainable Development, French Polynesia)
Material:	Abstract

16:15 Climate projections in the Euro-Mediterranean region: atmospheric circulation patterns and temperature and rainfall future changes 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Matias Ezequiel Olmo (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain)
Material:	Abstract Slides

Wednesday, 14 May 2025

09:30 - 16:45

09:30 Linking Research to Action: Exploring the Value of AI-Driven Rainfall Forecasts over the Greater Horn of Africa 1h30'

Speaker: Shruti Nath (University of Oxford, UK)
11:00 Coffee Break 30'

11:30 AI And Regional Climate Downscaling 1h0'

Speaker:	Valentina Blasone (University of Trieste, Italy)
Material:	Slides

12:30 Lunch 1h30'

14:00 AI-Driven reconstruction of oxygen profiles in the North Atlantic Oxygen Minimum Zone 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Domitille Tihaine Coron (University of Western Britanny, France)
Material:	Abstract

14:15 Towards a Physics-Informed Neural Network for Ocean Circulation Modelling 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Iuri Gorenstein (Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil)
Material:	Abstract

14:30 Learning the Ocean: Leveraging AI to Improve Ocean Data Assimilation 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Davide Grande (IUSS - Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori, Italy)
Material:	Abstract

14:45 Reconstruction of the Surface Geostrophic Current in the Mediterranean Sea from Absolute Dynamic Topography Generated by Generative Adversarial Network (Adtgan) 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Gasana Elysee Manimpire (University of Trieste, Italy)
Material:	Abstract

15:00 Coffee Break 30'

15:30 A machine learning method is used to identify sources of long-term ENSO predictability in the ocean (sea surface temperature (SST) and heat content) and the atmosphere (near-surface zonal wind (U10)). Tropical 10m wind sseem to represents an inreresting source of ENSO predictability 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Ioana Colfescu (National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK)
Material:	Abstract

15:45 Data-Informed Inversion Model (DIIM): a framework to retrieve marine optical constituents in the BOUSSOLE site using a three-stream irradiance model 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Carlos Enmanuel Soto Lopez (University of Trieste, Italy)
Material:	Abstract

16:00 A Probabilistic Forecast for Multi-year ENSO Using Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Balaji Baduru (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), India)
Material:	Abstract

16:15 Detecting Localized Density Anomalies in Climate Data via Coin-Flip Statistics 30'

Speaker: Sebastian Springer (SISSA, Italy)

Thursday, 15 May 2025

09:30 - 17:30

09:30 From observations to realistic simulations, the mechanisms that develop and prevent convective organization 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Alejandro Casallas Garcia (Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Austria)
Material:	Abstract

09:45 Investigating deep convective systems with Machine Learning and causal inference across a hierarchy of datasets 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Andrea Polesello (Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Austria)
Material:	Abstract

10:00 Data-Driven Equation Discovery of In-Cloud Vertical Velocity 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Alzbeta Pechacova (Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Austria)
Material:	Abstract

10:15 Exploring windows of opportunity at sub-seasonal time scales for extreme precipitation events: the Valencia DANA case study 15'

Specialized Talk

Speaker:	Nuria Perez Zanon (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain)
Material:	Abstract Slides

10:30 Coffee Break 30'
11:00 Circulation Regimes and The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in AI Prediction Models 30'

Speaker: Tim Palmer (University of Oxford, UK)

11:30 Round Table Discussion: Can AI Models Fully Replace Physical Models for Long-Range Forecasting and Climate Simulations 1h0'

Speaker:

Erika Coppola (ICTP, Italy), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (BSC, Spain), Franco Molteni (Agenzia Italiana Meteo, Italy), Tim Palmer (University of Oxford, UK), Jakob Schloer (ECMWF, UK)

12:30 Lunch 1h30'
14:00 Hackathon 1h0'
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15:00 Coffee Break 30'
15:30 Hackathon 1h30'
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Friday, 16 May 2025
- 09:00 - 12:45
  - 09:00 Hackathon Presentations 1h20'
  - 10:20 Group photo 5'
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for participants 'in person'
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  - 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
  - 11:00 Hackathon Presentations 1h30'
  - 12:30 Closing 15'