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Conference and School on Predictability of Natural Disasters for our Planet in Danger. A System View: Theory, Models, Data Analysis | (smr 1849)
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  • Monday, 25 June 2007
    • 08:15 - 09:15 REGISTRATION
      • 08:15 REGISTRATION 1h0'
    • 09:15 - 09:30 OPENING SESSION
      • 09:15 OPENING SESSION 15'
        Speaker: K.R. Sreenivasan, F. Giorgi
    • 09:30 - 10:45 The predictability of weather and climate
      • 09:30 The predictability of weather and climate 1h15'
        Speaker: J. Shukla (George Mason University (GMU), USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:45 - 11:15 Coffee Break
      • 10:45 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:15 - 12:30 The oceans as a source of climate variability and predictability
      • 11:15 The oceans as a source of climate variability and predictability 1h15'
        Speaker: M. Ghil (Ecole Normale Superieure, France)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:30 - 14:15 Lunch
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h45'
    • 14:15 - 15:30 Estimating the probability of extreme tropical rainfall anomalies from ensemble seasonal prediction systems
      • 14:15 Estimating the probability of extreme tropical rainfall anomalies from ensemble seasonal prediction systems 1h15'
        Speaker: F. Molteni (ECMWF, UK)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee Break
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:00 - 17:15 Improving climate prediction and our understanding of the human interactions with climate: The goals of WCRP
      • 16:00 Improving climate prediction and our understanding of the human interactions with climate: The goals of WCRP 1h15'
        Speaker: A. Henderson-Sellers (World Climate Research Programme, Switzerland)
    • 19:30 - 20:30 Small Reception
      • 19:30 Small Reception 1h0'
  • Tuesday, 26 June 2007
    • 09:00 - 10:15 Climate change and European heat waves
      • 09:00 Climate change and European heat waves 1h15'
        Speaker: C. Schaer (Institute for Atmospheric & Climate Science, Switzerland)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:15 - 11:00 The end-to-end climate change attribution problem: from emissions to impacts
      • 10:15 The end-to-end climate change attribution problem: from emissions to impacts 45'
        Speaker: D. Stone (University of Oxford, UK)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:45 Extreme events: problems of predictability and preparedness in lieu of fundamental equations
      • 11:30 Extreme events: problems of predictability and preparedness in lieu of fundamental equations 1h15'
        Speaker: V. Keilis-Borok (MITPAN, Russia)
    • 12:45 - 14:30 Lunch
      • 12:45 Lunch 1h45'
    • 14:30 - 15:45 Forecasting natural hazards: Earthquakes, wildfires, landslides and floods
      • 14:30 Forecasting natural hazards: Earthquakes, wildfires, landslides and floods 1h15'
        Speaker: D. Turcotte (University of California Davis, USA)
    • 15:45 - 16:15 Coffee Break
      • 15:45 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:15 - 17:30 Tsunami: Hazards from earthquakes, landslides, and asteroid impacts
      • 16:15 Tsunami: Hazards from earthquakes, landslides, and asteroid impacts 1h15'
        Speaker: S. Ward (University of California, Santa Cruz, USA)
        Material: lecture notes movie
    • 17:30 - 18:00 Closing
      • 17:30 Closing 30'
  • Wednesday, 27 June 2007
    • 09:00 - 10:00 Predictability of earthquakes
      • 09:00 Predictability of earthquakes 1h0'
        Speaker: V. Keilis-Borok (MITPAN, Russia & UCLA, USA)
    • 10:00 - 11:00 Earthquake forecasting: Fault based versus seismicity based
      • 10:00 Earthquake forecasting: Fault based versus seismicity based 1h0'
        Speaker: D. Turcotte (University of California Davis, USA)
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:30 Earthquake forecasting: Fault based versus seismicity based
      • 11:30 Earthquake forecasting: Fault based versus seismicity based 1h0'
        Speaker: D. Turcotte (University of California Davis, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 16:00 Volcanic hazard and eruption forecast: from empirical to physical approach
      • 14:00 Volcanic hazard and eruption forecast: from empirical to physical approach 2h0'
        Speaker: G. De Natale (Osservatorio Vesuviano, INGV, Italy)
    • 16:00 - 16:30 Coffee Break
      • 16:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:30 - 17:30 Discussion of Future Projects
      • 16:30 Discussion of Future Projects 1h0'
  • Thursday, 28 June 2007
    • 09:00 - 10:00 An electric precursor: laboratory field and earthquake observations
      • 09:00 An electric precursor: laboratory field and earthquake observations 1h0'
        Speaker: M. Caputo (Universita' degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza", Italy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:00 - 11:00 Possibilities opened by new data bases - GPS
      • 10:00 Possibilities opened by new data bases - GPS 1h0'
        Speaker: G.F. Panza (Dept. of Earth Sciences (DST) & ICTP, Italy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:30 Possibilities opened by new data bases - GPS
      • 11:30 Possibilities opened by new data bases - GPS 1h0'
        Speaker: G.F. Panza (Dept. of Earth Sciences (DST) & ICTP, Italy)
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 15:00 Similarity & Difference in sequences of starquakes, solar flares, and earthquakes
      • 14:00 Similarity & Difference in sequences of starquakes, solar flares, and earthquakes 1h0'
        Speaker: V. Kossobokov (MITPAN, Russia)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:00 - 16:00 Discussion of Future Projects
      • 15:00 Discussion of Future Projects 1h0'
    • 16:00 - 16:30 Coffee Break
      • 16:00 Coffee Break 30'
  • Friday, 29 June 2007
    • 09:00 - 11:00 Lg coda Q variation in continental crust
      • 09:00 Lg coda Q variation in continental crust 2h0'
        Speaker: B. Mitchell (Saint Louis University, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:30 Quantitative earthquake prediction: twenty years of real-time application and testing
      • 11:30 Quantitative earthquake prediction: twenty years of real-time application and testing 1h0'
        Speaker: V. Kossobokov (MITPAN, Russia)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 15:00 What next?
      • 14:00 What next? 1h0'
        Speaker: V. Keilis-Borok (MITPAN, Russia & UCLA, USA)
        Material: notations
    • 15:00 - 16:00 Discussion of Future Projects
      • 15:00 Discussion of Future Projects 1h0'
    • 16:00 - 16:30 Coffee Break
      • 16:00 Coffee Break 30'
  • Monday, 2 July 2007
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Dynamical Systems
      • 09:00 Dynamical Systems 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies & George Mason University, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Dynamical Systems
      • 09:45 Dynamical Systems 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies & George Mason University, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Dynamical Systems
      • 11:00 Dynamical Systems 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies & George Mason University, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:45 - 12:00 Discussion
      • 11:45 Discussion 15'
    • 12:00 - 14:00 Lunch
      • 12:00 Lunch 2h0'
    • 14:00 - 14:45 Weather Predictability in Large Models
      • 14:00 Weather Predictability in Large Models 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus (George Mason University (GMU), USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:45 - 15:30 Weather Predictability in Large Models
      • 14:45 Weather Predictability in Large Models 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus (George Mason University (GMU), USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee Break
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:00 - 16:45 Weather Predictability in Large Models
      • 16:00 Weather Predictability in Large Models 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus (George Mason University (GMU), USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 16:45 - 17:00 Discussion
      • 16:45 Discussion 15'
  • Tuesday, 3 July 2007
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Theory of Error Growth
      • 09:00 Theory of Error Growth 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies & George Mason University, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Theory of Error Growth
      • 09:45 Theory of Error Growth 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies & George Mason University, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Theory of Error Growth
      • 11:00 Theory of Error Growth 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies & George Mason University, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:45 - 12:00 Discussion
      • 11:45 Discussion 15'
    • 12:00 - 14:00 Lunch
      • 12:00 Lunch 2h0'
    • 14:00 - 14:45 Predictability of mid-latitude weather; Predictability of extreme events in mid-latitudes
      • 14:00 Predictability of mid-latitude weather; Predictability of extreme events in mid-latitudes 45'
        Speaker: R. Buizza (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, UK)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:45 - 15:30 Predictability of mid-latitude weather; Predictability of extreme events in mid-latitudes
      • 14:45 Predictability of mid-latitude weather; Predictability of extreme events in mid-latitudes 45'
        Speaker: R. Buizza (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, UK)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee Break
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:00 - 16:45 Predictability of mid-latitude weather; Predictability of extreme events in mid-latitudes
      • 16:00 Predictability of mid-latitude weather; Predictability of extreme events in mid-latitudes 45'
        Speaker: R. Buizza (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, UK)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 16:45 - 17:00 Discussion
      • 16:45 Discussion 15'
  • Wednesday, 4 July 2007
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Climate Predictability
      • 09:00 Climate Predictability 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus (George Mason University (GMU), USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Climate Predictability
      • 09:45 Climate Predictability 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus (George Mason University (GMU), USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Climate Predictability
      • 11:00 Climate Predictability 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus (George Mason University (GMU), USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:45 - 12:00 Discussion
      • 11:45 Discussion 15'
    • 12:00 - 14:00 Lunch
      • 12:00 Lunch 2h0'
    • 14:00 - 14:45 Predictability of tropical weather; Predictability of extreme events in the tropics
      • 14:00 Predictability of tropical weather; Predictability of extreme events in the tropics 45'
        Speaker: K. Puri (Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC), Australia)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:45 - 15:30 Predictability of tropical weather; Predictability of extreme events in the tropics
      • 14:45 Predictability of tropical weather; Predictability of extreme events in the tropics 45'
        Speaker: K. Puri (Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC), Australia)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee Break
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:00 - 16:45 Predictability of tropical weather; Predictability of extreme events in the tropics
      • 16:00 Predictability of tropical weather; Predictability of extreme events in the tropics 45'
        Speaker: K. Puri (Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC), Australia)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 16:45 - 17:00 Discussion
      • 16:45 Discussion 15'
  • Thursday, 5 July 2007
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Predictability of ENSO
      • 09:00 Predictability of ENSO 45'
        Speaker: Ping Chang (Texas A & M University, Dept. of Oceanography, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Predictability of ENSO
      • 09:45 Predictability of ENSO 45'
        Speaker: Ping Chang (Texas A & M University, Dept. of Oceanography, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Predictability of ENSO
      • 11:00 Predictability of ENSO 45'
        Speaker: Ping Chang (Texas A & M University, Dept. of Oceanography, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:45 - 12:00 Discussion
      • 11:45 Discussion 15'
    • 12:00 - 14:00 Lunch
      • 12:00 Lunch 2h0'
    • 14:00 - 14:45 Linear vs. Non-Linear Perspectives in Atmospheric Predictability
      • 14:00 Linear vs. Non-Linear Perspectives in Atmospheric Predictability 45'
        Speaker: G. Branstator (National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:45 - 15:30 Linear vs. Non-Linear Perspectives in Atmospheric Predictability
      • 14:45 Linear vs. Non-Linear Perspectives in Atmospheric Predictability 45'
        Speaker: G. Branstator (National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee Break
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:00 - 16:45 Linear vs. Non-Linear Perspectives in Atmospheric Predictability
      • 16:00 Linear vs. Non-Linear Perspectives in Atmospheric Predictability 45'
        Speaker: G. Branstator (National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA)
    • 16:45 - 17:00 Discussion
      • 16:45 Discussion 15'
  • Friday, 6 July 2007
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Roles of internal vs. SST-forced variability in seasonal prediction and predictability
      • 09:00 Roles of internal vs. SST-forced variability in seasonal prediction and predictability 45'
        Speaker: In-Sik Kang (Climate Environment System Research Center, Seoul National Univ., Korea)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Roles of internal vs. SST-forced variability in seasonal prediction and predictability
      • 09:45 Roles of internal vs. SST-forced variability in seasonal prediction and predictability 45'
        Speaker: In-Sik Kang (Climate Environment System Research Center, Seoul National Univ., Korea)
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Roles of internal vs. SST-forced variability in seasonal prediction and predictability
      • 11:00 Roles of internal vs. SST-forced variability in seasonal prediction and predictability 45'
        Speaker: In-Sik Kang (Climate Environment System Research Center, Seoul National Univ., Korea)
    • 12:00 - 13:30 Lunch
      • 12:00 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 15:30 Participant Presentations
      • 14:00 Participant Presentations 1h30'
    • 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee Break
      • 15:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 16:00 - 17:00 Ph.d Study Opportunities at George Mason University on Climate Dynamics
      • 16:00 Ph.d Study Opportunities at George Mason University on Climate Dynamics 1h0'
        Speaker: D. Straus (George Mason University (GMU), USA)
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