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Eighth Workshop on Non-linear Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction | (smr 1676)
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  • Monday, 3 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:15 OPENING
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 OPENING 15'
        Speaker: Prof. K.R. Sreenivasan (The Abdus Salam ICTP)
    • 09:15 - 09:25 OPENING
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:15 OPENING 10'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Keilis-Borok (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
    • 09:25 - 09:35 OPENING
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:25 OPENING 10'
        Speaker: Prof. G.F. Panza (University of Trieste; The Abdus Salam ICTP)
    • 09:35 - 09:50 Administrative Details
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:35 Administrative Details 15'
        Speaker: J. Grassberger (The Abdus Salam ICTP (Computer Section))
    • 09:50 - 12:00 REGISTRATION
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:50 REGISTRATION 2h10'
    • 09:50 - 12:00 Registration Formalities (Fermi Building)
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:50 Registration Formalities (Fermi Building) 2h10'
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 14:15 Paradigms in Prediction of Critical Phenomena
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:30 Paradigms in Prediction of Critical Phenomena 45'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Keilis-Borok (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:15 - 14:25 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:15 BREAK 10'
    • 14:25 - 15:10 Socio-economic Predictions
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:25 Socio-economic Predictions 45'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Keilis-Borok (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:10 - 15:25 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:10 BREAK 15'
    • 15:25 - 16:10 Basic Properties of Earthquakes and Their Sequences
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:25 Basic Properties of Earthquakes and Their Sequences 45'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Kossobokov (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 16:10 - 16:30 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 16:10 Coffee Break 20'
    • 16:30 - 18:00 Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 16:30 Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises 1h30'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
        Material: lecture notes
    • 18:00 - 19:30 GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 18:00 GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises 1h30'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
        Material: lecture notes
    • 19:30 - 20:30 DINNER
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 19:30 DINNER 1h0'
  • Tuesday, 4 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Characterizing Temporal Variability of an Earthquake Sequence
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Characterizing Temporal Variability of an Earthquake Sequence 45'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Kossobokov (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 09:55 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:45 BREAK 10'
    • 09:55 - 10:40 Electromagnetic Emissions During Rock Loading and Fracture, First Precursors Recorded
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:55 Electromagnetic Emissions During Rock Loading and Fracture, First Precursors Recorded 45'
        Speaker: Prof. M. Caputo (Universita\)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 12:00 Pattern Recognition Methods
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:10 Pattern Recognition Methods 50'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Soloviev (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 15:45 Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:30 Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises 2h15'
    • 15:45 - 16:15 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 15:45 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:15 - 17:00 Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 16:15 Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises 45'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
    • 17:00 - 18:30 GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 17:00 GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises 1h30'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
        Material: lecture notes
    • 18:30 - 19:00 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 18:30 BREAK 30'
    • 19:00 - 21:00 Get Together
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 19:00 Get Together 2h0'
  • Wednesday, 5 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Application of Pattern Recognition Methods to Problems Related to Earthquake Prediction
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Application of Pattern Recognition Methods to Problems Related to Earthquake Prediction 45'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Soloviev (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 09:55 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:45 BREAK 10'
    • 09:55 - 10:40 Memory and Reciprocity in the Flux Through a Porous Slab
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:55 Memory and Reciprocity in the Flux Through a Porous Slab 45'
        Speaker: Prof. M. Caputo (Universita\)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 12:00 Atmospheric Low-Frequency Variability (LVF): Observations & Elementary Theory
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:10 Atmospheric Low-Frequency Variability (LVF): Observations & Elementary Theory 50'
        Speaker: Prof. M. Ghil (Ecole Normale Sup‚rieure)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 14:45 GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 13:30 GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises 1h15'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikov
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:45 - 16:15 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 15:45 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:15 - 17:00 Algorithm for Prediction of the Subsequent Strong Earthquake (SSE)
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 16:15 Algorithm for Prediction of the Subsequent Strong Earthquake (SSE) 45'
        Speaker: Dr. I. Vorobieva (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 17:00 - 17:15 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 17:00 BREAK 15'
    • 17:15 - 19:30 GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 17:15 GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises 2h15'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
        Material: lecture notes
    • 19:30 - 20:30 DINNER
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 19:30 DINNER 1h0'
  • Thursday, 6 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Atmospheric LFV: Weather Regimes, Oscillations & Prediction. Part I
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Atmospheric LFV: Weather Regimes, Oscillations & Prediction. Part I 45'
        Speaker: Prof. M. Ghil (Ecole Normale Sup‚rieure)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 09:55 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:45 BREAK 10'
    • 09:55 - 10:40 Atmospheric LFV: Weather Regimes, Oscillations & Prediction. Part II
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:55 Atmospheric LFV: Weather Regimes, Oscillations & Prediction. Part II 45'
        Speaker: Prof. M. Ghil (Ecole Normale Sup‚rieure)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 12:00 Fault Networks in Earthquake Prediction
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:10 Fault Networks in Earthquake Prediction 50'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Keilis-Borok (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 14:15 New Approaches to the Electro-magnetic Precursors
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:30 New Approaches to the Electro-magnetic Precursors 45'
        Speaker: Dr. D. Stanica (Institute of Geodynamics, Romanian Academy of Sciences)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:15 - 14:25 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:15 BREAK 10'
    • 14:25 - 15:10 Modeling of Block-and-Fault System Dynamics
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:25 Modeling of Block-and-Fault System Dynamics 45'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Soloviev (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:10 - 15:20 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:10 BREAK 10'
    • 15:20 - 16:05 Prediction of the Subsequent Strong Earthquake in Nine Regions of the World: Results of Monitoring 1989-2005
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:20 Prediction of the Subsequent Strong Earthquake in Nine Regions of the World: Results of Monitoring 1989-2005 45'
        Speaker: Dr. I. Vorobieva (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
    • 16:05 - 16:30 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 16:05 Coffee Break 25'
    • 16:30 - 19:30 Pattern Recognition - Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 16:30 Pattern Recognition - Exercises 3h0'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
        Material: lecture notes
    • 19:30 - 20:30 DINNER
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 19:30 DINNER 1h0'
    • 20:30 - 21:45 Pattern Recognition - Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 20:30 Pattern Recognition - Exercises 1h15'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
  • Friday, 7 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 11:00 GROUP A - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 09:00 GROUP A - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises 2h0'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, I.Vorobieva
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:15 GROUP A - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 11:30 GROUP A - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises 45'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, I.Vorobieva
    • 12:15 - 13:45 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:15 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:45 - 14:35 Cracks and Crashes: Warnings from Time Series
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:45 Cracks and Crashes: Warnings from Time Series 50'
        Speaker: Dr. M. Ausloos (University of Liege)
    • 14:35 - 14:45 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:35 BREAK 10'
    • 14:45 - 15:30 Modeling of Block Structure Dynamics and Seismicity for the Tibet-Himalayan Region
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:45 Modeling of Block Structure Dynamics and Seismicity for the Tibet-Himalayan Region 45'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Soloviev (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:30 - 15:35 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:30 BREAK 5'
    • 15:35 - 16:20 Spherical Block Model
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:35 Spherical Block Model 45'
        Speaker: Dr. V. Rozenberg (Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 16:20 - 16:45 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 16:20 Coffee Break 25'
    • 16:45 - 19:30 GROUP B - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 16:45 GROUP B - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises 2h45'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, I.Vorobieva
    • 19:30 - 20:30 DINNER
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 19:30 DINNER 1h0'
  • Saturday, 8 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Earthquake Catalogs Analysis: Examples from Different Data Sets
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Earthquake Catalogs Analysis: Examples from Different Data Sets 45'
        Speaker: Dr. A. Peresan (University of Trieste)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 09:55 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:45 BREAK 10'
    • 09:55 - 10:40 Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs for Earthquake Prediction Purposes
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:55 Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs for Earthquake Prediction Purposes 45'
        Speaker: Dr. A. Peresan (University of Trieste)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:40 - 10:50 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 10:40 BREAK 10'
    • 10:50 - 11:35 Seismic Energy Release and the Prediction of Moderate Size Earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 10:50 Seismic Energy Release and the Prediction of Moderate Size Earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius 45'
        Speaker: Dr. A. Peresan (University of Trieste)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 18:00 Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:30 Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Exercises 4h30'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
        Material: lecture notes
  • Monday, 10 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Complex Networks of Earthquakes
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Complex Networks of Earthquakes 45'
        Speaker: Dr. M. Baiesi (Institute for Theoretical Physics, K.U.Leuven)
    • 09:45 - 09:55 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:45 BREAK 10'
    • 09:55 - 10:40 Precursor motifs in earthquake networks
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:55 Precursor motifs in earthquake networks 45'
        Speaker: Dr. M. Baiesi (Institute for Theoretical Physics, K.U.Leuven)
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 12:00 Time correlations in models of self-organized criticality
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:10 Time correlations in models of self-organized criticality 50'
        Speaker: Dr. M. Baiesi (Institute for Theoretical Physics, K.U.Leuven)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 14:15 Unified Laws in Seismicity: Existence and Optimal Spatial Scaling. Part I
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:30 Unified Laws in Seismicity: Existence and Optimal Spatial Scaling. Part I 45'
        Speaker: Prof. G. Molchan (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:15 - 14:25 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:15 BREAK 10'
    • 14:25 - 15:10 Unified Laws in Seismicity: Existence and Optimal Spatial Scaling. Part II
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:25 Unified Laws in Seismicity: Existence and Optimal Spatial Scaling. Part II 45'
        Speaker: Prof. G. Molchan (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:10 - 15:20 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:10 BREAK 10'
    • 15:20 - 16:05 Earthquake prediction: Algorithms
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:20 Earthquake prediction: Algorithms 45'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Kossobokov (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 16:05 - 16:30 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 16:05 Coffee Break 25'
    • 16:30 - 19:30 GROUP A - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 16:30 GROUP A - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises 3h0'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
    • 19:30 - 20:30 DINNER
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 19:30 DINNER 1h0'
    • 20:30 - 21:45 GROUP A - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 20:30 GROUP A - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises 1h15'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
  • Tuesday, 11 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Integrated Disaster Risk Management as an Innovation of Science and Technology: Issues, Methods, and Challenges. Part I
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Integrated Disaster Risk Management as an Innovation of Science and Technology: Issues, Methods, and Challenges. Part I 45'
        Speaker: Prof. N. Okada (Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto Univer)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 09:55 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:45 BREAK 10'
    • 09:55 - 10:40 Integrated Disaster Risk Management as an Innovation of Science and Technology: Issues, Methods, and Challenges. Part II
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:55 Integrated Disaster Risk Management as an Innovation of Science and Technology: Issues, Methods, and Challenges. Part II 45'
        Speaker: Prof. N. Okada (Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto Univer)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 12:00 Integrated Disaster Risk Management as an Innovation of Science and Technology: Issues, Methods, and Challenges. Part III
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:10 Integrated Disaster Risk Management as an Innovation of Science and Technology: Issues, Methods, and Challenges. Part III 50'
        Speaker: Prof. N. Okada (Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto Univer)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:00 - 14:00 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 2h0'
    • 14:00 - 16:30 Special Session on Disaster Prediction and Prevention
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:00 Special Session on Disaster Prediction and Prevention 2h30'
    • 16:30 - 17:00 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 16:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 17:00 - 18:00 Special Session on Disaster Prediction and Prevention
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 17:00 Special Session on Disaster Prediction and Prevention 1h0'
    • 19:30 - 20:30 DINNER
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 19:30 DINNER 1h0'
  • Wednesday, 12 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Earthquake prediction: Verification Problem
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Earthquake prediction: Verification Problem 45'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Kossobokov (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 09:55 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:45 BREAK 10'
    • 09:55 - 10:40 Earthquake prediction: Accuracy and Limitations
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:55 Earthquake prediction: Accuracy and Limitations 45'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Kossobokov (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 12:00 Modeling of Dynamics and Seismicity for the Global System of Tectonic Plates
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:10 Modeling of Dynamics and Seismicity for the Global System of Tectonic Plates 50'
        Speaker: Dr. V. Rozenberg (Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 14:15 Rise of Seismicity Correlation Range Before Large Events Displayed by Earthquake Chains
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:30 Rise of Seismicity Correlation Range Before Large Events Displayed by Earthquake Chains 45'
        Speaker: Prof. P. Shebalin (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:15 - 14:25 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:15 BREAK 10'
    • 14:25 - 15:10 Estimating False Alarm and Random Success Probabilities for Predictions by the RTP Algorithm
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:25 Estimating False Alarm and Random Success Probabilities for Predictions by the RTP Algorithm 45'
        Speaker: Prof. P. Shebalin (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:10 - 15:20 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:10 BREAK 10'
    • 15:20 - 16:05 Block Structure Modeling of Dynamics and Seismicity in the Italian Area and Surroundings
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:20 Block Structure Modeling of Dynamics and Seismicity in the Italian Area and Surroundings 45'
        Speaker: Dr. I. Vorobieva (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 16:05 - 16:30 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 16:05 Coffee Break 25'
    • 16:30 - 19:30 GROUP B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 16:30 GROUP B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises 3h0'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
    • 19:30 - 20:30 DINNER
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 19:30 DINNER 1h0'
    • 20:30 - 21:45 GROUP B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 20:30 GROUP B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises 1h15'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
  • Thursday, 13 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Prediction Experiment in Italy and Hazard Scenarios. Part I
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Prediction Experiment in Italy and Hazard Scenarios. Part I 45'
        Speaker: Prof. G.F. Panza (University of Trieste; The Abdus Salam ICTP)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 09:55 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:45 BREAK 10'
    • 09:55 - 10:40 Prediction Experiment in Italy and Hazard Scenarios. Part II
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:55 Prediction Experiment in Italy and Hazard Scenarios. Part II 45'
        Speaker: Prof. G.F. Panza (University of Trieste; The Abdus Salam ICTP)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 12:00 Microseism Activity and Equilibrium Fluctuations
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:10 Microseism Activity and Equilibrium Fluctuations 50'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Correig (Universitat de Barcelona)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 14:15 Unexplored Possibilities for Disasters Prediction
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:30 Unexplored Possibilities for Disasters Prediction 45'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Keilis-Borok (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:15 - 14:25 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:15 BREAK 10'
    • 14:25 - 15:10 Earthquake Occurrence (the Seismic Catalog)
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:25 Earthquake Occurrence (the Seismic Catalog) 45'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Correig (Universitat de Barcelona)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:10 - 15:20 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:10 BREAK 10'
    • 15:20 - 16:05 Real-time prediction of earthquakes: State-of-the-art and Perspectives
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 15:20 Real-time prediction of earthquakes: State-of-the-art and Perspectives 45'
        Speaker: Prof. V. Kossobokov (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 16:05 - 16:30 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 16:05 Coffee Break 25'
    • 16:30 - 19:30 GROUP A - The Algorithms ?M8? and ?Mendocino Scenario? - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 16:30 GROUP A - The Algorithms ?M8? and ?Mendocino Scenario? - Computer Exercises 3h0'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
    • 19:30 - 20:30 DINNER
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 19:30 DINNER 1h0'
    • 20:30 - 21:45 GROUP A - The Algorithms ?M8? and ?Mendocino Scenario? - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 20:30 GROUP A - The Algorithms ?M8? and ?Mendocino Scenario? - Computer Exercises 1h15'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
  • Friday, 14 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Earthquake Prediction (a Physical Approach) Part I
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Earthquake Prediction (a Physical Approach) Part I 45'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Correig (Universitat de Barcelona)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 09:55 BREAK
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:45 BREAK 10'
    • 09:55 - 10:40 Earthquake Prediction (a Physical Approach) Part II
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:55 Earthquake Prediction (a Physical Approach) Part II 45'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Correig (Universitat de Barcelona)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:40 - 11:10 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 10:40 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:10 - 12:00 Computational Geodynamics: Problems, Methods, Results and Perspectives
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:10 Computational Geodynamics: Problems, Methods, Results and Perspectives 50'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 14:15 Buoyancy-Driven Contemporary Tectonic Stress and Intermediate-Depth Seismicity in Europe
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:30 Buoyancy-Driven Contemporary Tectonic Stress and Intermediate-Depth Seismicity in Europe 45'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:15 - 15:00 Variational Data Assimilation in Dynamics of the Earth\'s Mantle: Theory and Applications
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:15 Variational Data Assimilation in Dynamics of the Earth\'s Mantle: Theory and Applications 45'
        Speaker: Prof. A. Ismail-Zadeh (International Institute of Earthquake prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:00 - 15:30 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House (Lower Level 1)
      • 15:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 15:30 - 19:30 GROUP B - The Algorithms ?M8? and ?Mendocino Scenario? - Computer Exercises
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 15:30 GROUP B - The Algorithms ?M8? and ?Mendocino Scenario? - Computer Exercises 4h0'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A.Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
    • 19:30 - 20:30 DINNER
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 19:30 DINNER 1h0'
  • Saturday, 15 October 2005
    • 09:00 - 12:00 Final Consultations, Distribution of the Software
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 09:00 Final Consultations, Distribution of the Software 3h0'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
    • 12:00 - 13:30 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 12:00 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 13:30 - 15:00 Final Consultations, Distribution of the Software
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 13:30 Final Consultations, Distribution of the Software 1h30'
        Speaker: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
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