2nd Workshop on Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical Convection and the Madden Julian Oscillation

Administration

Description

Endorsed by
the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and
the Earth System Modelling and Observations (ESMO) Core Project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP),
both under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

The first workshop on Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical Convection and the Madden Julian Oscillation was held at ICTP in March 2006. It is the right time, 20 years after, to reflect the past accomplishments and lessons learned, identify remaining challenges, and outline future work.

The workshop will address the following questions:

What are the current gaps in our understanding of tropical multi-scale organised convection, the MJO and its global impact?
What are the major barriers to advancing predictions of tropical multi-scale organised convection, the MJO and its global impact?
What would be the most effective and efficient ways to integrate often siloed efforts of observations and modeling in the study of tropical multi-scale organised convection, the MJO and its global impact?
What would be the optimal ways to use the modern technologies of observations, AI/ML, and HPC to advance information gathering, understanding, and model improvement of tropical multi-scale organised convection, the MJO and its global impact?

The workshop will cover the following topics:

Observation of the Madden Julian Oscillation and field campaigns
Modeling the Madden-Julian Oscillation (simple theoretical models, comprehensive Earth system models, and AI/ML models)
MJO prediction and predictability from days to years, including interaction with other modes of variability
MJO’s global and regional impacts

Speakers:
Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria

Franco Molteni, Italia Meteo

Mitchell Moncrieff, NCAR (retired)

Andrew Robertson, Columbia University

Kunio Yoneyama, JAMSTEC

Grants: A limited number of grants are available to support the attendance of selected participants, with priority given to participants from developing countries. There is no registration fee.

Material

Abstract Template Booklet Post.sessions Contributed Talks Abstracts Poster Preliminary list of Participants Preliminary programme

2nd Workshop on Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical Convection and the Madden Julian Oscillation | (smr 4243)

Go to day

Monday, 26 October 2026
- 08:30 - 09:00 Registration and administrative formalities
- 09:00 - 09:30 INTRODUCTION
  - 09:00 Welcome 10'
    
    Speaker: Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF)
  - 09:10 Introductory Talk 1 10'
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Remote
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    Speaker: Julia Slingo
  - 09:20 Introductory Talk 2 10'
    
    Speaker: Franco Molteni (Italia Meteo)
- 09:30 - 12:00
  - 09:30 Global Data & Global Patterns 1h0'
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KEYNOTE Theme 1
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    Speaker: Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR)
  - 10:30 Coffee break 30'
  - 11:00 Field Data & Tropical Variability 1h0'
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KEYNOTE Theme 2
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    Speaker: Kunio Yoneyama (JAMSTEC)
- 12:00 - 14:00 Oral presentations - Global Data & Global Patterns
  - 12:00 Tropics-wide Intraseasonal Oscillation 15'
    
    Speaker: Jiawei Bao (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)
  - 12:15 On the Existence and Implications of the Global Atmospheric Energy Cycle Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation 15'
    
    Speaker: Naoko Sakaeda (School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma)
  - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
- 14:00 - 15:30 Oral presentations - Global Data & Global Patterns - Field Data & Tropical Variability
  - 14:00 Increasing Trend of MJO Precipitation and Its Global Impacts on Tropical Cyclones, Atmospheric Rivers, and Extreme Rainfall 15'
    
    Speaker: Shuyi Chen (University of Washington)
  - 14:15 The MJO as Envelope, Waves as Trigger: Multi-Scale Pathways to Near-Equatorial Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Maritime Continent 15'
    
    Speaker: Michał Brennek (Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences)
  - 14:30 Phase-Dependent Co-Variations between Cross-Equatorial Northerly Surges (CENS) and the MJO 15'
    
    Speaker: Qoosaku Moteki (JAMSTEC)
  - 14:45 Long-term Observations Reveal Non-negligible Temperature Contributions to Moist Static Energy during the MJO Transition from Suppressed to Active Phases 15'
    
    Speaker: Ray Pallav Kumar (Florida Institute of Technology)
  - 15:00 Coffee break 30'
- 15:30 - 18:00 Poster session & Discussions
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Only for participants 'in person'
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  - 15:30 Poster Session — Themes 1 + 2 1h0'
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P14 - P26
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  - 16:30 Breakout Group Discussions — Themes 1 + 2 1h30'
Tuesday, 27 October 2026
- 09:30 - 12:00
  - 09:30 Theory & Mechanisms 1h0'
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KEYNOTE Theme 3
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    Speaker: Boualem Khouider (University of Victoria)
  - 10:30 Coffee break 30'
  - 11:00 Modeling 1h0'
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KEYNOTE Theme 4
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    Speaker: Daehyun Kim (SNU)
- 12:00 - 14:00 Oral presentations - Theory & Mechanisms
  - 12:00 A Simple Model for Stratospheric Interactions with the MJO 15'
    
    Speaker: Jonathan Lin (Cornell University)
  - 12:15 A Dynamical Transition Between Rossby Modes and the MJO in an Idealized General Circulation Model 15'
    
    Speaker: Cameron George Macdonald (Harvard University Center for the Environment)
  - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
- 14:00 - 15:30 Oral presentations - Theory & Mechanisms - Modeling
  - 14:00 Effect of Cloud-Radiative Feedback in Cloud-Resolving Simulations Coupled to Beta-Plane Dynamics 15'
    
    Speaker: Shuguang Wang (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University)
  - 14:15 The Madden–Julian Oscillation in Two High-Resolution Versions of IFS-NEMO: Spatiotemporal Representation and Long-Term Variability 15'
    
    Speaker: Bernardo Maraldi (Barcelona Supercomputing Center)
  - 14:30 Variation of Thermodynamic Conditions in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Associated with Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations 15'
    
    Speaker: Satoru Yokoi (JAMSTEC)
  - 14:45 A predictive model for the MJO based on dynamical analogs 15'
    
    Speaker: Cesar Nicolas Diaz Negrin (Universidad de la Republica)
  - 15:00 Coffee break 30'
- 15:30 - 18:00 Poster session & Discussions
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Only for participants 'in person'
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  - 15:30 Poster Session — Themes 3 + 4 1h0'
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P01-P13
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  - 16:30 Breakout Group Discussions — Themes 3 + 4 1h30'
Wednesday, 28 October 2026
- 09:00 - 16:00
  - 09:00 Plenary Discussion — Themes 1 + 2 1h30'
    
    Speakers: Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR), Kunio Yoneyama (JAMSTEC)
  - 10:30 Coffee break 30'
  - 11:00 Plenary Discussion — Themes 3 + 4 1h30'
    
    Speakers: Boualem Khouider (University of Victoria), Kim Daehyun (SNU)
  - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
  - 14:00 ★ Excursion — Visit to Miramare Castle 2h0'
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Only for participants 'in person'
Free afternoon following the excursion.
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Thursday, 29 October 2026
- 09:30 - 12:00
  - 09:30 Prediction 1h0'
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KEYNOTE Theme 5
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    Speaker: Hyemi Kim (EWU)
  - 10:30 Coffee break 30'
  - 11:00 Applications & Remote Regional Impacts 1h0'
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KEYNOTE Theme 6
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    Speaker: Andrew Robertson (Columbia University)
- 12:00 - 14:00 Oral presentations - Prediction
  - 12:00 Object-Based Climatology and Verification of the MJO 15'
    
    Speaker: Matthew Adam Janiga (US Naval Research Laboratory)
  - 12:15 An AI-driven MJO forecast model and its systematic comparison with FuXi 15'
    
    Speaker: Tang Youmin (University of Northern British Columbia)
  - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
- 14:00 - 15:30 Oral presentations - Prediction - Applications & Remote Regional Impacts
  - 14:00 TBA 15'
  - 14:15 Heat, Moisture, and Motion: How a Warming Climate Morphs the MJO and Its Storm Track Influence 15'
    
    Speaker: Amanda Bowden (University of Colorado Boulder)
  - 14:30 The Madden–Julian Oscillation and Its Influence on West African Climate Variability: Implications for Forecasting and Early Warning Systems 15'
    
    Speaker: Bibian Chidinma Ekot (Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET))
  - 14:45 ENSO Modulation of the MJO and Its Impacts on South America during the Transition Seasons SCHEIBE Luana Aparecida 15'
    
    Speaker: Luana Aparecida Scheibe (Federal University of Paraná)
  - 15:00 Coffee break 30'
- 15:30 - 18:00 Poster session & Discussions
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Only for participants 'in person'
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  - 15:30 Poster Session — Themes 5 + 6 1h0'
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P27-P37
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  - 16:30 Breakout Group Discussions — Themes 5 + 6 1h30'
Friday, 30 October 2026
- 09:30 - 11:00 Oral presentations - Prediction - Applications & Remote Regional Impacts
  - 09:30 How Close Are We to the Predictability Limit of the MJO? 15'
    
    Speaker: Hera Kim (SNU)
  - 09:45 Sumatra squalls in present and future climates 15'
    
    Speaker: Simon Peatman (Centre for Climate Research Singapore)
  - 10:00 Evaluating MJO Modulation of East Pacific Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclone Genesis in S2S Forecasts Using the Unified Forecast System 15'
    
    Speaker: Yu-Cian Tsai (Colorado State University)
  - 10:15 ENSO-Dependent Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Southern African Summer Rainfall 15'
    
    Speaker: Kenedy Cipriano Silverio (Instituto Politécnico de Songo (ISPS))
  - 10:30 Coffee break 30'
- 11:00 - 16:00
  - 11:00 Plenary Session- Prediction - Applications & Remote Regional Impacts 1h30'
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Themes 5 + 6
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    Speakers: Andrew Robertson (Columbia University), Hyemi Kim (EWU)
  - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
  - 14:00 Final Plenary Discussion 1h45'
  - 15:45 Closing Remarks 15'