Nowcasting and Forecasting Magnetospheric Electrodynamic Parameters

Two fundamental objectives of magnetospheric physics include building realistic physical models of the state and behaviour of the magnetosphere and the design of schemes to nowcast the state and potentially forecast the evolution of the magnetosphere. Many years ago scientists started to devise parameters (proxies or indices) which aid in categorizing magnetospheric properties and deriving systematic aspects of its behaviour. It is now possible to nowcast the state of the magnetosphere (describing its actual state) using a comprehensive suite of near-real-time observations. In principle it is even possible to forecast the evolution of the magnetosphere (though with limited accuracy) using observations from solar and solar wind monitors such as the ACE and SOHO spacecraft. Recent attempts and developments of forecast schemes are outlined in order to prepare for the afternoon lab class.