Description |
The paper attempts to make a review of the existing economic model designed to address the impact of integrated assessment of global climate change. The existing model is of the nested CES type in the production and demand structure. The algorithm used by these models is of the Newton-Raphson variety. With the use of cumulative variables, homotopy parameterization, and with certain closure rules, Pant (2002) has provided a new approach to address and solve the intertemporal AGE model. He argues that with his methodology, any static and recursively dynamic model could be turned out into an intertemporal dynamic model from the benchmark data. It should be noted that cumulative investment concept were used in the development planning literature to estimate the capital output ratio where reliable investment figure by origin and destination were unavailable. It will be a useful to the planners to project the needs of future capital stock more realistically. In this paper, we will review the salient features of the GTAP_ER, GTEM and Pant Model. The former two are recursive dynamic model and the later one is an open economy Solow type intertemporal growth model. The paper tries to review the various approaches followed in the recursive and dynamic CGE model. It compares the BAU scenario of the major regions of the world in the areas of energy and carbon emissions for the next 50 years derived from momentum or pseudo calibrations. In many of the existing models, carbon emission and carbon sinks are not separately modeled, but given their different life times, it may be useful to separate them from the policy point of view. To address the problems of integrated assessment of global climate change, we need really a global solvers. But the algorithm used to date are optimal to address the local task only. In the literature, an alternative to the current algorithm are the algorithm based on homotopy ideas. Equally important aspect which needs serious attention from all the stake holders is to improve the quality of existing benchmark data and elasticity parameters. AGE modelers need large number of elasticity parameters in both the product and factor market, these parameters are very scanty. I have implemented open economy one sector Solow growth models with the approximate figure for Nepal. This was run with WINGEM of the GEMPACK suite. It shows the policy scenario for Nepal with the various rate of growth of the labor supply. The model converges towards the exogenous growth rate at the end of model horizon. With the use of cumulative variables as the homotopy parameter, the model generates steady state equilibrium of the dynamic economy. All those interested are welcome to attend. Participation is free of charge. |
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: AN ENQUIRY INTO THE EXISTING MODELS AND ALGORITHM
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