Starts 23 Jun 2014
Ends 4 Jul 2014
Central European Time
ICTP
AGH (Giambiagi Lecture Hall)
Strada Costiera, 11 I - 34151 Trieste (Italy)
Since 2004, the ICTP Earth System Physics section has conducted “Targeted Training Activity (TTA),” a specialized educational activity with a team-oriented nature. This team-oriented aspect is aiming to develop groups of scientists who can work together on a specific goal within a developing-country institution. Previous TTAs on the seasonal predictability in tropical regions have been successful to initiate seasonal climate prediction researches and contributed to operational application in the developing countries. The topic of the TTA 2014 will be the challenges in monsoon prediction. Current state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems show some skill in predicting the variations of the monsoons at various lead times, ranging from weeks to months. However, this prediction skill is still much lower that the potential prediction skill that may be estimated form models and theoretical estimates. Indeed, it seems that predictive skill for seasonal predictions in many monsoon regions stems exclusively from the correct prediction of ENSO several months ahead. The aim of the TTA 2014 is to explore the scientific bases of potential other sources of predictability, such as Indian Ocean, West Pacific and Atlantic SSTs. Further sources of predictability may be related to land-surface condition, snow cover (in case of Indian monsoon), wave propagation from the extratropics as well as aerosols. The workshop aims at addressing all of these topics in lectures in the mornings and, with lab-sessions in the afternoons.

Organizers

J. Shukla, F. Kucharski, B.N. Goswami, S. Anguluri.
ICTP Local Organizer: F. Kucharski

Co-sponsors