smr1150/Announcement
Fifth Workshop on Non-Linear Dynamics
and Earthquake Prediction
4 - 22 October 1999
Miramare - Trieste, Italy
The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, in
collaboration with the Department of Earth Sciences of the University of
Trieste, will organize the Fifth Workshop on Non-Linear Dynamics and
Earthquake Prediction. The Workshop will take place from 4 to 22 October
1999 and will be directed by Professors V.I.Keilis-Borok (International
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics,
Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia) and G.F.Panza (Department of
the Earth Sciences, University of Trieste/ ICTP, Italy). The Workshop is
co-sponsored by the European Commission.
PURPOSE AND NATURE
The Workshop is dedicated to the application of the methods of
non-linear dynamics to understand the instability of the Earth's
lithosphere. Earthquake prediction is an intrinsic part of the problem,
pivotal for understanding dynamics of lithosphere as well as for reduction
of disasters. Specifically, the Workshop will focus on the interface
between analysis of geophysical observations and mathematical models of
chaotic systems. Among practical aspects, attention will be given to
accuracy and statistical significance of prediction methods, their rate of
errors, and to interaction with disaster management authorities. The
Workshop, while being the fifth one dedicated to this field, will encompass
essentially new elements i.e. more observable fields, including slow
movements (e.g. GPS) and migration of fluids; different types of
criticality which may alternate with time; combination of "universal"
models (like cellular automata), and models reflecting geometry of the
tectonic faults systems; applications to other critical phenomena besides
earthquakes. Particular attention will be paid to planning future research
for participants. Leading experts in geosciences and non-linear dynamics
will be among the lecturers.
The following developments in science and technology form the basis
for the modeling of lithosphere dynamics and therefore, for the
understanding and prediction of earthquakes:
- Non-linear dynamics with its concept of chaos, self-organization,
and phase transitions, as a highly useful tool for the study of short-term
dynamics of lithosphere, including seismicity;
- A variety of models recently developed, including the lattice-type
("universal") models, as well as, models reflecting fault-geometry and
observations on seismicity and other relevant fields;
- Concept of the "geometric incompatibility" that measures
instability of a tectonic blocks-and-faults system and links together the
structure of the lithosphere, its dynamics (interaction with mantle
included), the movements in a broad velocity range (from seismicity to
creep to GPS to neotectonics), stress and strain fields, migration of
fluids in a fault system, and accordingly, geoelectric fields and
geochemistry;
- Pattern recognition for small samples, developed for
phenomenological analysis of highly complex data ;
- Powerful and inexpensive personal computers and workstations, that
allow modelling of 3D dynamics and seismicity for complex crustal
blocks-and-faults structures;
- Relevant interactive software that gives a simple and user-friendly
access to the application of the methods developed.
The Workshop will be the continuation of the eight previous
meetings organized by the Trieste Science Centres (Italy) in 1983, 1988,
1991, 1993, 1995, 1997, CERESIS (Lima, Peru, 1986), and IDEA (Caracas,
Venezuela, 1991).
II. PROGRAMME
The program of lectures and practical exercises will cover the
following topics:
LITHOSPHERE AS A NON-LINEAR DISSIPATIVE SYSTEM
Lectures:
- Chaos and self-organization in non-linear dissipative systems;
Symptoms of instability; Scaling, self-similarity, fractality
- Numerical models of seismicity: lattice-type ("universal") models
and models of lithosphere block structure dynamics; Geometric
incompatibility in blocks-and-faults systems; Physical background of
major regularities in earthquake occurrence, as inferred from synthetic
and real earthquake sequences
Practical exercises:
- Models; Analysis of earthquake sequences; Use of Global Data Banks
for regional studies; Software
- 2 -
PATTERN RECOGNITION
Lectures: Exploratory data analysis; Algorithms; Software;
Numerical tests
Practical exercises: Data analysis; Software
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
Lectures:
- Premonitory phenomena in models and reality; Integration of data
in different fields
- Algorithms of prediction; Evaluation of reliability of prediction
methods, error diagrams;
Interaction with practical decision-making
Practical exercises:
- Diagnosis of premonitory phenomena; Reliability of prediction;
Software
Scientists and students from all countries that are members of the
UN, UNESCO, or IAEA can attend the Workshop. The main purpose of the
Centre is to help researchers from developing countries through a programme
of training activities within a framework of international co-operation.
However, students and post-doctoral scientists from developed countries are
also welcome to attend, and may be supported thanks to the contribution
from the European Commission under the Training and Mobility Researchers
Programme. As the Workshop will be conducted in English, participants
should have an adequate working knowledge of that language. A degree in
Physics, Mathematics, Geophysics (theoretical or computational), Computer
Science and/or similar disciplines is required.
As a rule, travel and subsistence expenses of the participants
should be covered by the home institutions. Some funds will also be
available for participants from developed countries under the EC. Such
financial support is available only to those who attend the entire
activity. As scarcity of funds allows travel to be granted only in a few
exceptional cases, every effort should be made by candidates to secure
support for their fares (or at least half fare) from their home country.
For logistic reasons, connected with the number of Personal Computers
available, the total number of participants in the Workshop is limited.
There is no registration fee for attending the Workshop.
Those wishing to participate should complete and return the request
for participation form, to be found at the back of Bulletin No. 1, (also
obtainable via e-mail: smr1150@ictp.trieste.it, by typing on the subject
line: get index, or via WWW server: http://www.ictp.trieste.it/), before
28 May 1999 to the following address:
the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Fifth Workshop on Non-Linear Dynamics
and Earthquake Prediction
P.O. Box 586,
I-34100 Trieste, Italy
________________________________________________________________________________
UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL SCIENTIFIC AND CULTURAL ORGANIZATION
and
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS
P.O. Box 586 Telephone: (0-40) 2240111
I-34100 Trieste Telex: 460392 ICTP I
Italy Telefax: (0-40) 224163
REQUEST FOR PARTICIPATION *)
Fifth Workshop on
Non-Linear Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction
(4 - 22 October 1999)
E-mail address: smr1150@ictp.trieste.it
________________________________________________________________________________
INSTRUCTIONS
Each question must be answered clearly and completely. A recent
photograph of
Type or print in ink.If more space is required,attach the candidate should
additional pages. The request for participation form be attached here,
should be forwarded to the International Centre for signed legibly on the
Theoretical Physics, Fifth Workshop on Non-Linear reverse.
Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction, P.O.B. 586,
I-34100,Trieste, Italy, to arrive before 28 May 1999.
________________________________________________________________________________
PERSONAL DATA
________________________________________________________________________________
For women (if applicable)
Surname: Maiden name: First name: Middle name(s): Sex:
________________________________________________________________________________
Place of birth (City and Country): Present nationality: Date of
birth
Year-Month-Day:
________________________________________________________________________________
Full name and address of permanent Institution: Tel. No.:
Cable :
Telex :
Telefax :
E-mail :
________________________________________________________________________________
Full name and address of present Institution (if different from permanent):
Tel. No.:
Cable :
Telex :
Telefax :
until (date) : E-mail :
________________________________________________________________________________
Home address: Tel. No.:
________________________________________________________________________________
Mailing address - please indicate whether: Permanent address _____ or
Present address _____
________________________________________________________________________________
Name and address of person to notify in case of emergency - Relationship:
________________________________________________________________________________
*)PLEASE NOTE that no request will be processed unless the permanent
address (and present address, if different) is clearly indicated.
EDUCATION (higher degrees)
University or equivalent Years attended Degrees
Name and place From To
________________________________________________________________________________
Seminars, summer schools, conferences or research
Name and place Year
________________________________________________________________________________
SCIENTIFIC EMPLOYMENT AND ACADEMIC RESPONSIBILITY
Research Institution or University Period of duty Academic
Name and place From To
responsibilities
Present employment and duties:
________________________________________________________________________________
Have you participated in past ICTP activities: Yes _____ No _____
If yes, which?
Mention briefly your previous research experience, and explain your reasons
for wishing to participate in this activity:
Kindly supply (strictly within indicated lengths) a keyword description of your
current scientific activities as follows:
1) Area of research (e.g. Non-Linear Dynamics)
|___________________________________________|
(no more that 15 letters)
2) Specific topic of interest (e.g.Earthquake Prediction)
|_________________________________________________________|
(no more than 30 letters
________________________________________________________________________________
Present field of interest (please indicate on the list below - up to 5
fields - underlining primary field)
10. PHYSICS OF CONDENSED MATTER 60. PHYSICS TEACHING
11. Solid State Physics 61. English
12. Atomic and Molecular Physics 62. French
13. Materials Science 63. Spanish
14. Surfaces and Interfaces 64. Arab
15. Statistical Physics
16. Computational Physics in
Condensed Matter 80. MISCELLANEOUS
20. PHYSICS OF HIGH AND 81. Others
INTERMEDIATE ENERGIES 82. Digital Communications
and Computer Networking
21. High Energy and Particle Physics
22. Relativity, Cosmology & Astrophysics 90. PHYSICS OF THE LIVING STATE
23. Plasma Physics
24 Nuclear Physics 91. Neurophysics
92. Biophysics
30. MATHEMATICS 93. Medical Physics
31. Applicable Mathematics including: AO. APPLIED PHYSICS
- Mathematical Ecology,
- System Analysis, A1. Physics in Industry
- Mathematical Economy A2. Microelectronics
- Mathematics in Industry A3. Fibre Optics for
33 Algebra Communications
34. Geometry A4. Instrumentation
35. Topology A5. Synchrotron Radiation
36. Differential Equations A6. Non-destructive
Evaluation
37. Analysis A7. Lasers
38. Mathematical Physics AA. Applied Superconductivity
B1. SPACE PHYSICS
40. PHYSICS AND ENERGY
41. Physics of Nuclear Reactors
42. Physics of Controlled Fusion
43. Non-Conventional Energy
(Solar, Wind and others)
50. PHYSICS OF THE ENVIRONMENT
51. Solid Earth Geophysics
52. Soil Physics
53. Climatology and Meteorology
54. Physics of the Oceans
55. Physics of Desertification
56. Physics of the Atmosphere, Troposphere
Magnetosphere, Aeronomy
57. Environmental Monitoring and Remote
Sensing
List your scientific publications including books and articles (authors,
title, Journal) in the period 1990-1997.:
________________________________________________________________________________
Foreseen employment upon return to home country after the activity:
In order to play a significant role in the development of Third World
countries, it is essential that scientists in developing countries, as a
community, be engaged not only in their individual research and teaching at
the University, but also in the following two activities:
a) In enhancing Physics and Mathematics education at the secondary,
polytechnical and college levels.
b) If possible, paying attention to research work of problems in Physics and
Mathematics related to the specific needs of the developing countries.
For example, geophysical problems involving climatic environmental,
atmospheric, ionospheric and soil studies, or problems of physics of local
materials, or communications.
Therefore, we should appreciate your kindly replying to the following
questions:
a) Describe, if appropriate, the role you are playing in enhancing Physics and
Mathematics teaching in your country at all levels besides University
level.
b) Are you involved in research activities of problems in Physics and
Mathematics related to specific needs of your country?
Kindly state any positions you hold in the scientific administration of
your Institution or any of the national scientific Institutions.
If appropriate, it would be of assistance to the Selection Committee if
this request for participation were accompanied by a letter of
recommendation.
________________________________________________________________________________
Indicate below your proficiency in the English language
Reading: Good Writing: Good Speaking: Good
Average Average Average
Poor Poor Poor
________________________________________________________________________________
APPLICABLE ONLY FOR CANDIDATES FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (Important:
Please note that very few travel grants are available, and preference
in selecting participants will be given to eligible candidates who
can guarantee travel coverage by own local sources).
Please tick as appropriate:
- I can definitely find complete travel funds from local sources
or
- I can definitely find half my travel funds from local sources
I am requesting financial support from the ICTP for:
- Half travel - Full travel - Living allowance
I am NOT requesting financial support from the ICTP
I certify that if granted funds for my travel
I will attend the whole activity
Signature ___________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________
I certify that the statements made by me above are true and complete. If
accepted, I undertake to refrain from engaging in any political or other
activities which would reflect unfavourably on the international status of
the Centre. I understand that any breach of this undertaking may result in
the termination of the arrangements relating to my visit at the Centre.
_________________________________________ ______________________________
Signature of candidate Date
5th Workshop on
Non-Linear Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction
2 - 22 October 1999
Supplementary Information
(to be attached to the "Request for Participation" form)
The information requested here is not a determining factor in
selecting participants, but can help us to organize the computer exercises.
The ICTP computing facilities include a Main CONVEX C-210 system, a few SUN
386i workstations and many IBM compatible PCs. The computer exercises
during the Workshop will be given on IBM compatible PCs.
- What kind of computer are you currently using (including PCs)?
- For which purpose (research, data management, writing...)?
- What kind of programming language?
- Is your programming ability:
excellent good sufficient
insufficient
- Can you present any software of particular interest to this
course (if "yes" please specify)?
- What kind of floppy-disk drives for IBM compatible PCs are
available at your Institution?
51/4 HD 1.2M 51/4 DD 360K 31/2 HD 1.4M 31/2 DD 720K
- Comments/proposals/suggestions:
____________________________________________________________________
Communications by Participants.
- Would you like to present papers/communications?
Yes please specify title(s) No
- Would you like to present poster (s)? Yes please specify title(s) No