Description |
Previous TTAs on the seasonal predictability in tropical regions have been successful to initiate seasonal prediction researches and contributed to application in the developing countries. Also, targeting research and operational groups were highly appreciated by both sides and appeared to contribute efficient capacity building of seasonal prediction activities in developing countries. The experience of several TTAs suggested that two aspects of seasonal prediction are still required to be addressed for TTA to be more fruitful. Many operational groups, even though they are producing forecast, showed a lack of fundamental knowledge of the predictability of climate system such as initial error growth, ensemble prediction, and boundary forced signal versus noise, etc. This lack of basic knowledge hindered understanding of practical applications and its further development. Therefore, one major theme of this TTA will be providing dedicated lessons on the theoretical and fundamental aspects of climate predictability. On the other hand, it is also necessary to keep aiming practical usefulness of seasonal prediction because it has immediate social needs. Recently, researches and applications of the seasonal prediction expand its horizon into different spatial and temporal scale, partly because of obtaining higher practical utility. In particular, climate variability within a season is a state-of-art research area with high social value in planning agricultural, hydrological activities. As an advanced continuation of previous TTA on the seasonal predictability, applications on the intraseasonal predictability by the statistical approach will be another focus in this TTA. For both themes, series of laboratory experiment will be carried on using simple dynamical models, sophisticated GCM outputs, as well as statistical methods with observation dataset. Therefore, the 2009 TTA aims are the following; 1. Provide dedicated lessons on fundamental knowledge of predictability of weather and climate system 2. Provide an updated overview on current research on the seasonal predictability 3. Support knowledge on the intraseasonal variability and opportunity to develop simple prediction scheme through the laboratory sessions. 4. Co-ordinate co-operation between the research and operational groups of the developing countries based on the laboratory projects. |
Targeted Training Activity: Predictability of Weather and Climate: Theory and Applications to Intraseasonal Variability | (smr 2050)
Go to day
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08:30 - 09:00
Registration
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) - 08:30 Registration 30'
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09:00 - 09:30
Welcome & "Introduction to Predictability of Weather and Climate"
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:00
Welcome & "Introduction to Predictability of Weather and Climate"
30'
Speaker: J. Shukla (President, COLA/IGMU, Calverton, USA)
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09:00
Welcome & "Introduction to Predictability of Weather and Climate"
30'
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09:30 - 10:15
Lecture 1
The Global Atmospheric Circulation: Observations
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:30
Lecture 1
The Global Atmospheric Circulation: Observations
45'
Speaker: D. Straus (Center For Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, COLA GMU) Material: lecture notes
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09:30
Lecture 1
The Global Atmospheric Circulation: Observations
45'
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10:15 - 11:00
Lecture 2
Introduction to Linear Regression
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
10:15
Lecture 2
Introduction to Linear Regression
45'
Speaker: Tim DelSole (Center For Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, COLA GMU, USA)
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10:15
Lecture 2
Introduction to Linear Regression
45'
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11:00 - 11:30
Coffee Break
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
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11:30 - 12:15
Lecture 3
Predictability Theory: Predictability and Chaos
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
11:30
Lecture 3
Predictability Theory: Predictability and Chaos
45'
Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy (Center For Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, COLA GMU) Material: lecture notes
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11:30
Lecture 3
Predictability Theory: Predictability and Chaos
45'
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12:30 - 14:00
LUNCH
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 12:30 LUNCH 1h30'
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14:00 - 17:30
Laboratory and Team Projects
Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. -
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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08:30 - 09:00
Registration
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09:30 - 10:15
Lecture 1
Predictability Theory: Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
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09:30
Lecture 1
Predictability Theory: Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
45'
Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy Material: lecture notes
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09:30
Lecture 1
Predictability Theory: Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
45'
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10:15 - 11:00
Lecture 2
Predictability Theory: Linear Stability Analysis
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10:15
Lecture 2
Predictability Theory: Linear Stability Analysis
45'
Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy Material: lecture notes
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10:15
Lecture 2
Predictability Theory: Linear Stability Analysis
45'
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11:00 - 11:30
Coffee Break
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
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11:00 - 11:45
Lecture 3
Introduction to R
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11:00
Lecture 3
Introduction to R
45'
Speaker: Tim DelSole
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11:00
Lecture 3
Introduction to R
45'
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11:45 - 12:30
Lecture 4
Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Over?tting
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11:45
Lecture 4
Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Over?tting
45'
Speaker: Tim DelSole
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11:45
Lecture 4
Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Over?tting
45'
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12:30 - 14:00
Lunch
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
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14:00 - 17:30
Laboratory and Team Projects
Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. -
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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09:30 - 10:15
Lecture 1
Predictability Theory: Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Modeling the Weather and Climate
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:00
Lecture 1
Modeling the Weather and Climate
45'
Speaker: D. Straus Material: lecture notes
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09:00
Lecture 1
Modeling the Weather and Climate
45'
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09:45 - 10:30
Lecture 2
Predictability Theory: Structure of Errors
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:45
Lecture 2
Predictability Theory: Structure of Errors
45'
Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy Material: lecture notes
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09:45
Lecture 2
Predictability Theory: Structure of Errors
45'
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10:30 - 11:00
Coffee Break
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
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11:00 - 11:45
Lecture 3
Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Screening
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
11:00
Lecture 3
Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Screening
45'
Speaker: Tim DelSole
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11:00
Lecture 3
Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Screening
45'
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11:45 - 12:30
Lecture 4
Statistical prediction: Verification
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
11:45
Lecture 4
Statistical prediction: Verification
45'
Speaker: Tim DelSole
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11:45
Lecture 4
Statistical prediction: Verification
45'
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12:30 - 14:00
Lunch
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
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14:00 - 17:30
Laboratory and Team Projects
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
-
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Modeling the Weather and Climate
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Predictability Theory: Growth of Random Errors
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09:00
Lecture 1
Predictability Theory: Growth of Random Errors
45'
Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy Material: lecture notes
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09:00
Lecture 1
Predictability Theory: Growth of Random Errors
45'
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09:45 - 10:30
Lecture 2
Errors in Forecasts: Roles of Initial States, Model Errors, and Chaos
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09:45
Lecture 2
Errors in Forecasts: Roles of Initial States, Model Errors, and Chaos
45'
Speaker: D. Straus Material: lecture notes
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09:45
Lecture 2
Errors in Forecasts: Roles of Initial States, Model Errors, and Chaos
45'
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10:30 - 11:00
Coffee Break
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
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11:00 - 11:45
Lecture 3
Climate Predictability on Seasonal Time Scale: Role of Boundary Forcing
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11:00
Lecture 3
Climate Predictability on Seasonal Time Scale: Role of Boundary Forcing
45'
Speaker: D. Straus Material: lecture notes
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11:00
Lecture 3
Climate Predictability on Seasonal Time Scale: Role of Boundary Forcing
45'
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11:45 - 12:30
Lecture 4
Seasonal Mean Predictability over the Pacific - North American Region
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11:45
Lecture 4
Seasonal Mean Predictability over the Pacific - North American Region
45'
Speaker: D. Straus Material: lecture notes
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11:45
Lecture 4
Seasonal Mean Predictability over the Pacific - North American Region
45'
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12:30 - 14:00
Lunch
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
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14:00 - 14:45
Laboratory and Team Projects
Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. -
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
45'
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14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
45'
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Predictability Theory: Growth of Random Errors
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: From one day to one month
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09:00
Lecture 1
Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: From one day to one month
45'
Speaker: F. Molteni (ECMWF, UK) Material: lecture notes
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09:00
Lecture 1
Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: From one day to one month
45'
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09:45 - 10:30
Lecture 2
Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: The seasonal scale and beyond
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09:45
Lecture 2
Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: The seasonal scale and beyond
45'
Speaker: F. Molteni Material: lecture notes
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09:45
Lecture 2
Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: The seasonal scale and beyond
45'
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10:30 - 11:00
Coffee Break
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
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11:00 - 11:45
Lecture 3
Predictability and teleconnections in the ECMWF seasonal forecasts
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11:00
Lecture 3
Predictability and teleconnections in the ECMWF seasonal forecasts
45'
Speaker: F. Kucharksi (ICTP)
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11:00
Lecture 3
Predictability and teleconnections in the ECMWF seasonal forecasts
45'
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11:45 - 12:30
Lecture 4
Predictability of ENSO and Monsoon
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11:45
Lecture 4
Predictability of ENSO and Monsoon
45'
Speaker: E. Jin
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11:45
Lecture 4
Predictability of ENSO and Monsoon
45'
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12:30 - 14:00
Lunch
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
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14:00 - 17:30
Laboratory and Team Projects
Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. -
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
-
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: From one day to one month
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - I
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:00
Lecture 1
Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - I
45'
Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy
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09:00
Lecture 1
Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - I
45'
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09:45 - 10:30
Lecture 2
Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - II
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:45
Lecture 2
Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - II
45'
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09:45
Lecture 2
Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - II
45'
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10:30 - 11:00
Coffee Break
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
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11:00 - 11:45
Lecture 3
Seasonal Prediction
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
11:00
Lecture 3
Seasonal Prediction
45'
Speaker: I.-S. Kang (Seoul Nat'l Univ., Korea)
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11:00
Lecture 3
Seasonal Prediction
45'
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11:45 - 12:30
Lecture 4
The APCC Seasonal Prediction and Statistical Downscaling
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
11:45
Lecture 4
The APCC Seasonal Prediction and Statistical Downscaling
45'
Speaker: S. Hameed (APEC Climate Center)
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11:45
Lecture 4
The APCC Seasonal Prediction and Statistical Downscaling
45'
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12:30 - 14:00
Lunch
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
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14:00 - 17:30
Laboratory and Team Projects
Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. -
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - I
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Introduction to Empirical Orthogonal Functions
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:00
Lecture 1
Introduction to Empirical Orthogonal Functions
45'
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09:00
Lecture 1
Introduction to Empirical Orthogonal Functions
45'
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09:45 - 10:30
Lecture 2
Introduction to Co-variance
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:45
Lecture 2
Introduction to Co-variance
45'
Speaker: D. Straus
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09:45
Lecture 2
Introduction to Co-variance
45'
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10:30 - 11:00
Coffee Break
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
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11:00 - 11:45
Lecture 3
The Madden Julian Oscillations - Observations
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
11:00
Lecture 3
The Madden Julian Oscillations - Observations
45'
Speaker: J. H. Yoo (ICTP)
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11:00
Lecture 3
The Madden Julian Oscillations - Observations
45'
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11:45 - 12:30
Lecture 4
Impact of MJO on the Intra-seasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
11:45
Lecture 4
Impact of MJO on the Intra-seasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall
45'
Speaker: D. S. Pai (India Meteorological Dept., Pune)
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11:45
Lecture 4
Impact of MJO on the Intra-seasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall
45'
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12:30 - 14:00
Lunch
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
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14:00 - 17:30
Laboratory and Team Projects
Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. -
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
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09:00 - 09:45
Lecture 1
Introduction to Empirical Orthogonal Functions
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09:00 - 10:30
Participant Presentations
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:00
Participant Presentations
1h30'
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09:00
Participant Presentations
1h30'
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10:30 - 11:00
Coffee Break
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
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11:00 - 11:45
Lecture 3
Diagnosis of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation: Practice
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
11:00
Lecture 3
Diagnosis of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation: Practice
45'
Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy
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11:00
Lecture 3
Diagnosis of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation: Practice
45'
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11:45 - 12:30
Lecture 4
The Madden Julian Oscillation - Predictability
Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
11:45
Lecture 4
The Madden Julian Oscillation - Predictability
45'
Speaker: J. H. Yoo
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11:45
Lecture 4
The Madden Julian Oscillation - Predictability
45'
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12:30 - 14:00
Lunch
Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria - 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
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14:00 - 17:30
Laboratory and Team Projects
Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. -
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
-
14:00
Laboratory and Team Projects
3h30'
-
09:00 - 10:30
Participant Presentations
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09:00 - 09:00
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Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) -
09:00
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Material: Programme
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09:00
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09:00 - 09:00
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