Scientific Calendar Event

Regional climate models (RCMs) are widely used tools to produce high-resolution climate simulations at regional scales. The ICTP regional climate modeling system, RegCM, is one of the most used RCMs worldwide, with applications ranging from regional process studies to paleoclimate, climate change, chemistry-climate and biosphere-atmosphere interactions. 

According to global model (GCM) projections, temperatures may increase over South America (SA) by a wide range: by ~1.0 to 7.0°C by the end of the 21st century. Although ensemble average changes indicate a general drying of the Amazon and wetting of southern SA, individual model projections range from a reduction of 20-40% to an increase of 5-10% over central and tropical SA, with even larger inter-model spread over southern SA.

Due to their coarse resolution, however, the GCMs considered in those studies do not reproduce all features of climate and its variability.  RCMs can represent important local forcing features of the climate (such as complex topography, land-surface heterogeneity, coastlines and regional water bodies) and also better capture the interannual climate variability. It is argued that RCMs can reproduce the observed interannual variability of precipitation due to ENSO in some SA sectors better than the driving GCM can. Recent RegCM4 simulations over the SA region, contributing to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), have verified previous results with GCMs with a better representation of local and remote influences such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

As in previous workshops, this event will include lectures and extensive hands-on sessions on the theory of regional climate dynamics and regional climate change while providing a background on regional climate modeling studies focused on the SA region. Part of the workshop will involve the community of RCM over SA users in meetings and discussions about past and future activities in line with the CORDEX framework.  The school is foreseen for a limited number of participants with proven experience in handling climate data and an interest in starting use of the RegCM4 as a tool for regional climate studies.

Scientists and students from countries that are members of the United Nations, UNESCO or IAEA, may attend the workshop subject to approval by the activity Directors. The School is intended for early career scientists and advanced Ph.D. students from developing countries, in particular South America. As the classes will be conducted in English, participants should have an adequate working knowledge of that language.

Although the ICTP mandate is to help researchers from developing countries through a programme of training activities within a framework of international cooperation, a limited number of students and post-doctoral scientists from developed countries are also welcome to attend. As a rule, travel and subsistence expenses of the participants should be borne by the home institution. Every effort should be made by candidates to secure support for their fare (or a least half-fare). However, limited funds are available for some participants who are nationals of, and working in, a developing country. No registration fee is required. 
Go to day
  • Monday, 15 February 2016
    • 08:30 - 21:00
      • 08:30 Registration 1h0'
      • 09:30 Regional Earth System Climate modeling at ICTP: current status and future prospective 30'
        Speaker: Erika Coppola (the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics - ICTP, Italy)
      • 10:00 A review of applications by GreC-USP of RegCM model to climate analysis, forecasting, and future projections over South America 30'
        Speaker: Rosmeri da Rocha (Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas, Brazil)
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 11:00 Multiscale analysis of precipitation over South America: A preliminary analysis of the added value of RCMs 30'
        Speaker: Silvina Solman (Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina)
      • 11:30 Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins 30'
        Speaker: Marta Llopart (Universidade Estadual Paulista, Brazil)
      • 12:00 Lunch break 2h0'
      • 14:00 RegCM4 Tutorial 4h0'
        Speakers: Graziano Giuliani (the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics - ICTP, Italy), Laura Mariotti (the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics - ICTP, Italy), Marta Llopart (UNESP)
  • Tuesday, 16 February 2016
    • 09:30 - 21:00
      • 09:30 Added value of Regional climate modeling. where to look for it and how: two examples from Med and EURO-CORDEX ensemble 30'
        Speaker: Erika Coppola (ICTP)
      • 10:00 Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections 30'
        Speaker: Laura Mariotti (ICTP)
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 11:00 Cyclones over Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean: downscale with RegCM4 30'
        Speaker: Michelle Reboita (Federal University of Itajuba, Brazil)
      • 11:30 Impact of global warming on the vegetation in South America from regional climate model simulations 30'
        Speaker: Julio Pablo Reyes Fernandez (National Institute of Space Research, Weather Forecasting Centre and Climate Studies, Brazil)
      • 12:00 Lunch break 2h0'
      • 14:00 RegCM4 Tutorial 4h0'
        Speakers: Graziano Giuliani (ICTP), Laura Mariotti (ICTP), Marta Llopart (UNESP)
      • 18:00 Ice Breaker 3h0'
  • Wednesday, 17 February 2016
    • 09:30 - 18:00
      • 09:30 General Circulation Patterns from Large to Regional Scale: Impacts on South America 30'
        Speaker: Tercio Ambrizzi (Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto Astronomico e Geofisico e Ciencias Atmosfericas, Brazil)
      • 10:00 tba 30'
        Speaker: Iracema Cavalcanti (Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE, Centro de Previsao do Tempo e Estudos Climaticos CPTEC, Brazil)
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 11:00 Variability of summertime transient eddy propagation over South America 30'
        Speaker: Marcelo Barreiro Parillo (Universidad de La Republica, Uruguay)
      • 11:30 The Regional Earth System Model (RegESM) using RegCM4 coupled with the MIT gem ocean model 30'
        Speaker: Laura Mariotti (ICTP)
      • 12:00 Lunch break 2h0'
      • 14:00 Laboratory Session 4h0'
        Speakers: Laura Mariotti (ICTP), Marta Llopart (UNESP), Graziano Giuliani (ICTP)
  • Thursday, 18 February 2016
    • 09:30 - 11:00
      • 09:30 Assessment of Climate change impacts on grain crops for the Southern Brazil - projections from SA CORDEX and CMIPS 30'
        Speaker: Santiago Cuadra (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, EMBRAPA, Brazil)
      • 10:00 Local and remote climatic impacts due to land use degradation in the Amazon "Arc of Deforestation" 30'
        Speaker: Maria Elisa Silva (Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil)
      • 10:30 Coffee break 30'
    • 11:00 - 12:00 Participants Presentations
      • 11:00 Regional Climate Simulations and impacts on Northern and Northeastern Brazil 20'
        Speaker: Francisco Vasconcelos Junior (Federal University of Ceara, UFC, Brazil)
      • 11:20 Tba 20'
        Speaker: Pablo Borges (Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, UFSC, Brazil)
      • 11:40 Land surface-atmosphere interaction in southeastern South America 20'
        Speaker: Romina Ruscica (Universidad de Buenos Aires, UBA, Centro de Invesigaciones del Mar y la Atmosferam, CIMA CONICET, Argentina)
    • 12:00 - 18:00
      • 12:00 Lunch break 2h0'
      • 14:00 Laboratory Session 4h0'
        Speakers: Graziano Giuliani (ICTP), Laura Mariotti (ICTP), Marta Llopart (UNESP)
  • Friday, 19 February 2016
    • 09:30 - 18:00
      • 11:00 Downscaling of climate change projections over Southeast Brazil 30'
        Speaker: Sin Chan Chou (Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos, CPTEC, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, INPE, Brazil)