Advancing Subtropical Climate Dynamics: Diagonal Convergence Zones, Droughts, and Floods in Past, Present and Future Climates

Administration

Description

An ICTP Virtual Meeting

Subtropical hotspots of climate change are clear in paleo, present, and future climates. However, treatment of the subtropics as the margin between low- and mid-latitude dynamics has limited advancement of subtropical theory and prediction, undermining regional efforts to manage climate risks.

This workshop aims to invigorate new research focused on subtropical dynamics, extremes, and prediction. This event follows a focused subtropics session at EGU2022. The format will combine plenary talks, breakout discussions, and collaboration spaces to plan and prototype new theory and analysis approaches and potential climate service products. Outcomes will include proof-of-concept analysis approaches, a perspective paper setting out priority research areas for future subtropical research, and further development of subtropical dynamics research networks. We particularly welcome contribution to these planned discussions from early career researchers working in subtropical regions from across the globe. The virtual workshop programme will be structured to enable collaboration with colleagues from across time zones.

Topics

The annual cycle of subtropical regions and changes to this seasonality.
Paleoclimate perspective on subtropical climates.
Subtropical wave dynamics and their role in dynamical convergence zones, monsoon fluctuations, and extremes.
Synoptic systems and extreme regimes of the subtropics incl. tropical-extratropical cloudbands, cut-off lows, mid-latitude cyclones, subtropical cyclones and anticyclones, droughts and floods.
Surface-atmosphere (land and ocean) interactions.
Model (S2S to climate) representation of subtropical processes.
Predictability and prediction systems for the subtropics.
Outlook for climate services in the subtropics.

Registration: There is no registration fee.

Material

Abstract Templates Final list of Participants How to choose your Time Zone Poster

Advancing Subtropical Climate Dynamics: Diagonal Convergence Zones, Droughts, and Floods in Past, Present and Future Climates | (smr 3687)

Go to day

Monday, 1 August 2022
- 06:30 - 08:30
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Core Themes:
• The annual cycle of subtropical regions and changes to this seasonality.
• Paleoclimate perspective on subtropical climates.
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  - 06:30 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'
- 08:30 - 09:30 Eastern Hemisphere Plenaries
  - 08:30 Introduction 10'
    
    Speaker: Neil HART (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK)
  - 08:40 The annual cycle of subtropical regions and changes to this seasonality 20'
    
    Speaker: Neil HART (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK)
  - 09:00 Simulations of southern African rainfall regimes during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264-3.025 Ma) 30'
    
    Speaker: Sarah ROFFE (Institute for soil, climate and water, Agricultural Research Council, South Africa)
- 09:45 - 11:00 Eastern Hemisphere Discussions
  - 09:45 Open-floor discussions 1h5'
  - 10:50 Wrap-up of main ideas 10'
- 11:00 - 13:00
  - 11:00 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town / Ice breaker 2h0'
- 14:00 - 15:00 Western Hemisphere Plenaries
  - 14:00 Introduction 10'
    
    Speaker: Neil HART (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK)
  - 14:10 Diagonal Convergence Zones 20'
    
    Speaker: Benjamin LINTNER (Rutgers University, USA)
  - 14:30 Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: contrasting past and future hydrological cycles 30'
    
    Speaker: Natalie BURLS (George Mason University, USA)
- 15:15 - 17:00 Western Hemisphere Discussions
  - 15:15 Open-floor discussions 1h5'
  - 16:20 Wrap-up of main ideas 40'
- 17:00 - 19:00
  - 17:00 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town / Ice breaker 2h0'

Tuesday, 2 August 2022

06:30 - 08:30

Core Themes:
• Subtropical wave dynamics and their role in convergence zones, monsoon fluctuations, and extremes.
• Thermodynamics of the subtropics.

06:30 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'

08:30 - 09:30 Eastern Hemisphere Plenaries

08:30 The dynamics of two synoptic weather systems affecting the South African domain 30'

Speaker: Thando NDARANA (University of Pretoria, South Africa)

09:00 Upper-tropospheric dynamics through a potential vorticity lens and its effect on rainfall extremes in the Southern Hemisphere 30'

Speaker:

Michael BARNES (School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australia)

09:45 - 11:00 Eastern Hemisphere Discussions

09:45 The April-May Southern Subtropical zonal wave-4 and rainfall variability in South Africa's Winter Rainfall Zone 10'

Speaker:	Willem CONRADIE (University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Material:	Slides

09:55 Investigating Rossby wave packets over South Africa 10'

Speaker: Tsholanang RAMMOPO (University of Pretoria, South Africa)
10:05 Open-floor discussions 45'
10:50 Wrap-up of main ideas 10'

11:00 - 13:00
- 11:00 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'

14:00 - 15:00 Western Hemisphere Plenaries

14:00 The influence of the subtropics on West African monsoon precipitation under increased levels of CO2 30'

Speaker: Harry MUTTON (University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, UK)

14:30 Precipitation in the subtropics: weather systems and climatic changes 30'

Speaker:	Andries-Jan DE VRIES (University of Lausanne, Switzerland)
Material:	Slides

15:15 - 17:00 Western Hemisphere Discussions

15:15 Precipitation changes in the Subtropical Comvergence Zones and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex: common driver or causal link? 10'

Speaker:	Julia MINDLIN (Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina)
Material:	Slides

15:25 Predictability of Long-lived of Rossby Wave Packets in S2S models during Southern Hemisphere Austral Summer 10'

Speaker:	Iago PEREZ (Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República Montevideo, Uruguay)
Material:	Slides

15:35 Open-floor discussions 45'
16:20 Wrap-up of main ideas 40'

17:00 - 19:00
- 17:00 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'

Wednesday, 3 August 2022

06:30 - 08:30

Core Themes:
• Synoptic systems and extreme regimes of the subtropics incl. tropical-extratropical cloudbands, cut-off lows, mid-latitude cyclones, subtropical cyclones and anticyclones, droughts and floods.
• Identification/analysis approaches.

06:30 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'

08:30 - 09:30 Eastern Hemisphere Plenaries
- 08:30 The South Atlantic Convergence Zone and mechanisms leading to extreme precipitation 30'
  
  Speaker: Leila CARVALHO (University of California, Santa Barbara, USA)
- 09:00 Rainfall decline in Australia 30'
  
  Speaker: Irina RUDEVA (Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)

09:45 - 11:00 Eastern Hemisphere Discussions

09:45 Linking subtropical moisture sources and extreme rainfall in southeast Australia 10'

Speaker:	Chiara HOLGATE (Australian National University, Australia)
Material:	Slides

09:55 Open-floor discussions 55'
10:50 Wrap-up of main ideas 10'

11:00 - 13:00
- 11:00 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'

14:00 - 15:00 Western Hemisphere Plenaries

14:00 Day Zero Drought 30'

Speaker:	Ross BLAMEY (University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Material:	Slides

14:30 Subtropical cyclones over South Atlantic 30'

Speaker: Michelle REBOITA (UNIFEI, Brazil)

15:15 - 17:00 Western Hemisphere Discussions

15:15 Understanding the El-Niño Southern Oscillation effect on Cut-off Lows as simulated in forced SST and fully coupled experiments 10'

Speaker:	Henri PINHEIRO (University of Sao Paulo, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG), Brazil)
Material:	Slides

15:25 Analysis of the SASH trends and the atmospheric conditions related to its extreme intensities 10'

Speaker:	Fernanda VASCONCELLOS (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Geociences Institute, Meteorology Department, Brazil)
Material:	Slides

15:35 The influence of different types of ENSO on subtropical South American precipitation 10'

Speaker: Renata G TEDESCHI (Instituto Tecnologico Vale, Brazil)
15:45 Open-floor discussions 35'
16:20 Wrap-up of main ideas 40'

17:00 - 19:00
- 17:00 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'

Thursday, 4 August 2022

06:30 - 08:30

Core Themes:
• Surface-atmosphere (land and ocean) interactions.
• Model (S2S to climate) representation of subtropical processes/Predictability and prediction systems for the subtropics.

06:30 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'

08:30 - 09:30 Eastern Hemisphere Plenaries

08:30 A sea level perspective about the South Pacific Convergence Zone 30'

Speaker:

Matthew WIDLANSKY (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA)

09:00 The use of synoptic cloud band event analysis to identify biases in climate simulations 30'

Speaker:	Marcia ZILLI (University of Oxford, UK)
Material:	Slides

09:40 - 11:00 Eastern Hemisphere Discussions
- 09:45 Projected changes in subtropical cyclones and anticyclones 10'
  
  Speaker: Acacia PEPLER (Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)
- 09:55 Open-floor discussions 55'
- 10:50 Wrap-up of main ideas 10'
11:00 - 13:00
- 11:00 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'

14:00 - 15:00 Western Hemisphere Plenaries

14:00 Air-sea interactions and marine heatwaves 30'

Speaker: Regina RODRIGUES (Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil)

14:30 Extreme precipitation characteristics driven by atmosphere-oceanic modes in the Uruguay River Basin based on Convective-Permitting Model simulations 30'

Speaker:	Kwok CHUN (University of the West of England, UK), Luminita DANAILA (Universite' de Rouen, Faculte' de Sciences, France), Yasemin EZBER (Istanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Climate and Marine Sciences, Turkey)
Material:	Slides

15:15 - 17:00 Western Hemisphere Discussions

15:15 Challenges in modelling the subtropics: A Case Study in Southern Africa 10'

Speaker: Callum MUNDAY (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK)
15:25 The distinct influence of two Madden-Julian's trajectory classes on the South American Dipole 10'

Speaker: Cesar Nicolas DIAZ NEGRIN (Physics Institute, Science School, Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay)

15:35 Representation of the Summer Monsoon in South America by CMIP6 Models 10'

Speaker:

Anna Carolina BAZZANELA (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), Wanderson LUIZ-SILVA (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

15:45 Open-floor discussions 35'
16:20 Wrap-up of main ideas 40'

17:00 - 19:00
- 17:00 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 2h0'

Friday, 5 August 2022

08:30 - 10:30 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town

Core Themes:
• Model (S2S to climate) representation of subtropical processes/Predictability and prediction systems for the subtropics. 
• Outlook for climate services in the subtropics.

08:30 Poster Session 1 2h0'

Yitea GETAHUN 
Sakia Shabnam KADER 
Maria Chara KARYPIDOU 
Sunny KUMAR 
Binita PATHAK 
Gobishankar SATHIYAMOHAN 
Sanket TELI  
Yasmin ZAHAN

Material:

Posters

11:00 - 13:00

11:00 Eastern Hemisphere plenary talk: Climate services in southern Africa, in the context of a warmer world 30'

Speaker:

Francois ENGELBRECHT (Climate Studies and Modelling, Natural Resources and the Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa)

11:30 Open-floor discussions 50'
12:20 Wrap-up of main ideas 10'
12:30 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town 30'

14:00 - 15:00 Western Hemisphere Plenaries

14:00 Research efforts targeting the development of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction services 30'

Speaker: Caio COELHO (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil)

14:30 Characterization of dry spells in Southeastern Brazil during the monsoon season 30'

Speaker:	Christopher CUNNINGHAM (Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, Brazil)
Material:	Slides

15:15 - 17:00 Western Hemisphere Discussions
- 15:15 Climate variability in the Paraguay Basin 10'
  
  Speaker: Camila PRUDENTE (Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina)
- 15:25 Open-floor discussions 55'
- 16:20 Wrap-up of main ideas 40'

17:00 - 19:00 Collaborative hub @ Gather.Town

17:00 Poster Session 2 2h0'

Joe Adabouk AMOOLI 
Theo CARR 
Jamyle DA SILVA 
Juan DE SOUZA 
Hanibal Lemma GEBREKIDAN
Youcef KHAMALLAH
Tatyane SOUSA
Innocent MASUKWEDZA
Catharine DE CALDAS

Material:

Posters