Scientific Calendar Event



Description The climate community is still faced with large uncertainties in estimating possible climate changes in the next decades and quantifying the relative role of anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Although most modern climate models are able to reproduce reasonably well global climatologies and patterns of interannual variations, they still struggle with pervasive biases and the representation of some of the climate phenomena involving the interaction and coupling between the atmosphere, the ocean and the cryosphere. The problem is compounded by the limited understanding of some of the physical mechanisms giving rise to both our present mean climate and its natural variability at different time scales.

One possible way forward is the use of a hierarchy of models to tackle the most pressing questions in climate dynamics and modeling. Key among them, is whether the climate is stable, or whether internal feedbacks could lead to tipping points, abrupt changes, and transitions to fundamentally different equilibria. Changes in the oceanic overturning, ice-albedo effects, land-surface and vegetation coupling to the atmosphere, and radiative-convective properties of the atmosphere have all been suggested as possible causes of instability in the climate system. Advances in our understanding, quantification, and modelling of these processes are necessary both for the interpretation of the paleoclimate record and for the projection of possible future climate states. A variety of studies have found that multiple equilibria exist both in highly idealized and more comprehensive models of the climate system. Whether multiple equilibria do exist in state-of-the-art climate models is still a subject of controversy.

A fundamental understanding of key processes within a hierarchical modeling framework will eventually translate into a better representation and simulation within state-of-the-art climate models, as it brings new insights for process-based evaluation of climate model reliability and fit for purpose. The use of hierarchies additionally promotes the use of standardized performance metrics and highlights instances when post-processing approaches (e.g. bias correction) or diverse model tuning practices should be explored.

The school will be based on lectures on theoretical aspects of atmosphere, ocean and climate dynamics, with a focus on the present state of established knowledge and relevant mechanisms. The topic of the school, Multiple Equilibra in the Climate System, will be the subject of afternoon lectures, giving an overview of the most recent progress and hypotheses suggesting the existence of multiple equilibrium states, and consequences for past and future climates. Afternoons will also be devoted to practical sessions, involving the use of simplified climate models and analysis of relevant data sets.

The school will be followed by the workshop WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity: 2nd Meeting on Monsoons and Tropical Rain Belts , SMR3252, 2 - 5 July 2018, go to link
http://indico.ictp.it/event/8457/
 
 

Confirmed speakers:
  • Simona Bordoni, CalTech, USA
  • David Ferreira, Reading U., UK
  • In-Sik Kang, SNU, Republic of Korea
  • John Marshall, MIT, USA
  • Franco Molteni, ECMWF, UK
  • Brian Rose, U. Albany, USA
  • Stephen Thomson, U. exeter, UK
  • Adrian M. Tompkins, ICTP, Italy
  • Geoff K. Vallis, U. Exeter, UK
  • Shang-Ping Xie, SCRIPPS, USA

ATTENTION:

APPLICATION HERE IS FOR BOTH SCHOOL AND WORKSHOP,
DEADLINE 1 MARCH 2018


SHOULD YOU WISH TO APPLY TO THE WORKSHOP ONLY, PLEASE VISIT THE RELEVANT PAGE http://indico.ictp.it/event/8457/
AND APPLY THERE


 
Go to day
  • Monday, 25 June 2018
    • 08:00 - 20:30
      • 08:00 Registration 30'
        Registration and payment formalities: Registration at venue - ATTENTION ONLY for ALL Faculty and for those participants who are NOT staying in the ICTP Guest Houses- 
        Paid participants registered in the guest houses need to go DIRECTLY (with passport!) 1st to Operations office FERMI Building: Monday, Tuesday, Friday 8:30-12:00 and 13:30 - 14:30 to receive a check and 2nd to UNICREDIT BANK branch next to operations office to receive the cash, ATTENTION open ONLY on Mondays 8:20 to 13:20 and from 14:30 to 16:00
      • 08:30 Coupled Climate Dynamics: Energy transport by the Atmosphere and Ocean 1h0'
        Speaker: John Marshall (MIT, USA)
        Material: Slides
      • 09:30 Climates of Aquaplanets: Energy transport in simplified worlds 1h0'
        Speaker: John Marshall (MIT, USA)
      • 10:30 coffee break 30' ( Terrace )
      • 11:00 Fun problems in Climate Dynamics 1h0'
        Speaker: John Marshall (MIT, USA)
        Material: Slides
      • 12:00 lunch break 1h30' ( )
      • 13:30 Introduction to Isca 2h0'
        Speaker: Stephen Thomson (U. Exeter, U.K.)
        Material: Slides
      • 15:30 coffee break 30' ( Terrace )
      • 16:00 Introduction to Isca 1h30'
        Speaker: Stephen Thomson (U. Exeter, U.K.)
      • 19:00 Ice Breaker welcome reception 1h30'
  • Tuesday, 26 June 2018
    • 08:30 - 17:30
      • 08:30 Fundamentals of Atmospheric Dynamics I 1h0'
        Speaker: In-Sik Kang (SNU, Republic of Korea)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:30 Fundamentals of Atmospheric Dynamics II 1h0'
        Speaker: In-Sik Kang (SNU, Republic of Korea)
        Material: Video
      • 10:30 coffee break 30' ( Terrace )
      • 11:00 Fundamentals of Atmospheric Dynamics III 1h0'
        Speaker: In-Sik Kang (SNU, Republic of Korea)
        Material: Video
      • 12:00 lunch break 1h30' ( Terrace )
      • 13:30 Multiple equilibria in the climate system: understanding the role of oceans and sea ice 1h0'
        Speaker: Brian Rose (U. Albany, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 14:30 Multiple equilibria in the climate system: understanding the role of oceans and sea ice 1h0'
        Speaker: Brian Rose (U. Albany, USA)
        Material: Video
      • 15:30 coffee break 30' ( Terrace )
      • 16:00 Exercises with Isca 1h30'
        Material: Slides
  • Wednesday, 27 June 2018
    • 08:30 - 17:30
      • 08:30 Structure of the tropics and midlatitudes: Contrasts and Similarities 1h0'
        Speaker: Geoffrey Vallis (U. Exeter, U.K.)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:30 Structure of the tropics and midlatitudes: Contrasts and Similarities 1h0'
        Speaker: Geoffrey Vallis (U. Exeter, U.K.)
        Material: Video
      • 10:30 coffee break 30' ( Terrace )
      • 11:00 Changes in latitude: Structure of the tropics and midlatitudes: Contrasts and Similarities 1h0'
        Speaker: Geoffrey Vallis (U. Exeter, U.K.)
        Material: Video
      • 12:00 lunch break 1h30' ( Terrace )
      • 13:30 Using multiple equilibria to interpret paleoclimate 1h0'
        Speaker: David Ferreira (U. Reading, U.K.)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 14:30 Using multiple equilibria to interpret paleoclimate 1h0'
        Speaker: David Ferreira (U. Reading, U.K.)
        Material: Video
      • 15:30 coffee break 30' ( Terrace )
      • 16:00 Exercises with Isca 1h30'
  • Thursday, 28 June 2018
    • 08:30 - 17:30
      • 08:30 Interactions between convection and large-scale circulations in the tropical atmosphere 1h0'
        Speaker: Simona Bordoni (CALTECH, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:30 Modern theories of monsoons 1h0'
        Speaker: Simona Bordoni (CALTECH, USA)
        Material: Video
      • 10:30 coffee break 30' ( Terrace )
      • 11:00 Tipping points in monsoons? 1h0'
        Speaker: Simona Bordoni (CALTECH, USA)
        Material: Video
      • 12:00 lunch break 1h30' ( Terrace )
      • 13:30 Coupled ocean-atmospheric feedbacks for tropical convective variability 1h0'
        Speaker: Shang-Ping Xie (SCRIPPS, USA)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 14:30 Coupled ocean-atmospheric feedbacks for tropical convective variability 1h0'
        Speaker: Shang-Ping Xie (SCRIPPS, USA)
        Material: Slides
      • 15:30 coffee break 30'
      • 16:00 Exercises with Isca 1h30'
  • Friday, 29 June 2018
    • 08:30 - 17:30
      • 08:30 Predictability of atmospheric flow regimes in seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts 1h0'
        Speaker: Franco Molteni (ECMWF, U.K.)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 09:30 Flow regimes over the North Atlantic and teleconnections with the tropics 1h0'
        Speaker: Franco Molteni (ECMWF, U.K.)
        Material: Video
      • 10:30 coffee break 30' ( Terrace )
      • 11:00 A minimal dynamical model of North Atlantic Oscillation regimes 1h0'
        Speaker: Franco Molteni (ECMWF, U.K.)
        Material: Slides Video
      • 12:00 lunch break 1h30' ( Terrace )
      • 13:30 Vegetation-Carbon-Cycle-Climate Feedback: from glacial cycles to climate change 1h0'
        Speaker: Ning Zeng (U. Maryland, USA)
      • 14:30 Vegetation-Carbon-Cycle-Climate Feedback: from glacial cycles to climate change 1h0'
        Speaker: Ning Zeng (U. Maryland, USA)
        Material: Video
      • 15:30 coffee break 30' ( Terrace )
      • 16:00 Exercises with Isca 1h30'
  • Saturday, 30 June 2018
    • 08:30 - 17:30
      • 08:30 Lab Project 2h30' ( Informatics Lab )
      • 11:00 Lab Project 1h0' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
      • 12:00 lunch break 1h30' ( )
      • 13:30 Lab Project 2h30' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )
      • 16:00 Exercises with Isca 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House - Informatics Laboratory )