Targeted Training Activity: Statistical Methods in Seasonal Prediction

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Material

TTA Attendees OK TTA Editions

Targeted Training Activity: Statistical Methods in Seasonal Prediction | (smr 2158)

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Monday, 2 August 2010

09:00 - 10:00 Registration: Adriatico Guesthouse - Lower Level 1

Location: Adriatico Guest House - Kastler Lecture Hall Area (Lower Level 1)
- 09:00 Registration: Adriatico Guesthouse - Lower Level 1 1h0'
10:00 - 10:30 J. Shukla, T. DelSole & Jin-ho Yoo
- 10:00 J. Shukla, T. DelSole & Jin-ho Yoo 30'

10:30 - 11:30 Linear regression and associated hypothesis tests

10:30 Linear regression and associated hypothesis tests 1h0'

Speaker:	T. Delsole (COLA-GMU, Maryland, USA)
Material:	Intro Linear Regression

11:30 - 12:30 Overfitting

11:30 Overfitting 1h0'

Speaker:	T. Delsole
Material:	Overfitting

12:30 - 13:55 Lunch

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 12:30 Lunch 1h25'
14:00 - 17:00 Introduction to R (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00)

Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
- 14:00 Introduction to R (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00) 3h0'

Tuesday, 3 August 2010

09:00 - 10:15 Screening

09:00 Screening 1h15'

Speaker:	T. Delsole
Material:	Screening

10:15 - 11:00 Coffee Break

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 10:15 Coffee Break 45'

11:00 - 12:15 Predictor Selection

11:00 Predictor Selection 1h15'

Speaker:	M. Tippett (IRI, Palisades (NY), USA)
Material:	Predictor Selection

12:15 - 14:00 Lunch

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 12:15 Lunch 1h45'
14:00 - 17:00 Construction of a Nino index lagged linear regression prediction model (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00)

Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
- 14:00 Construction of a Nino index lagged linear regression prediction model (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00) 3h0'

Wednesday, 4 August 2010

09:00 - 10:15 Principal Component Analysis

09:00 Principal Component Analysis 1h15'

Speaker:	T. Delsole
Material:	Principle Component Analysis

10:15 - 12:15 Coffee Break & Free-time for Administrative Formalities (daily living allowances/travel reimbursements, bank transactions, etc.) at the E. Fermi Building - just above the Leonardo Da Vinci Bldg.

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 10:15 Coffee Break & Free-time for Administrative Formalities (daily living allowances/travel reimbursements, bank transactions, etc.) at the E. Fermi Building - just above the Leonardo Da Vinci Bldg. 2h0'
12:15 - 14:00 Lunch

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 12:15 Lunch 1h45'

14:00 - 15:00 PCR, CCA, and other Pattern Based Regression Techniques

14:00 PCR, CCA, and other Pattern Based Regression Techniques 1h0'

Speaker:	M. Tippett
Material:	Pattern Regression

15:00 - 18:00 Calculation of EOFs (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00)

Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
- 15:00 Calculation of EOFs (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00) 3h0'
19:00 - 19:00 Reception

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 19:00 Reception

Thursday, 5 August 2010

09:00 - 10:15 Pitfalls of Linear Regression

09:00 Pitfalls of Linear Regression 1h15'

Speaker:	M. Tippett
Material:	Pitfalls

10:15 - 11:00 Coffee Break

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 10:15 Coffee Break 45'

11:00 - 12:15 Seasonal prediction at IRI

11:00 Seasonal prediction at IRI 1h15'

Speaker:	M. Tippett
Material:	Probability Forecasts

12:15 - 14:00 Lunch

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 12:15 Lunch 1h45'
14:00 - 17:00 Project on Pitfalls of Regression Prediction (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00)

Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
- 14:00 Project on Pitfalls of Regression Prediction (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00) 3h0'

Friday, 6 August 2010

09:00 - 10:15 Regression Patterns

09:00 Regression Patterns 1h15'

Speaker:	T. Delsole
Material:	Regression Patterns

10:15 - 11:00 Coffee Break

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 10:15 Coffee Break 45'

11:00 - 12:15 Asia-Pacific Climate Information Network through APCC Services

11:00 Asia-Pacific Climate Information Network through APCC Services 1h15'

Speaker:	Soo-Jin Sohn (APCC, Korea)
Material:	Presentation I Presentation II

12:15 - 14:00 Lunch

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 12:15 Lunch 1h45'
14:00 - 17:00 APCC Data System & Construct linear regression prediction using a few EOFs of SST as predictors (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00)

Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
- 14:00 APCC Data System & Construct linear regression prediction using a few EOFs of SST as predictors (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00) 3h0'

Monday, 9 August 2010

09:00 - 10:15 Lessons in Statistical Prediction

09:00 Lessons in Statistical Prediction 1h15'

Speaker:	A. Barnston (IRI, Palisades (NY), USA)
Material:	Regression Colinearity

10:15 - 11:00 Coffee Break

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 10:15 Coffee Break 45'

11:00 - 12:15 Verification measures

11:00 Verification measures 1h15'

Speaker:	A. Barnston
Material:	Verification of Climate Forecasts

12:15 - 14:00 Lunch

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 12:15 Lunch 1h45'
14:00 - 17:00 Underfitting and Collinearity/Introduction to APCC seasonal climate system (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00)

Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
- 14:00 Underfitting and Collinearity/Introduction to APCC seasonal climate system (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00) 3h0'

Tuesday, 10 August 2010

09:00 - 10:15 Seasonal forecast calibration and combination: Part I

09:00 Seasonal forecast calibration and combination: Part I 1h15'

Speaker:	C. Coelho (Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais I.N.P.E., Sao Paulo, Brazil)
Material:	Seasonal forecast calibration

10:15 - 11:00 Coffee Break

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 10:15 Coffee Break 45'

11:00 - 12:15 Seasonal forecast calibration and combination: Part II

11:00 Seasonal forecast calibration and combination: Part II 1h15'

Speaker:	(C. Coelho)
Material:	Seasonal forecast calibration & combination II

12:15 - 14:00 Lunch

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 12:15 Lunch 1h45'
14:00 - 17:00 Group Projects on Seasonal Prediction (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00)

Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
- 14:00 Group Projects on Seasonal Prediction (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00) 3h0'

Wednesday, 11 August 2010

09:00 - 10:15 Interpretation of Canonical Correlation Analysis Results

09:00 Interpretation of Canonical Correlation Analysis Results 1h15'

Speaker:	A. Barnston
Material:	Interpretation of CCA

10:15 - 11:00 Coffee Break

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 10:15 Coffee Break 45'

11:00 - 12:15 Seasonal prediction at IRI

11:00 Seasonal prediction at IRI 1h15'

Speaker:	A. Barnston
Material:	Predicition at IRI

12:15 - 14:00 Lunch

Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
- 12:15 Lunch 1h45'
14:00 - 17:00 Group Projects on Seasonal Prediction (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00)

Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
- 14:00 Group Projects on Seasonal Prediction (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00) 3h0'

Thursday, 12 August 2010
- 09:00 - 10:15 Forecast verification with the Brier Score and realiability diagram
  - 09:00 Forecast verification with the Brier Score and realiability diagram 1h15'
    
    Speaker: C. Coelho
- 10:15 - 11:00 Coffee Break
  
  Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
  - 10:15 Coffee Break 45'
- 11:00 - 12:15 Multi-model ensemble verification examples
  - 11:00 Multi-model ensemble verification examples 1h15'
    
    Speaker: C. Coelho
- 12:15 - 14:00 Lunch
  
  Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
  - 12:15 Lunch 1h45'
- 14:00 - 17:00 Group Presentations (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00)
  
  Location: Adriatico Guest House Informatics Lab.
  - 14:00 Group Presentations (Coffee Break: 15:15-16:00) 3h0'
Friday, 13 August 2010
- 09:00 - 10:15 Seasonal prediction at CPTEC
  - 09:00 Seasonal prediction at CPTEC 1h15'
    
    Speaker: C. Coelho
- 10:15 - 11:00 Coffee Break
  
  Location: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
  - 10:15 Coffee Break 45'
- 11:00 - 12:15 Discussion & Wrap-up (Diplomas of Attendance will also be issued)
  - 11:00 Discussion & Wrap-up (Diplomas of Attendance will also be issued) 1h15'