Scientific Calendar Event



Description
Since 2004, the ICTP Earth System Physics section has conducted “Targeted Training Activity (TTA),” a specialized educational activity with a team-oriented nature. This team-oriented aspect is aiming to develop groups of scientists who can work together on a specific goal within a developing-country institution. Previous TTAs on the seasonal predictability in tropical regions have been successful to initiate seasonal climate prediction researches and contributed to operational application in the developing countries. The topic of the TTA 2014 will be the challenges in monsoon prediction. Current state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems show some skill in predicting the variations of the monsoons at various lead times, ranging from weeks to months. However, this prediction skill is still much lower that the potential prediction skill that may be estimated form models and theoretical estimates. Indeed, it seems that predictive skill for seasonal predictions in many monsoon regions stems exclusively from the correct prediction of ENSO several months ahead. The aim of the TTA 2014 is to explore the scientific bases of potential other sources of predictability, such as Indian Ocean, West Pacific and Atlantic SSTs. Further sources of predictability may be related to land-surface condition, snow cover (in case of Indian monsoon), wave propagation from the extratropics as well as aerosols. The workshop aims at addressing all of these topics in lectures in the mornings and, with lab-sessions in the afternoons.
Go to day
  • Monday, 23 June 2014
    • 09:00 - 17:30
      • 09:00 Registration- Adriatico Guesthouse, Lower Level 1 30' ( Adriatico Guest House - Giambiagi Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1) )
      • 09:30 Welcome, Introduction 15' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: J. Shukla, F. Kucharski
        Material: Presentation
      • 09:45 "Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate from Days to Decades, Part 1: Weather - Intraseasonal - Seasonal" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: J. Shukla
        Material: lecture notes
      • 10:30 "Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate from Days to Decades, Part 2: Seasonal - Decadal - Climate Change" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: J. Shukla
        Material: lecture notes
      • 11:15 Coffee/Tea break 15' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:30 "Seasonal Prediction of Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with Coupled Models: Problems and Prospects" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: J. Shukla
        Material: lecture notes
      • 12:15 Lunch 1h45' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 TTA Laboratory Sessions 3h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        - 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee/Tea  break  (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe' (upper level)
      • 17:30 Ice-Breaker ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
  • Tuesday, 24 June 2014
    • 08:30 - 17:00
      • 08:30 Free time for ADMINISTRATIVE FORMALITIES (daily living allowances/travel reimbursements,bank transactions, etc.)atthe E.Fermi Building-­ just above the Leonardo Da Vinci Bldg. 1h15' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 09:45 ENSO and MJO Predictions and their Predictability 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: In-sik Kang
        Material: lecture notes
      • 10:30 Coffee/Tea break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:00 "Dynamics of summer monsoon active phases and onset over Pakistan" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Syed
        Material: lecture notes
      • 11:45 "A nonlinear dynamical perspective on the predictability and prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: S. Dwivedi
        Material: lecture notes
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 TTA Laboratory Sessions 3h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        - 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee/Tea  break  (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe' (upper level)
  • Wednesday, 25 June 2014
    • 09:30 - 19:00
      • 09:30 "The Challenge of Predicting the South Asian Summer Monsoon : A Way Forward" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: B.N. Goswami
        Material: lecture notes
      • 10:15 "Exploring New Sources of Predictability for the South Asian Summer Monsoon" - I 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: B.N. Goswami
        Material: lecture notes
      • 11:00 Coffee/Tea break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 11:30 "The ECMWF ensemble prediction systems: from the medium-range to the seasonal scale" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Material: lecture notes
      • 12:15 Discussion Session 15' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 TTA Laboratory Sessions 3h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        -15:30 - 16:00Coffee/Tea  break  (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe' (upper level)
      • 19:00 Conference Dinner at Mignon Restaurant ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        - located on the road to the side of the Adriatico Hotel
  • Thursday, 26 June 2014
    • 09:30 - 17:00
      • 09:30 "Long-range predictions of tropical rainfall with the ECMWF ensemble systems" - I 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Molteni
        Material: lecture notes
      • 10:15 "Exploring New Sources of Predictability for the South Asian Summer Monsoon" - II 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: B.N. Goswami
        Material: lecture notes
      • 11:00 Coffee/Tea break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:30 "Long-range predictions of tropical rainfall with the ECMWF ensemble systems" - II 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Molteni
        Material: lecture notes
      • 12:15 Discussion Session 15' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 TTA Laboratory Sessions 3h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        - 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee/Tea  break  (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe'
  • Friday, 27 June 2014
    • 09:30 - 17:00
      • 09:30 TTA success stories: A. Pandey/S. Dwivedi, F. Syed, I-S. Kang, M. Almazroui, IITM, PMD, BMD 2h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Material: lecture notes
      • 10:30 Coffee/Tea break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 12:00 Lunch 2h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 TTA Laboratory Sessions 3h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        - 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee/Tea  break  (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe'
  • Monday, 30 June 2014
    • 09:30 - 17:00
      • 09:30 "Why Coupled models generally exhibit good Prediction Skill with Feb. Initial Conditions?" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: Suryachandra R. Anguluri
      • 10:15 "How to improve Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in current Coupled Models?" - Part 1 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: Suryachandra R. Anguluri
        Material: lecture notes
      • 11:00 Coffee/Tea break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:30 "Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the South Asian monsoon, Indian Ocean and Pacific" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Kucharski
        Material: lecture notes
      • 12:15 "South America climate under modified Antarctic topography" 20' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: F. Justino
        Material: lecture notes
      • 12:35 Lunch 1h25' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 TTA Laboratory Sessions 3h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        - 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee/Tea  break  (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe' (upper level)
  • Tuesday, 1 July 2014
    • 09:30 - 19:00
      • 09:30 "The physical basis of predictions" - (1) 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: A. Navarra
      • 10:15 "The physical basis of predictions" - (2) 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: A. Navarra
      • 11:00 Coffee/Tea break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:30 "How to improve Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in current Coupled Models?" - Part 2 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: Suryachandra R. Anguluri
      • 12:15 Discussion Session 15' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 TTA Laboratory Sessions 3h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        - 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee/Tea  break  (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe' (upper level)
      • 19:00 Reception ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
  • Wednesday, 2 July 2014
    • 09:30 - 17:00
      • 09:30 "Variability and physics of the Bay of Bengal in relation to the Monsoon" - I 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: D. Sengupta
      • 10:15 "Variability and physics of the Bay of Bengal in relation to the Monsoon" - II 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: D. Sengupta
      • 11:00 Coffee/Tea break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:30 "Rethinking the Role of Dynamical Feedbacks in Atlantic Niño Variability" 20' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: H. Nnamchi
      • 11:50 "Potential Predictability of the Sea-Surface Temperature forced Equatorial East African Short Rains Interannual Variability in the 20th Century" 20' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: T. Bahaga
      • 12:10 "Coupled Model Seasonal Prediction Experimentation" (tentative title) 20' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: A. Ehsan
      • 12:30 "Error growth and modes of variability in the daily forecasts of South Asian monsoon from NCEP Climate Forecast System" 20' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: S. Rai
      • 12:50 Lunch 1h10' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 TTA Laboratory Sessions (Info Lab., Adriatico, lower level 1) 3h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab. )
        - 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee/Tea  break  (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe' (upper level)
  • Thursday, 3 July 2014
    • 09:30 - 17:00
      • 09:30 "Operational Long-Range Forecasting in India" - I 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: M. N. Rajeevan
      • 10:15 "Operational Long-Range Forecasting in India " - II 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: M. N. Rajeevan
      • 11:00 Coffee/Tea break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:30 "Role of Land Surface Processes on Monsoon Variability" 45' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Speaker: M. N. Rajeevan
      • 12:15 (Discussion Session) 15' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
      • 12:30 Lunch 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria )
      • 14:00 TTA Laboratory Sessions - 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee/Tea break (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe' (upper level) 3h0' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        - 15:30 - 16:00 Coffee/Tea  break  (AGH Cafeteria - served area near Cafe' (upper level)
  • Friday, 4 July 2014
    • 09:00 - 12:30
      • 09:00 Presentations by the participants 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Material: Presentations
      • 10:30 Coffee/Tea Break 30' ( Adriatico Guest House (Terrace) )
      • 11:00 Presentations by the participants 1h30' ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )
        Material: Presentations
      • 12:30 TTA Wrap-up & Diploma Ceremony ( Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall )