Scientific Calendar Event



Description
Previous TTAs on the seasonal predictability in tropical regions have been successful to initiate seasonal prediction researches and contributed to application in the developing countries. Also, targeting research and operational groups were highly appreciated by both sides and appeared to contribute efficient capacity building of seasonal prediction activities in developing countries. The experience of several TTAs suggested that two aspects of seasonal prediction are still required to be addressed for TTA to be more fruitful. 

Many operational groups, even though they are producing forecast, showed a lack of fundamental knowledge of the predictability of climate system such as initial error growth, ensemble prediction, and boundary forced signal versus noise, etc. This lack of basic knowledge hindered understanding of practical applications and its further development. Therefore, one major theme of this TTA will be providing dedicated lessons on the theoretical and fundamental aspects of climate predictability. On the other hand, it is also necessary to keep aiming practical usefulness of seasonal prediction because it has immediate social needs. Recently, researches and applications of the seasonal prediction expand its horizon into different spatial and temporal scale, partly because of obtaining higher practical utility. In particular, climate variability within a season is a state-of-art research area with high social value in planning agricultural, hydrological activities. As an advanced continuation of previous TTA on the seasonal predictability, applications on the intraseasonal predictability by the statistical approach will be another focus in this TTA. For both themes, series of laboratory experiment will be carried on using simple dynamical models, sophisticated GCM outputs, as well as statistical methods with observation dataset. 

Therefore, the 2009 TTA aims are the following;

1. Provide dedicated lessons on fundamental knowledge of predictability of weather and climate system
2. Provide an updated overview on current research on the seasonal predictability
3. Support knowledge on the intraseasonal variability and opportunity to develop simple prediction scheme through the laboratory sessions.
4. Co-ordinate co-operation between the research and operational groups of the developing countries based on the laboratory projects. 
Go to day
  • Monday, 27 July 2009
    • 08:30 - 09:00 Registration
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 08:30 Registration 30'
    • 09:00 - 09:30 Welcome & "Introduction to Predictability of Weather and Climate"
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:00 Welcome & "Introduction to Predictability of Weather and Climate" 30'
        Speaker: J. Shukla (President, COLA/IGMU, Calverton, USA)
    • 09:30 - 10:15 Lecture 1 The Global Atmospheric Circulation: Observations
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:30 Lecture 1 The Global Atmospheric Circulation: Observations 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus (Center For Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, COLA GMU)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:15 - 11:00 Lecture 2 Introduction to Linear Regression
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 10:15 Lecture 2 Introduction to Linear Regression 45'
        Speaker: Tim DelSole (Center For Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, COLA GMU, USA)
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:15 Lecture 3 Predictability Theory: Predictability and Chaos
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:30 Lecture 3 Predictability Theory: Predictability and Chaos 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy (Center For Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, COLA GMU)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:30 - 14:00 LUNCH
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 LUNCH 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Laboratory and Team Projects
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:00 Laboratory and Team Projects 3h30'
  • Tuesday, 28 July 2009
    • 09:30 - 10:15 Lecture 1 Predictability Theory: Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
      • 09:30 Lecture 1 Predictability Theory: Nonlinear Dynamical Systems 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:15 - 11:00 Lecture 2 Predictability Theory: Linear Stability Analysis
      • 10:15 Lecture 2 Predictability Theory: Linear Stability Analysis 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 11:00 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Lecture 3 Introduction to R
      • 11:00 Lecture 3 Introduction to R 45'
        Speaker: Tim DelSole
    • 11:45 - 12:30 Lecture 4 Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Over?tting
      • 11:45 Lecture 4 Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Over?tting 45'
        Speaker: Tim DelSole
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Laboratory and Team Projects
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:00 Laboratory and Team Projects 3h30'
  • Wednesday, 29 July 2009
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Lecture 1 Modeling the Weather and Climate
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:00 Lecture 1 Modeling the Weather and Climate 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Lecture 2 Predictability Theory: Structure of Errors
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:45 Lecture 2 Predictability Theory: Structure of Errors 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Lecture 3 Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Screening
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:00 Lecture 3 Pitfalls of Statistical Prediction: Screening 45'
        Speaker: Tim DelSole
    • 11:45 - 12:30 Lecture 4 Statistical prediction: Verification
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:45 Lecture 4 Statistical prediction: Verification 45'
        Speaker: Tim DelSole
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Laboratory and Team Projects
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 14:00 Laboratory and Team Projects 3h30'
  • Thursday, 30 July 2009
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Lecture 1 Predictability Theory: Growth of Random Errors
      • 09:00 Lecture 1 Predictability Theory: Growth of Random Errors 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Lecture 2 Errors in Forecasts: Roles of Initial States, Model Errors, and Chaos
      • 09:45 Lecture 2 Errors in Forecasts: Roles of Initial States, Model Errors, and Chaos 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Lecture 3 Climate Predictability on Seasonal Time Scale: Role of Boundary Forcing
      • 11:00 Lecture 3 Climate Predictability on Seasonal Time Scale: Role of Boundary Forcing 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:45 - 12:30 Lecture 4 Seasonal Mean Predictability over the Pacific - North American Region
      • 11:45 Lecture 4 Seasonal Mean Predictability over the Pacific - North American Region 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 14:45 Laboratory and Team Projects
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:00 Laboratory and Team Projects 45'
  • Friday, 31 July 2009
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Lecture 1 Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: From one day to one month
      • 09:00 Lecture 1 Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: From one day to one month 45'
        Speaker: F. Molteni (ECMWF, UK)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Lecture 2 Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: The seasonal scale and beyond
      • 09:45 Lecture 2 Ensemble predictions at ECMWF: The seasonal scale and beyond 45'
        Speaker: F. Molteni
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Lecture 3 Predictability and teleconnections in the ECMWF seasonal forecasts
      • 11:00 Lecture 3 Predictability and teleconnections in the ECMWF seasonal forecasts 45'
        Speaker: F. Kucharksi (ICTP)
    • 11:45 - 12:30 Lecture 4 Predictability of ENSO and Monsoon
      • 11:45 Lecture 4 Predictability of ENSO and Monsoon 45'
        Speaker: E. Jin
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Laboratory and Team Projects
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:00 Laboratory and Team Projects 3h30'
  • Monday, 3 August 2009
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Lecture 1 Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - I
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:00 Lecture 1 Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - I 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Lecture 2 Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - II
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:45 Lecture 2 Diagnosis of Intra-seasonal Oscillation Theory - II 45'
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Lecture 3 Seasonal Prediction
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:00 Lecture 3 Seasonal Prediction 45'
        Speaker: I.-S. Kang (Seoul Nat'l Univ., Korea)
    • 11:45 - 12:30 Lecture 4 The APCC Seasonal Prediction and Statistical Downscaling
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:45 Lecture 4 The APCC Seasonal Prediction and Statistical Downscaling 45'
        Speaker: S. Hameed (APEC Climate Center)
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Laboratory and Team Projects
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:00 Laboratory and Team Projects 3h30'
  • Tuesday, 4 August 2009
    • 09:00 - 09:45 Lecture 1 Introduction to Empirical Orthogonal Functions
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:00 Lecture 1 Introduction to Empirical Orthogonal Functions 45'
    • 09:45 - 10:30 Lecture 2 Introduction to Co-variance
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:45 Lecture 2 Introduction to Co-variance 45'
        Speaker: D. Straus
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Lecture 3 The Madden Julian Oscillations - Observations
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:00 Lecture 3 The Madden Julian Oscillations - Observations 45'
        Speaker: J. H. Yoo (ICTP)
    • 11:45 - 12:30 Lecture 4 Impact of MJO on the Intra-seasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:45 Lecture 4 Impact of MJO on the Intra-seasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall 45'
        Speaker: D. S. Pai (India Meteorological Dept., Pune)
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Laboratory and Team Projects
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:00 Laboratory and Team Projects 3h30'
  • Wednesday, 5 August 2009
    • 09:00 - 10:30 Participant Presentations
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:00 Participant Presentations 1h30'
    • 10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 10:30 Coffee Break 30'
    • 11:00 - 11:45 Lecture 3 Diagnosis of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation: Practice
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:00 Lecture 3 Diagnosis of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation: Practice 45'
        Speaker: V. Krishnamurthy
    • 11:45 - 12:30 Lecture 4 The Madden Julian Oscillation - Predictability
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 11:45 Lecture 4 The Madden Julian Oscillation - Predictability 45'
        Speaker: J. H. Yoo
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:30 Laboratory and Team Projects
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:00 Laboratory and Team Projects 3h30'
  • Thursday, 6 August 2009
    • 09:00 - 09:00 -
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
  • Friday, 7 August 2009
    • 09:00 - 09:00 STUDENT PRESENTATION OF PROJECTS
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 09:00 STUDENT PRESENTATION OF PROJECTS