Scientific Calendar Event



Go to day
  • Monday, 24 March 2003
    • 08:30 - 10:00 Registration
      Participants arriving later should register with the secretary in room 136, Main Building, 1st floor, near the library.
      Location: Main Building, Lobby
      • 08:30 Registration 1h30'
    • 10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break
      • 10:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Opening Remarks - Introduction to PROMISE
      • 10:30 Opening Remarks - Introduction to PROMISE 30'
        Speaker: J. SLINGO (C.G.A.M., University of Reading, U.K.)
    • 11:00 - 11:40 Climate variability, crop yield and food provision
      • 11:00 Climate variability, crop yield and food provision 40'
        Speaker: J. INGRAM (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, U.K.)
    • 11:40 - 12:20 Regional extensions of CFAB: Climate forecasting applications in South Asia (CFASA)
      • 11:40 Regional extensions of CFAB: Climate forecasting applications in South Asia (CFASA) 40'
        Speaker: J. SLINGO (for P. Webster) (C.G.A.M., University of Reading, U.K.)
    • 12:20 - 14:00 Lunch Break
      • 12:20 Lunch Break 1h40'
    • 14:00 - 14:40 Ocean-atmosphere variability in the Indian Ocean: ENSO, Monsoon, Coupled Internal Dynamics
      • 14:00 Ocean-atmosphere variability in the Indian Ocean: ENSO, Monsoon, Coupled Internal Dynamics 40'
        Speaker: J. SHUKLA (COLA / IGES, Maryland, U.S.A.)
    • 14:40 - 14:55 Indian Monsoon, Indian Ocean Dipoles and ENSO
      • 14:40 Indian Monsoon, Indian Ocean Dipoles and ENSO 15'
        Speaker: P. Terray (LOYDC / Universite' Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France)
    • 14:55 - 15:10 Role of Indian Ocean SST forcing on the interannual variability of the South Asian Monsoon
      • 14:55 Role of Indian Ocean SST forcing on the interannual variability of the South Asian Monsoon 15'
        Speaker: K. Raghavan (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India)
    • 15:10 - 15:25 Simulation of Monsoon rainfall variability in the Tropical Atlantic region
      • 15:10 Simulation of Monsoon rainfall variability in the Tropical Atlantic region 15'
        Speaker: J. Bader (Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany)
    • 15:25 - 15:55 Coffee Break
      • 15:25 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:05 - 16:35 Improved skill of ENSO coupled model probability forecasts by Baysean combination with empirical forecasts
      • 16:05 Improved skill of ENSO coupled model probability forecasts by Baysean combination with empirical forecasts 30'
        Speaker: D. STEPHENSON (Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading, U.K.)
    • 16:35 - 16:50 The variability of seasonality
      • 16:35 The variability of seasonality 15'
        Speaker: S. Pezzuli (C.G.A.M., University of Reading, U.K.)
    • 16:50 - 17:05 Potential predictability of Boreal Summer Monsoon precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction
      • 16:50 Potential predictability of Boreal Summer Monsoon precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction 15'
        Speaker: J.-Y. Lee (Seoul National University, School of Environmental & Earth Science, Rep. of Korea)
    • 17:05 - 17:20 Using El Nino/La Nina forecasting to predict Indonesian wet season
      • 17:05 Using El Nino/La Nina forecasting to predict Indonesian wet season 15'
        Speaker: Z. Dupe (Bandung Institute of Technology, Climatology Lab, Indonesia)
  • Tuesday, 25 March 2003
    • 09:00 - 09:40 Empirical approach to seasonal forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: problems and prospects
      • 09:00 Empirical approach to seasonal forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: problems and prospects 40'
        Speaker: Rupakumar KOLLI (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India)
    • 09:40 - 09:55 Anomaly circulation patterns for active and poor southwest Monsoon seasons over different regions of India
      • 09:40 Anomaly circulation patterns for active and poor southwest Monsoon seasons over different regions of India 15'
        Speaker: V.N. Chennu (Andhra University, Dept. Meteorology-Oceanography, Visakhapatnam, India)
    • 09:55 - 10:10 Use of the tendency of simultaneous impact of NAO and SO for the prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall
      • 09:55 Use of the tendency of simultaneous impact of NAO and SO for the prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall 15'
        Speaker: S.B. Kakade (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India)
    • 10:10 - 10:25 Interannual variability of Northeast Monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India: Teleconnections and long range prediction
      • 10:10 Interannual variability of Northeast Monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India: Teleconnections and long range prediction 15'
        Speaker: P. Kumar (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India)
    • 10:25 - 10:40 The river routing scheme of ORCHIDEE and it's interactions with climates
      • 10:25 The river routing scheme of ORCHIDEE and it's interactions with climates 15'
        Speaker: J. Polcher (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique du CNRS, Paris, France)
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 11:25 Various time-scale variation of meteorological elements in Bangladesh
      • 11:10 Various time-scale variation of meteorological elements in Bangladesh 15'
        Speaker: T. Hayashi (Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Japan)
    • 11:25 - 11:55 The West African Monsoon dynamics: Intra-seasonal variability
      • 11:25 The West African Monsoon dynamics: Intra-seasonal variability 30'
        Speaker: S. JANICOT (Meteo-France, Laboratoire de la Meteorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France)
    • 11:55 - 12:10 The influence of Indian Ocean SST on tropical East African rainfall: Insights from observations and general circulation models
      • 11:55 The influence of Indian Ocean SST on tropical East African rainfall: Insights from observations and general circulation models 15'
        Speaker: E. Black (C.G.A.M., University of Reading, U.K.)
    • 12:10 - 12:25 CRC contribution to the West African Monsoon variability and predictability study in PROMISE EU program framework
      • 12:10 CRC contribution to the West African Monsoon variability and predictability study in PROMISE EU program framework 15'
        Speaker: N. Philippon (Universite' de Bourgogne, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Dijon, France)
    • 12:25 - 12:40 Teleconnection of the West African Monsoon to the Mediterranean summer climate: statistical and dynamical analysis
      • 12:25 Teleconnection of the West African Monsoon to the Mediterranean summer climate: statistical and dynamical analysis 15'
        Speaker: S. Meneguzzo (Institute for Biometeorology, National Research Council, Florence, Italy)
    • 12:40 - 14:00 Lunch Break
      • 12:40 Lunch Break 1h20'
    • 14:00 - 14:15 A climate model's trend in Sahel rainfall
      • 14:00 A climate model's trend in Sahel rainfall 15'
        Speaker: A. Giannini (NCAR, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Colorado, U.S.A.)
    • 14:15 - 14:30 Predominant regional circulation patterns during wetter than normal rainfall season in southern Africa
      • 14:15 Predominant regional circulation patterns during wetter than normal rainfall season in southern Africa 15'
        Speaker: B. Garanganga (Drought Monitoring Centre, Dept. of Meteorological Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe)
    • 14:30 - 14:45 New modelling techniques in the analysis of tropical climate data
      • 14:30 New modelling techniques in the analysis of tropical climate data 15'
        Speaker: W. Tych (University of Lancaster, Dept. Environmental Science, U.K.)
    • 14:45 - 15:00 The rainfall in the pre-monsoon over the Indochina peninsula
      • 14:45 The rainfall in the pre-monsoon over the Indochina peninsula 15'
        Speaker: M. Kiguchi (University of Tokyo, Dept. of Earth and Planetary Science, Japan)
    • 15:00 - 15:15 Climatic anomalies of Iran's weather duriing El Nino 1997-98
      • 15:00 Climatic anomalies of Iran's weather duriing El Nino 1997-98 15'
        Speaker: L. Mirafzal (University of Tehran, Institute of Geophysics, Iran)
    • 15:15 - 15:30 Prediction of rainfall in two agro ecological zones in Ghana
      • 15:15 Prediction of rainfall in two agro ecological zones in Ghana 15'
        Speaker: M.M. Tanu (Meteorological Services Department, Accra, Ghana)
    • 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee Break
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:00 - 16:30 Understanding the systematic errors of GCMs in tropical regions
      • 16:00 Understanding the systematic errors of GCMs in tropical regions 30'
        Speaker: F. MOLTENI (ICTP, Trieste, Italy)
    • 16:30 - 16:45 Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the unified model
      • 16:30 Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the unified model 15'
        Speaker: G. Martin (U.K. Met Office, Bracknell, U.K.)
    • 16:45 - 17:00 Validating PRECIS with ECMWF reanalysis data over China
      • 16:45 Validating PRECIS with ECMWF reanalysis data over China 15'
        Speaker: Y. Xu (Agrometeorology Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, P.R. China)
    • 17:00 - 17:15 The characteristics of daily rainfall events during the the Indian Summer Monsoon simulated in a global time-slice experiment, Part I
      • 17:00 The characteristics of daily rainfall events during the the Indian Summer Monsoon simulated in a global time-slice experiment, Part I 15'
        Speaker: W.H. May (Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark)
  • Wednesday, 26 March 2003
    • 09:00 - 09:30 Response of the Monsoon climates to enhanced greenhouse effect
      • 09:00 Response of the Monsoon climates to enhanced greenhouse effect 30'
        Speaker: H. DOUVILLE (Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse, France)
    • 09:30 - 09:45 The characteristics of daily rainfall events during the the Indian Summer Monsoon simulated in a global time-slice experiment, Part II
      • 09:30 The characteristics of daily rainfall events during the the Indian Summer Monsoon simulated in a global time-slice experiment, Part II 15'
        Speaker: W.H. May (Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark)
    • 09:45 - 10:15 The impact of a realistic vegetation annual cycle on climate and hydrology
      • 09:45 The impact of a realistic vegetation annual cycle on climate and hydrology 30'
        Speaker: D. LAWRENCE (C.G.A.M., University of Reading, U.K.)
    • 10:15 - 10:30 A modeling study of the climatic importance of vegetation in the tropics: Sensitivity to the specification of soil characteristics
      • 10:15 A modeling study of the climatic importance of vegetation in the tropics: Sensitivity to the specification of soil characteristics 15'
        Speaker: T.M. Osborne (University of Reading, Dept. of Meteorology, U.K.)
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:15 Global wind patterns and associated snow anomalies over Eurasia: predictability and influence on large scale monsoon circulation
      • 11:00 Global wind patterns and associated snow anomalies over Eurasia: predictability and influence on large scale monsoon circulation 15'
        Speaker: S. Corti (Instituto per le Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (ISAC/CNR), Bologna, Italy)
    • 11:15 - 11:30 Soil erosion under land use change from two catchments in Laos and Thailand
      • 11:15 Soil erosion under land use change from two catchments in Laos and Thailand 15'
        Speaker: J.P. Briquet (IWMI SEA, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand)
    • 11:30 - 12:00 Land surface feedbacks on rainfall in semi-arid Africa
      • 11:30 Land surface feedbacks on rainfall in semi-arid Africa 30'
        Speaker: C. TAYLOR (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, U.K.)
    • 12:00 - 12:15 Sensitivity experiments with locally modified land surface
      • 12:00 Sensitivity experiments with locally modified land surface 15'
        Speaker: C. Brankovic (Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia)
    • 12:15 - 14:00 Lunch Break
      • 12:15 Lunch Break 1h45'
    • 14:00 - 14:30 Impact of anthropogenic vegetation changes on the African climate in a B2 scenario for 2050
      • 14:00 Impact of anthropogenic vegetation changes on the African climate in a B2 scenario for 2050 30'
        Speaker: J.-F. ROYER (Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse, France)
    • 14:30 - 15:10 Identification of land-use change impacts on tropical hydrological processes
      • 14:30 Identification of land-use change impacts on tropical hydrological processes 40'
        Speaker: N. CHAPPELL (University of Lancaster, Dept. of Environmental Sciences, U.K.)
    • 15:10 - 15:25 Review and update of the water balance models for Lake Victoria
      • 15:10 Review and update of the water balance models for Lake Victoria 15'
        Speaker: R.A. Ojala (Kenya Meteorological Department, Institute for Meteorological Training & Research, Nairobi, Kenya)
    • 15:25 - 15:55 Coffee Break
      • 15:25 Coffee Break 30'
    • 15:55 - 16:15 The impact of climate change on water resources – Problems and prospects for a more realistic assessment
      • 15:55 The impact of climate change on water resources – Problems and prospects for a more realistic assessment 20'
        Speaker: J. MEIGH (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, U.K.)
    • 16:15 - 16:30 Water resources impact of climate and land-use change in West Africa
      • 16:15 Water resources impact of climate and land-use change in West Africa 15'
        Speaker: S. Folwell (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, U.K.)
    • 16:30 - 17:00 Hydrological balance and its variation over Monsoon areas
      • 16:30 Hydrological balance and its variation over Monsoon areas 30'
        Speaker: K. LAVAL (C.N.R.S., Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France)
    • 17:00 - 17:15 Impact of irrigation over India on the land-surface fluxes
      • 17:00 Impact of irrigation over India on the land-surface fluxes 15'
        Speaker: P.C.L. De Rosnay (Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphere, CESBIO/CNRS, Toulouse, France)
  • Thursday, 27 March 2003
    • 09:00 - 09:15 Effect of rainfall variability on surface water resources: A case study from semi-arid Zimbabwe
      • 09:00 Effect of rainfall variability on surface water resources: A case study from semi-arid Zimbabwe 15'
        Speaker: F.T. Mugabe (Midlands State University, Dept. of Land & Water Resources Management, Gweru, Zimbabwe)
    • 09:15 - 09:30 Management of water resources for rainfed farming of soybean crop in central India
      • 09:15 Management of water resources for rainfed farming of soybean crop in central India 15'
        Speaker: R. Kumar (Jawaharlal Nehru University, School of Environmental Sciences, New Delhi, India)
    • 09:30 - 09:45 Impact of climate change on hydrology, agriculture and natural vegetation: A case study in an irrigation sub-division Buchiana, Punjab, Pakistan
      • 09:30 Impact of climate change on hydrology, agriculture and natural vegetation: A case study in an irrigation sub-division Buchiana, Punjab, Pakistan 15'
        Speaker: A. Hamid Sheikh (International Water Management Institute, Lahore, Pakistan)
    • 09:45 - 10:25 Infectious disease and monsoon environments: Working towards forecasting epidemics in Africa
      • 09:45 Infectious disease and monsoon environments: Working towards forecasting epidemics in Africa 40'
        Speaker: A. MORSE (University of Liverpool, Dept. of Geography, U.K.)
    • 10:25 - 10:40 Relationship between seasonal anomalies of meteorological elements and diarrheal disease in Bangladesh
      • 10:25 Relationship between seasonal anomalies of meteorological elements and diarrheal disease in Bangladesh 15'
        Speaker: Y. Wagatsuma (Centre for Health & Population Res., Bangladesh / Johns Hopkins Univ., U.S.A.)
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 11:25 Indian Climate Research Programme
      • 11:10 Indian Climate Research Programme 15'
        Speaker: S. Rao Popuri (Ministry of Science & Technology, Earth System Science Div., New Delhi, India)
    • 11:25 - 11:40 AMMA: An international research project and field campaign
      • 11:25 AMMA: An international research project and field campaign 15'
        Speaker: S. Janicot (Meteo-France, Laboratoire de la Meteorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France)
    • 11:40 - 11:55 DEMETER: A multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual forecasting
      • 11:40 DEMETER: A multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual forecasting 15'
        Speaker: F.J. Doblas-Reyes (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U.K.)
    • 11:55 - 13:30 Lunch Break
      • 11:55 Lunch Break 1h35'
    • 13:30 - 14:10 The uncertainty due to spatial scale of climate scenarios in integrated assessments: An example from U.S. Agriculture
      • 13:30 The uncertainty due to spatial scale of climate scenarios in integrated assessments: An example from U.S. Agriculture 40'
        Speaker: L. MEARNS (NCAR, Environmental & Societal Impacts Group, Colorado, U.S.A.)
    • 14:10 - 14:25 Assessing the vulnerability of Indonesian rice-based cropping system to climate variability
      • 14:10 Assessing the vulnerability of Indonesian rice-based cropping system to climate variability 15'
        Speaker: R. Boer (Bogor Agricultural University, Dept. Geophysics & Meteorology, Indonesia)
    • 14:25 - 14:40 Economic impact assessment of Agrometeorological Advisory Service on agriculture in India
      • 14:25 Economic impact assessment of Agrometeorological Advisory Service on agriculture in India 15'
        Speaker: K.K. Singh (National Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting, New Delhi, India)
    • 14:40 - 14:55 Analysis of global precipitation patterns with regard to annual cycle and anomalies
      • 14:40 Analysis of global precipitation patterns with regard to annual cycle and anomalies 15'
        Speaker: B. Rudolf (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany)
    • 14:55 - 15:10 Oceanographic data and information management system for monsoon study for Indian Ocean
      • 14:55 Oceanographic data and information management system for monsoon study for Indian Ocean 15'
        Speaker: V. Reddy Gudimetla (National Institute of Oceanography, Indian Oceanographic Data Centre, Goa, India)
    • 15:10 - 15:40 Coffee Break
      • 15:10 Coffee Break 30'
    • 15:40 - 16:10 DATA ARCHIVE DEMONSTRATION
      • 15:40 DATA ARCHIVE DEMONSTRATION 30'
        Speaker: F. MOLTENI
    • 16:10 - 17:30 Practical session - data archive
      Location: Computer Lab. (M)
      • 16:10 Practical session - data archive 1h20'
  • Friday, 28 March 2003
    • 09:00 - 09:30 From climate to crop: Conceptual and technical problems
      • 09:00 From climate to crop: Conceptual and technical problems 30'
        Speaker: M. DINGKUHN (Centre de Cooperation Intl. en Recherche Agronomique pour le Dev. (CIRAD), Montpellier, France)
    • 09:30 - 09:45 Analysis of the SARRAH crop model's sensitivity to scale: from plot to degree-size pixel
      • 09:30 Analysis of the SARRAH crop model's sensitivity to scale: from plot to degree-size pixel 15'
        Speaker: C. Baron (for B. Sarr) (Centre de Cooperation Intl. en Recherche Agronomique pour le Dev. (CIRAD), Montpellier, France)
    • 09:45 - 10:00 SARRA vs. SARRAH: From a simple crop water balance model to a simple crop water and carbon balance model in water limited environments
      • 09:45 SARRA vs. SARRAH: From a simple crop water balance model to a simple crop water and carbon balance model in water limited environments 15'
        Speaker: C. Baron (Centre de Cooperation Intl. en Recherche Agronomique pour le Dev. (CIRAD), Montpellier, France)
    • 10:00 - 10:15 The West African monsoon dynamics: Agricultural impacts in Sahelian area
      • 10:00 The West African monsoon dynamics: Agricultural impacts in Sahelian area 15'
        Speaker: B. Sultan (Meteo-France, Laboratoire de la Meteorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France)
    • 10:15 - 10:30 A methodological note on crop yield forecasting in the Sahel
      • 10:15 A methodological note on crop yield forecasting in the Sahel 15'
        Speaker: S. Traore (Centre Regional AGRHYMET, Niamey, Niger)
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Crop modelling for interface with general circulation models
      • 11:00 Crop modelling for interface with general circulation models 30'
        Speaker: A. CHALLINOR (C.G.A.M., University of Reading, U.K.)
    • 11:30 - 11:45 Impact assessment of climate change on rice crop in India: Uncertainties due to scenarios and crop models
      • 11:30 Impact assessment of climate change on rice crop in India: Uncertainties due to scenarios and crop models 15'
        Speaker: R. Kumar Mall (Central Ground Board, Ministry of Water Resources, New Delhi, India)
    • 11:45 - 12:00 The climatic impacts on Indian agriculture
      • 11:45 The climatic impacts on Indian agriculture 15'
        Speaker: K. Kumar Kanikicharla (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India)
    • 12:00 - 12:15 Impact of change in mean temperature and variability on annual crops
      • 12:00 Impact of change in mean temperature and variability on annual crops 15'
        Speaker: T. Wheeler (University of Reading, Dept. of Agriculture, U.K.)
    • 12:15 - 12:30 Impact of ENSO on Indian food grain and oilseed production
      • 12:15 Impact of ENSO on Indian food grain and oilseed production 15'
        Speaker: S. Ramasamy (Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, India)
    • 12:30 - 12:45 Coping with seasonal climate variability in crop production: Applying systems research tools in agribusiness enterprise
      • 12:30 Coping with seasonal climate variability in crop production: Applying systems research tools in agribusiness enterprise 15'
        Speaker: F.P. Lansigan (INSTAT, Univ. of the Philippines Los Banos, Laguna, Phillipines)
    • 12:45 - 13:00 Models for predicting water use and crop yields in Cuba
      • 12:45 Models for predicting water use and crop yields in Cuba 15'
        Speaker: M.E. Ruiz (Universidad Agraria de La Habana, Cuba)
    • 13:00 - 13:15 CLOSING REMARKS
      • 13:00 CLOSING REMARKS 15'
        Speaker: J. Slingo, F. Molteni