Description
Programme for the Conference (3 - 6 June 2019)
is available via the following link:
http://www.scert.ru/en/conferences/cites2019/

Organizers:
E. Gordov
Institute for Monitoring of Climate and Ecological Systems, SB RAS, Russia
V. Khan
Hydrometcentre of Russia
M. Tolstykh
Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS and Hydrometcentre of Russia

ICTP Contact/Organizer:
A. Tompkins, ICTP, Trieste, Italy

The theme of the School is subseasonal to decadal (S2D) weather and climate predictions. The school will cover aspects from the modeling and data assimilation to forecast information delivery and relevant practical applications.
 
Recently, The accuracy of S2D predictions have significantly advanced, exploiting potential sources of atmosphere predictability, such as interactions of the atmosphere with the ocean, sea-ice, land surface, and internal atmosphere modes of variability such as the MJO and QBO. The event comprises of a one-week School with lectures given by leading experts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP), introducing systems from some of the world’s leading operational centers. The lectures will be complemented by lab exercises using open-access data of near-real time and historical forecasts.

In the second week, the Computational Information Technologies for Environmental Sciences Conference will take place.

More information on the Conference, including abstract requirements, is available at: http://www.scert.ru/en/conferences/cites2019/

Topics:
• Subseasonal prediction;
• Seasonal prediction;
• Interannual prediction;
• Earth system modelling;
• Practical applications of long range forecasts.

Speakers include:
L. Batte, Meteo-France
L. Ferranti, ECMWF, UK
D. Hudson, BoM, Australia
V. Khan, Hydrometcentre of Russia
Lee, June-Yi, University of Pusan, Korea
B. Merryfield, CCMA, Canada
R. Saural, CIMA, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina
A. Tompkins, ICTP, Trieste, Italy
M. Tolstykh, INM RAS, Russia

The School invites applications from PhD students, early career scientists and national meteorological services specialists. A working knowledge of English language is required and a motivation letter in English forms part of the application process. Participants are expected to know how to handle NetCDF data and to visualize them.
Go to day
  • Monday, 27 May 2019
    • 10:00 - 14:00 Session 1
      • 10:00 WEEK 1 - SCHOOL OPENING and Organizational Matters 20'
        School Directors, INM Director
        (Roshydromet Representative)
        
        Venue:
        Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics - RAS
        Moscow, Russia
        
        
      • 10:20 Seasonal Prediction 1h0'
        Speaker: Bill MERRYFIELD (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:20 Coffee break 25'
      • 11:45 An Introduction to ERA-5 and the Eurosip seasonal forecasts: overview of the products and the system 1h0'
        Speaker: Adrian TOMPKINS (ICTP, Trieste, Italy)
        Material: Slides notes
      • 12:45 Lunch break 1h15'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Session 2
      Introduction and Laboratory Sessions
      • 14:00 C3S Seasonal Forecasts and ERA5 1h30'
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 16:00 C3S Seasonal Forecasts and ERA5 1h30'
  • Tuesday, 28 May 2019
    • 09:30 - 14:00 Session 3
      • 09:30 North American Multi-Model Ensemble 1h0'
        Speaker: Bill MERRYFIELD (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada)
        Material: Slides
      • 10:30 Subseasonal Predictions: sources of predictability and current skills 1h0'
        Speaker: Laura FERRANTI (ECMWF, U.K.)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 12:00 New Russian long-range prediction system 30'
        Speaker: Mikhail TOLSTYKH (Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS, Moscow, Russia)
        Material: Slides
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Session 4
      • 14:00 Introduction to CHFP 1h30'
        Speaker: Ramiro SAURRAL (CIMA, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina)
        Material: Slides
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 16:00 Introduction to CHFP 1h30'
        Speaker: Ramiro SAURRAL (CIMA, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina)
  • Wednesday, 29 May 2019
    • 10:00 - 14:15 Session 5
      • 10:00 Operational prediction within climate services information system of WMO 1h0'
        Speaker: Valentina KHAN (Hydrometcentre of Russia)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:00 Earth system model of INM RAS as an instrument for future decadal prediction of climate changes 30'
        Speaker: Evgeny VOLODIN (Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Moscow, Russia)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 12:00 Subseasonal and seasonal forecast verification 1h0'
        Speaker: Debbie HUDSON (Australian Bureau of Meteorology)
        Material: Slides
    • 14:15 - 17:45 Session 6
      • 14:15 Using decadal forecasting 1h30'
        Speaker: Doug SMITH (Met. Office, U.K.)
        Material: Slides
      • 15:45 Coffee break 30'
      • 16:15 Using decadal forecasting 1h30'
        Speaker: Doug SMITH (Met Office, U.K.)
  • Thursday, 30 May 2019
    • 10:00 - 14:00 Session 7
      • 10:00 Seasonal to multi-year prediction and predictability 1h0'
        Speaker: June-Yi LEE (Pusan National University, Republic of Korea)
        Material: Slides
      • 11:00 Coffee break 30'
      • 11:30 Initial shocks and drifts in decadal climate predictions 1h0'
        Speaker: Ramiro SAURRAL (CIMA, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina)
        Material: Slides
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Session 8
      • 14:00 The IRI data library 1h30'
        Speaker: Angel MUNOZ (IRI, Columbia University, U.S.A.)
        Material: Slides
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 16:00 The IRI data library 1h30'
        Speaker: Angel MUNOZ (IRI, Columbia University, U.S.A.)
        Material: Slides
    • 18:00 - 22:00 Session 9
      • 18:00 Reception 2h0'
  • Friday, 31 May 2019
    • 10:00 - 14:00 Session 10
      • 10:00 Dealing with uncertainties in seasonal predictions 1h0'
        Speaker: Lauriane BATTE (Meteo-France)
      • 11:00 Coffee break 30'
      • 11:30 Calibration and verification of seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts 1h0'
        Speaker: Angel MUNOZ (IRI, Columbia University, U.S.A.)
      • 12:30 Lunch break 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Session 11
      • 14:00 Open sessions (possible to also demonstrate S2S) 1h30'
        Report of groups on their tasks
        Speaker: Adrian TOMPKINS (ICTP, Trieste, Italy)
      • 15:30 Coffee break 30'
      • 16:00 Open sessions (possible to also demonstrate S2S) 1h30'
        Speaker: Adrian TOMPKINS (ICTP, Trieste, Italy)