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Description There has been strong interest in recent years in applying the notions of circulation regimes, weather regimes and weather types to a variety of time scales and applications, from weather forecasts to intra-seasonal anomalies to climate impacts.

The spatial scales covered by diverse classification schemes range from regional to hemispheric. There has also been an interest in applying weather types to such diverse subjects as pollution concentrations and human mortality. The purpose of the workshop will be to bring together researchers who apply classification techniques to describe and verify weather forecasts, climate anomalies over a range of time scales, and applications of human dimension.

The variety of mathematical and statistical techniques used will be presented, leading to cross-fertilization of techniques and methods.

Topics of interest will include:
• What are the common techniques used to describe large-scale circulation regimes and local weather types (e.g.cluster analysis, hidden Markov method, pdf analysis), and how are they related to each other?
• How are regimes used to characterize and verify forecasts from operational forecasting centers?
• How much is really understood about measuring the significance of deviations from Gaussian behavior, and the robustness of clustering / weather typing?
• Will climate change lead to an alteration of the frequency of occurrence of well-define regimes, or the modification of the whole regime structure?
• How can we describe coherent propagating structures, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) in terms of regimes? “Hands-on” training sessions will be held in weather typing and circulation regime analysis, using data sets such as ERA-40 or NCEP reanalyses, and simple classification techniques which can be applied to their home regions for problems of local interest.

Material

School and Workshop on Weather Regimes and Weather Types in the Tropics and Extra-tropics: Theory and Application to Prediction of Weather and Climate | (smr 2496)
Go to day
  • Monday, 21 October 2013
    • 08:30 - 09:00 Registration & Welcome 
      After you have Registered: Administrative Formalities (daily living allowances/travel reimbursements, bank transactions, etc.) at the E. Fermi Building - just above the Leonardo Da Vinci Bldg.
- Meal coupons: balance will be issued by the Guesthouse Receptions one day after the on-line registration is completed according to the following timetables:
GALILEO Guesthouse: Tuesday to Friday 10.00-12.00 & 13.00-15.00
ADRIATICO Guesthouse: Tuesday To Friday 13.00-15.00

PLEASE NOTE: There will be extra shuttle bus services to and from the ICTP buildings ONLY on the first day of the activity. Please see attached time schedule.
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
    • 09:00 - 10:00 An Introduction to Circulation Regimes and Weather Types: Bridging Weather and Climate
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 An Introduction to Circulation Regimes and Weather Types: Bridging Weather and Climate 1h0'
        Speaker: David Straus (George Mason University, GMU & COLA, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:00 - 11:00 An Introduction to Self-­Organizing Maps and K-­Means Cluster Analysis: Part 1
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 10:00 An Introduction to Self-­Organizing Maps and K-­Means Cluster Analysis: Part 1 1h0'
        Speaker: Steven Feldstein (Pennsylvania State University, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 11:00 Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:30 An Introduction to Self-­Organizing Maps and K-­Means Cluster Analysis: Part 2
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:30 An Introduction to Self-­Organizing Maps and K-­Means Cluster Analysis: Part 2 1h0'
        Speaker: Steven Feldstein
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Laboratory Session 
      Lab demonstrations
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:00 Laboratory Session 3h0'
    • 18:00 - 19:00 Ice-breaker
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 18:00 Ice-breaker 1h0'
  • Tuesday, 22 October 2013
    • 08:30 - 09:15 An  Introduction  to  the  Circulation  of  the  Tropics”
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 08:30 An  Introduction  to  the  Circulation  of  the  Tropics” 45'
        Speaker: Cristiana Stan (George Mason University, GMU & COLA, USA)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 09:15 - 10:15 ‘Waves vs.‘particles in the atmosphere’s phase space: A pathway to long-­range forecasting?
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:15 ‘Waves vs.‘particles in the atmosphere’s phase space: A pathway to long-­range forecasting? 1h0'
        Speaker: Andrew Robertson (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, IRI, USA)
    • 10:15 - 10:45 Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 10:15 Break 30'
    • 10:45 - 11:45 “Climate Downscaling: Scientific problem, methods and examples”
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 10:45 “Climate Downscaling: Scientific problem, methods and examples” 1h0'
        Speaker: Andrew Robertson
    • 11:45 - 12:45 Operational regime verification used in the ECMWF forecasting system
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:45 Operational regime verification used in the ECMWF forecasting system 1h0'
        Speaker: Susanna Corti (Istituto per le Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (ISAC-CNR), Italy)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:45 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:45 Lunch 1h15'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Laboratory Session 
      Coffee Break (15:30-16:00): served outside the InfoLab
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:00 Laboratory Session 3h0'
  • Wednesday, 23 October 2013
    • 09:00 - 10:00 The Madden-­Julian Oscillation and the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 The Madden-­Julian Oscillation and the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations 1h0'
        Speaker: Cristiana Stan
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:00 - 11:00 Introduction to space-time clustering - Part 1
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 10:00 Introduction to space-time clustering - Part 1 1h0'
        Speaker: Christian Franzke (British Antarctic Survey, UK)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 11:00 Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:30 Introduction to space-time clustering - Part 2
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:30 Introduction to space-time clustering - Part 2 1h0'
        Speaker: Christian Franzke
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 17:00 Laboratory Session 
      Coffee Break (15:30-16:00): served outside the InfoLab
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:00 Laboratory Session 3h0'
  • Thursday, 24 October 2013
    • 09:00 - 10:00 Hemispheric and Regional Circulation Regimes  
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Hemispheric and Regional Circulation Regimes   1h0'
        Speaker: Franco Molteni (European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:00 - 11:00 The observed and simulated monsoon intra-seasonal variability over the Asia-Pacific: The Role of Air–Sea Coupling
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 10:00 The observed and simulated monsoon intra-seasonal variability over the Asia-Pacific: The Role of Air–Sea Coupling 1h0'
        Speaker: Jagadish Shukla (Center for Ocean, Land, Atmosphere Studies, COLA/GMU)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 11:00 Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:30 Monsoon intra-seasonal active/break cycles, Part 1: Observed Structure
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:30 Monsoon intra-seasonal active/break cycles, Part 1: Observed Structure 1h0'
        Speaker: Rajib Chattopadhyay (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, IITM-Pune)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:30 - 13:30 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h0'
    • 13:30 - 14:30 Monsoon intra-seasonal active/break cycles, Part 2: Techniques to Isolate MISO
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:30 Monsoon intra-seasonal active/break cycles, Part 2: Techniques to Isolate MISO 1h0'
        Speaker: Rajib Chattopadhyay
        Material: lecture notes
    • 14:30 - 17:30 Laboratory Session 
      Coffee Break (15:30-16:00): served outside the InfoLab
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
      • 14:30 Laboratory Session 3h0'
    • 19:00 - 19:00 Official Reception
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 19:00 Official Reception
  • Friday, 25 October 2013
    • 09:00 - 10:00 Characterization of the Euro-­Atlantic Weather Regimes: understanding variability at different timescales"
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Characterization of the Euro-­Atlantic Weather Regimes: understanding variability at different timescales" 1h0'
        Speaker: Irene Polo (University of Reading)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 10:00 - 11:00 Does external forcing alter the structure of atmospheric circulation regimes?
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 10:00 Does external forcing alter the structure of atmospheric circulation regimes? 1h0'
        Speaker: David Straus
        Material: lecture notes
    • 11:00 - 11:30 Break
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 11:00 Break 30'
    • 11:30 - 12:30 Weather regimes in the tropics at regional scale: the example of ENSO and Indonesia
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 11:30 Weather regimes in the tropics at regional scale: the example of ENSO and Indonesia 1h0'
        Speaker: Vincent Moron (Aix Marseille Universite', France)
        Material: lecture notes
    • 12:30 - 13:45 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h15'
    • 13:45 - 16:00 Student Presentations & School Closing
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 13:45 Student Presentations & School Closing 2h15'
        Material: Presentations
  • Monday, 28 October 2013
    • 08:30 - 12:30 Welcome - Workshop Organizers
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 08:30 Welcome - Workshop Organizers 4h0'
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 16:10 Session 2:
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:00 Session 2: 2h10'
    • 16:10 - 17:30 Poster Session
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 16:10 Poster Session 1h20'
  • Tuesday, 29 October 2013
    • 09:00 - 12:30 Chairperson: I. Polo
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Chairperson: I. Polo 3h30'
    • 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30'
    • 14:00 - 15:30 Session 2:
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 14:00 Session 2: 1h30'
    • 15:30 - 16:30 Weather regime dependent verification of ECMWF ensemble forecast over the Euro-Atlantic sector
      Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
      • 15:30 Weather regime dependent verification of ECMWF ensemble forecast over the Euro-Atlantic sector 1h0'
        Speaker: Susanna Corti
        Material: lecture notes
    • 18:45 - 20:15 Reception
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
      • 18:45 Reception 1h30'
  • Wednesday, 30 October 2013
    • 09:00 - 12:00 Chair: D. Straus  
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 09:00 Chair: D. Straus   3h0'
    • 12:20 - 12:35 Adjourn & Issuance of Diplomas
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:20 Adjourn & Issuance of Diplomas 15'
    • 12:35 - 13:05 Description of Climate Dynamics PhD Program at George Mason University
      Location: Adriatico Guest House Kastler Lecture Hall
      • 12:35 Description of Climate Dynamics PhD Program at George Mason University 30'
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